[Cactus Jack]

Going into this week, I'll go with:


Byes:
1. Oregon - Big 10
2. Georgia - SEC
3. Miami - ACC
4. BYU - Big XII

1st Round Host:
5. Ohio St. - Big 10
6. Texas - SEC
7. Penn St. - Big 10
8. Tennessee - SEC

Last Four In:
9. Notre Dame - At-Large
10. Boise St. - At-Large
11. Iowa St. - Big XII
12. Texas A&M - SEC



That'd give a total of four SEC teams, three Big 10 teams, two Big XII teams, two At-Large, and one ACC team. The three team pods would break down as follows:

Oregon vs. Winner of Notre Dame @ Tennessee
BYU vs. Winner of Texas A&M @ Ohio State
Miami vs. Winner of Iowa St. @ Texas
Georgia vs. Winner of Boise St. @ Penn St.

Again, tried to avoid any rematches or teams from the same conference meeting for as long as possible, as I imagine that the committee will try to do the same. Also gave weight to teams I thought they'd like to see in *cough* Notre Dame.


Could see BYU and Iowa State changing places or even Kansas State. Could also see Clemson as the second ACC team instead of a second Big XII team as well.

Notre Dame has a great shot at finishing with only one early loss to NIU. I'm not exactly sold on Army and Navy, but those wins with Texas A&M, USC, Louisville, and Georgia Tech should be enough to get a high seed.

I don't see Indiana getting in despite what they did against Nebraska; maybe I'm wrong, but their next two weeks include a trip to Michigan State and playing host to Michigan, then a bye before going to Ohio State and hosting Purdue. If the Hoosiers do get in, I could see the fairytale coming to an end in a very bad way.

Boise St. probably runs the table and with their only loss being at Oregon, they're in a really good place to host a first round game if everyone ahead of them keeps beating up on each other.

Tennessee might actually benefit from a tough road loss to Georgia. That would give them two losses, but they still have the head-to-head against Alabama and otherwise winning out would give them another resume win against Vanderbilt. The Vols wins against NC State, Florida, and Oklahoma won't carry the weight we thought they would at the beginning of the season, but I don't see two road losses keeping them out. Most importantly, a close loss to Georgia all but keeps them out of the SEC Championship game and a good chance at taking a lopsided loss there.

The fates of Texas and Texas A&M are intertwined. They'll meet at least one time this season in College Station on November 30th and it's extremely likely that it will be to determine who meets Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M currently leads the SEC with no conference losses while Georgia and Texas trail with one SEC loss apiece. The Ags have South Carolina, a bye, New Mexico State, and Auburn in the build-up. The Horns have a bye this week before meeting Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

I don't see Alabama or Ole Miss getting into the playoff. 'Bama hasn't looked great since the first half of the Georgia game. Ole Miss' could have survived a road loss to LSU but their home loss to Kentucky gets worse by the day.

LSU is in a weird position. Short of winning the SEC or chaos ahead of them, last week's loss at A&M and an early loss to USC will probably end up being too much no matter what they do from here. But they have manageable games with Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma remaining, so winning out and finishing with one loss in the SEC isn't entirely out of the question. Would need to look into the tiebreaking scenarios, but wondering if there's a way that they could leapfrog an A&M team (who lost to Texas) or otherwise find a way into the SEC Championship.

Still time for lots of things to happen, but we should be to the point of basically knowing the scenarios that would fill out 75% of the bracket at this time in two to three weeks.