[Hoot Gibson]

Corbin's weak district schedule of Letcher County Central (Calpreps #88), Perry County Central (#93), and Whitley County (Calpreps #98) is not going to help their chances of avoiding a 3rd round game with Boyle County. If Johnson Central beats Ashland, it will be interesting to see how the RPI treats the Redhounds. Covington Catholic is also stuck playing in an even weaker district than Corbin, but they close with weak 6A team, Campbell County.

Redhounds will be the 2 seed in the East or at worst 3 seed. So how do you think Corbin will play Boyle. Boyle will end up the top seed in the East. If All teams win out with no losses. 

Johnson Central vs Boyle
Corbin vs Ashland or Covington Catholic. 


Corbins RPI Outlook
Aug 23, '24 Pikeville 1A 8 2 - 5 .53426 W
Aug 30, '24 North Hardin 6A 2 5 - 2 .59493 W
Sep 6, '24 Lexington Catholic 3A 5 0 - 6 .40743 W
Sep 20, '24 Frederick Douglass 6A 8 3 - 3 .59745 L
Sep 27, '24 Hazard 1A 8 4 - 3 .61686 W
Oct 4, '24 Johnson Central 4A 6 5 - 2 .62065 W
Oct 11, '24 Letcher County Central 4A 8 3 - 3 .48688
Oct 18, '24 Whitley County 4A 8 3 - 3 .55960
Oct 25, '24 Perry County Central 4A 8 4 - 2 .54958
Nov 1, '24 Pulaski County 5A 8 3 - 3 .54542
https://khsaa.org/

Covington Catholic RPI outlook
Aug 23, '24 Ryle 6A 6 4 - 2 .67703 L
Aug 30, '24 Highlands 5A 6 5 - 2 .62711 L
Sep 6, '24 Simon Kenton 6A 6 3 - 3 .54155 W
Sep 13, '24 Dixie Heights 5A 6 2 - 4 .48144 W
Sep 20, '24 Beechwood 2A 5 6 - 1 .75962 W
Sep 26, '24 Holmes 4A 5 0 - 7 .32969 W
Oct 4, '24 Grant County 4A 5 4 - 2 .51155 W
Oct 18, '24 Harrison County 4A 5 1 - 5 .33775
Oct 25, '24 Mason County 4A 5 5 - 1 .56788
Nov 1, '24 Campbell County 6A 6 2 - 4 .48976
https://khsaa.org/

I didn't say that Corbin might play Boyle County in the third round. If Pulaski upsets Corbin at home, Johnson Central beats Ashland and Covington Catholic, then I'm not sure how the RPI rankings would stand. That's a lot of ifs, and I think Ashland will be favored at home over JC and Covington Catholic will probably be favored over either Ashland or JC. Obviously, Corbin will be favored over Pulaski at home, but Pulaski has made impressive improvements during the season.

 I do not see any other 4A team beating Johnson Central with that offense steam rolling honestly. I think Ashland is the mystery for me, they have to win against JC at home but thats a tall task. It takes a heck of a defense to beat that run game and I just didn't think JC was healthy last season when they played. So no shade at Ashland but they have to win against JC to prove other wise. So Covington Catholic is not like last years CC team. I got Johnson Central myself in the 4 seed only because of their RPI. Its a good thing there isn't a tournament setting like old times. I would hate to see that JC machine again if I were Corbin. 

Johnson Central has dominated the series with Ashland since Matney was named JC head coach. I believe the series is 18-3 in JC's favor. The record is a bit deceiving because several games were very competitive and won in the last couple of minutes of the game. Ashland usually plays JC tough, especially at Putnam. (One of Ashland's home wins was on a disputed FG call.) I hope that you are right about JC's offense, but Ashland's coaches have played JC twice every year during which they have been in the same district, so they know what to expect. It is very unlikely that JC will match its offensive output against Corbin when they play Ashland.