[Old School Hound]

If you are wavering on your vote, BGR, consider:

[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQFOPFW0AA4...=4096x4096]

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For those who don't want to watch the above video about early voting, here's the condensed version:




According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)


Thanks, BZ.

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Summary of the video I posted:


"According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)

Early Republican voters in PA also voted early in GOP nomination process-- and were largely Nikki Haley voters. Looks like they're going for Harris. Haley NC also largely voted early. "Some of that surge... appears to be Republicans voting for Harris, not Trump." Rosenberg points to Harris spending tons of time working on crossover voting from Republican voters. If she continues to do it, chances are there's a reason.

"There really isn't any good data for the Republican Party right now," said Rosenberg. Harris up 2.5 in independent polls, while Trump is up +1 in GOP/ Red Wave polls.

Bonier says women vote more often before Election Day. That said, if Republicans are indeed voting for Trump early, you'd expect the genders to get closer. They're not. Since Dobbs, younger women and women over the age of 65 are most committed-- and most likely to vote. Expect to see a large turnout operation for young Harris women, as they haven't yet been seen in the numbers. But they're likely coming in droves.

Rosenberg cautions us not to assume Trump overperforms all public polls. 2016 was changed by Comey; before he stuck his thumb on the scale, polling seemed to be right. (Not sure how he came to that conclusion. Seems questionable, at best.) Since Dobbs, there's been a consistent Dem overperformance from polls. Outer edge of Trump coalition struggling to vote for him. The non-MAGA can't quite pull that lever. (Similar to fascists in Europe, fwiw.) Internal data shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump's ugliness. Rosenberg optimistic that Dems are much more likely to win election. "


Ty, BZ.