[Orange Blaze]

First off, thanks to Belichick for the correction regarding the Pikeville-Campbellsville game from last year.  He's correct, the game was never tied.  That was my bad.

Secondly, I think the most likely scenario in terms of the RPI in the East is 1. Sayre, 2. Raceland, 3. Hazard, 4. Pikeville.  Now, that's assuming all 4 advance to the third round.  If there's an upset in the first 2 rounds like there was in 2020, then throw all predictions out the window.  We know Sayre will be the 1 seed.  Raceland will probably end up 6-4 and the 2 seed.  Pikeville will probably end up 5-5.  The issue will be how Hazard finishes its season against Clay County.  If Hazard wins, they'll be 6-4 with a 3A win to finish the season, likely resulting in them finishing above Pikeville in the RPI.  If Hazard loses to Clay County, Pikeville could finish as the 3 seed.  That being said, Pikeville has nobody to blame but themselves.  Yes, they put together an incredibly difficult schedule, but the RPI heavily rewards victories.  So, Pikeville's winning percentage is going to be abnormally low given its prediction of 5 wins.  Had they found a way to win a game vs LCA, Belfry, or Ironton, they would probably be locked in as the 2 seed in the East.  But they didn't, so their road to a potential 4-peat will be, well, on the road.  Now, I'm in no way guaranteeing a Pikeville win vs Hazard or Boyd County.  Both of those teams are more than equipped to beat this year's version of the Panthers.  But if Pikeville puts up the type of fight we saw against Ironton, then their chances of winning those last two games are higher than we may have all imagined a month ago.  Long story short, as long as Pikeville advances, they will be on the road starting in the third round, at either Sayre or Raceland. 

As far as the West goes, Campbellsville should have no problems advancing to the semis.  As the season stands today, my prediction for the other team out West to advance to the semis would be NCC.  Depending on how the Thoroughbreds finish their season, they could end up the 2 or 3 seed in the semis. 

My prediction for the semis as of today:

1. Pikeville at Campbellsville
2. Raceland at NCC

But the beauty with football, this will be decided on the field, and we all get to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I agree with your analysis except for the part that is bolded.  I can’t see any way that Hazard beats Pikeville after watching Raceland beat them senseless.  Hazard is a good middle of the road Class A team but after their performance last week there is no way I could put them in the same conversation as the top 1A teams.