[Cactus Jack]

Trying to use a fair mix of "If the season ended today" and "how I think the rest of the season will go".

Top 4:

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Iowa State


I don't see an SEC team going undefeated. Texas is the only undefeated team heading into this week, and they still have this week's neutral site gamea against Oklahoma, Georgia, @Vanderbilt, Florida, @Arkansas, Kentucky, and @Texas A&M. If they're even able to survive Georgia, I wouldn't be shocked if the Aggies spoiled their undefeated season. If nothing else, I just see too many games against quality teams for an Oklahoma, Florida, or even Kentucky not to upset them.

Ohio State probably comes into the playoff as #1. They've got road games (this week) at Oregon and later at Penn State, and get Nebraska, Purdue, and Michigan at home. I'm anything but a Buckeye fan, but I could see them taking a road loss to Oregon or Penn State and still coming out ahead of a Georgia team whose only loss is to Alabama if voters can't get the taste of Vanderbilt's upset of the Tide out.

Either way, I see the SEC champion and Big Ten champion ending up as #1 and #2. Miami has a good shot at running the table and sealing a top 3 seed, but I don't know that they are higher without knowing how the above plus conference championship games play out. I do think an undefeated Miami is higher than a two loss SEC or Big Ten champion though. Penciling in Iowa State as the Big XII champion and getting the last bye at #4-- could be a handful of teams that winds up there and earns the honor of becoming the sacrificial lamb for the #5 seed-- point being that it really doesn't matter which.

Five through Twelve:

5. Georgia 
6. Oregon
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson

9. Boise State
10. Texas A&M
11. Penn State
12. SMU



Georgia winds up being the best of the rest (if not the best). Their loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa helps with the optics. The 'Dawgs could well wind up being your #1 or #2 overall seed, I just can't rank them ahead of Texas based on what we've seen so far. Kentucky played Georgia really close, and how the Cats finish the season could have a big say in Georgia's ultimate seed.

Oregon winds up being the Big Ten's #2. A home loss to Ohio State won't totally derail them, and if they pull the upset, they can still afford a random upset, though I don't see anyone on their schedule who jumps out as a real problem-- there's no way Washington beats them in a regular season finale in Eugene to make it three times in a row, right?

Here's where things get interesting-- I'm going to skip to my #9 team, Boise State. They've played an Oregon team who I'm taking at #7 tooth-and-nail and this is the first year of the playoff, so the networks might not mind this scenario: #9 Boise State, the darling underdog that we've already seen kill giants, goes into the house of the lowest ranked team getting a home game in round one for a prime-time game.

In the same line of thought as above, I can't see a world where the SEC and Big Ten get as many teams as they might deserve (at least given the chaos that we've already seen so far). Clemson took an absolute beatdown from Georgia, but the ACC and Big XII will have a total of at least three teams, more likely four. I'll give the Tigers the #8, which really isn't much of a prize considering that they'd be getting a motivated (and perhaps underrated) Boise State.

I'm no fan of the Vols, but Tennessee has a road loss to Arkansas and can probably stand to lose one more and still get in. [U]I think Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt is a sign of worse things to come for the Tide, and one of the largest assumptions that I'm making here is that there season ends up going off the rails[/B]. Tennessee has Alabama and Georgia remaining, but it's still a much more manageable schedule with Kentucky, Vanderbilt, UTEP, and Mississippi State otherwise, and they probably actually benefit from sitting out the SEC Championship game instead of going and taking an L. In contrast, Alabama has South Carolina, @Tennessee, Missouri, and @LSU in a five week period before ending with Mercer, @Oklahoma, and Auburn. With games in Knoxville, Death Valley, and Norman as well as trap or rivalry games everywhere else, I just see the Tide taking at least one more bad loss. The eye test will go a long way in determining whether they get in over some of the other candidates.

To avoid rematches and/or games where teams from the same conference play in round one, I'll give the remaining seeds to Texas A&M and Penn State, two teams who have very manageable remaining schedules. The Aggies early loss to Notre Dame stings, but with Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, New Mexico State, Auburn, and Texas remaining, they have a fairly soft landing. Upset Texas or win out and look good against the Horns, and they could have a better resume than Alabama.

Will go against the grain and give the final spot to SMU, though this could easily end up being the Big XII's number two (such as BYU).

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Edit: Texas A&M and Penn State should be switched above.

That does the following:

Round 1-
Guarantees no conference vs. conference match-ups.

Guarantees no rematches of in-season games.


Round 1/2 -

Guarantees that at least 1 school that is from neither the SEC or Big Ten wins a first round game and goes on to the next round as the lower seed.