[Cactus Jack]

Conference Championship Games are set and new rankings will be released later tomorrow. My thoughts/predictions:

Most Likely to Win Championship:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Penn State
7. Boise State
8. Alabama

Don't see anyone outside of those eight being able to win it given the roads they'll face. Can't include a Notre Dame team who'll be no higher than 6th because I don't trust them to win three straight against playoff quality teams. Can't trust an SMU team to win what's probably a play-in against Clemson, get one of the highest seeded byes, and then win three more. Alabama has enough talent and tradition to do it but it's very unlikely that they'd be able to pull it off, especially starting on the road, either way, I wouldn't want to be the one playing them when they have nothing to lose.


Prediction on the Committee's Bracket on 12/3:

1. Oregon (Bye)
2. Texas (Bye)
3. Boise State (Bye)
4. SMU (Bye)
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Projected Big XII Winner (Iowa State or Arizona State)
12. Projected Big XII Runner-Up (Iowa State or Arizona State)
13. Alabama
14. South Carolina
15. Miami
16. Clemson

Chose this because it gives them the most flexibility to do what they want with their final rankings regardless of the upcoming outcomes. If Georgia takes a third loss, they can move them behind Ohio State if they'd like. If Penn State takes a 2nd loss, they'll use it to justify however they'd like to rank the Big Ten so long as Oregon is highest and Indiana lowest. Leaving Miami and Clemson below the Big XII finalists get the Big XII Champion in, then gives the final at-large to the committee's choice of an Alabama, South Carolina, Miami, SMU, or Boise State (if they're upset by UNLV).

The final bracket ultimately sees the conferences split (i.e., no first round match-ups with teams from the same conference) and I suspect we ultimately see each three team bracket that leads to the semis having one SEC team, one Big Ten team, and one team from another conference, or something very close to that.


Championship Week Predictions:
#1. In the SEC & Big Ten-- Penn State upsets Oregon or Georgia beats Texas. One of those two will happen.

#2. In the ACC, Big XII, and Mountain West Conferences, there's at least one bid getting stolen by way of an upset. Most will probably think that's Clemson beating SMU and leaving the committee with a tough decision on SMU or Miami, but I'm picking UNLV over Boise State, with both getting into the playoff.

UNLV is 10-2 with wins "eh" wins over Kansas and Houston. Their two losses are to Syracuse by 3 and to Boise State by 5. If they beat a Boise State team that isn't built to play from behind, they take the auto-bid as the highest rated Group of 5 Champion. Unless Boise State gets blown out or Jeanty gets injured, I can't see the committee leaving out the Broncos when their only other loss is by three points at Oregon. It won't hurt that UNLV's two "eh" wins are against teams that finished fairly hot (Kansas beat Iowa St., BYU, and Colorado in three of the last four and Syracuse just beat Miami). Everyone associated with the anything to do with the Mountain West (other than Boise State) is probably dreaming of getting two teams in and hoping that it's something that catapults them toward becoming one of the Power 5.

If UNLV pulls it off, they're still the #12 and served up as a sacrificial lamb to #5 Oregon, Georgia, or Texas. But Boise State as the #10 or #11 would probably only be a slight Vegas underdog against a #6 or #7 ranked Notre Dame and is likely favored against a #7 Indiana.


My Prediction on the Final Bracket:
1. Texas (SEC Champion)
2. Penn State (Big Ten Champion)
3. SMU (ACC Champion)
4. Iowa State (Big XII Champion)
5. Oregon (Big Ten Runner-Up)
6. Georgia (SEC Runner-Up)
7. Tennessee (SEC)
8. Notre Dame (At-Large)
9. Ohio St. (Big Ten)
10. Boise St. (Mountain West Runner-Up)
11. Indiana (Big Ten)
12. UNLV (Mountain West Champion/At-Large Conference Champ)

*Notre Dame's loss to NIU can be used to drop them below the runner-up of the Big Ten or SEC (who was just upset) and to ultimately balance out each three team pod with one SEC, one Big Ten, and one other team.

This bracket would be pretty unfair to #1 (whether Texas or Oregon) because they'd have a tough 8/9 and then be likely to meet up with the #5 in their semi, but it would make some compelling TV early and make for a really bracket from the semis forward.


SEC Fan's Doomsday Scenario:
It would infuriate SEC fans if we see a #3. SMU or Clemson (ACC Champ) meeting the winner of #6 Notre Dame and #11 Indiana. If this happens, one pretty overrated team who hasn't performed well against the SEC in these types of games in the past will be in the semi and another bracket likely has two SEC teams beating up on each other.