[Cactus Jack]

Updated as of 10/15:

1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Iowa St.

5. Ohio St.
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Penn St.
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise St.


Remaining Games with Greatest Impact:
Texas vs. Georgia
Ohio St. vs. Penn St.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
LSU vs. Alabama
LSU vs. Texas A&M
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Notre Dame vs. USC


Likely Out of Contention:
Ole Miss
USC
Oklahoma


Left out scenarios involving the Big XII and ACC champions, though I do think that a Miami or Iowa State could lose their conference championship but still make it in as the #10 or #11. Notre Dame's schedule leaves plenty to be desired and their loss to NIU is terrible, but I see their sway being enough to land the #11 seed so long as they are able to win out.

Seeing LSU make it despite games at Arkansas and Texas A&M, then a home game against Alabama in three straight weeks along with trap games at Florida and against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma may be wishful thinking for Tiger fans, but they only have one loss and could afford another. I still see at least two of: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU getting in alongside Texas and Georgia.

Loser of this week's Ohio State vs. Penn St. will likely slide somewhere between #7 and #10 in the final poll so long as they don't lose again. I still think at least three Big Ten teams make the field.

Tried to find a way to have no more than one SEC or Big Ten team in a three team bracket (read: no teams from the same conference meeting until the semis) but was unable to do so. As is, #9 LSU and #1 Texas could meet in the quarterfinals. There are some different scenarios where this might be avoided, but it's kind of convoluted (unless we give Georgia or Texas the #5).

Under my current projections, the semis would most likely be Texas vs. Ohio St. and Georgia vs. Oregon. Based on their entire body of work, these are probably the four best and most deserving teams.