[Old School Hound]

Regions:
South (Dallas), East (Boston), Midwest (Detroit), West (Los Angeles)


Locks:

1 Seeds:
1- Houston
2 - UConn
3 - Purdue
4 - ??? (North Carolina)

Houston, UConn, and Purdue are going to be #1 seeds regardless of what happens going forward. How well they play in their conference final will determine their order and geographic regions.

It makes most sense that Houston goes to the South (Dallas), UConn goes to the East (Boston), and Purdue goes to the Midwest (Detroit). That would lead the final #1 seed in the West (Los Angeles).

With Arizona, Creighton, AND Tennessee going down, North Carolina has the inside track on the final #1. I don't know that there's a scenario where any of the three losers jump from a #2 to #1. Maybe convincing wins by Iowa State against #1 Houston or Marquette against #2 UConn get them in the discussion, but those would be pretty big jumps and I think it's the Heels' so long as they don't take an ugly loss to NC State.


2 Seeds:
1 - Arizona
2 - Tennessee
3 - Marquette
4 - Iowa State

I'm fairly confident that these are the teams you'll see on this line, the only question is their ranking and the regions they'll be assigned to.  If North Carolina were to drop to a #2, then one of the above teams would move onto the #1 line, but it seems that EVERYONE is backing into high seeds now. The Cyclones and Marquette's paths are covered above.


3, 4 and 5 Seeds:
1 - Duke
2 - Creighton
3 - Auburn
4 - Illinois
5 - Kentucky
6 - Baylor
7 - Kansas
8 - San Diego St.
9 - Alabama
10 - Florida
11 - St. Mary's
12 - BYU
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Texas Tech
15 - Washington St.
16 - Utah St.


Teams left playing are obviously the biggest variables.

Duke is locked into a mid-3 at worst. Creighton lost yesterday and began today projected as a 3. Like Duke, today's chaos probably did nothing to hurt them after their loss to Providence yesterday closed the door on a two.


Auburn has a lot to gain, but is most likely a #3. Kentucky is probably a #4 seed but the logistics of geography and keeping the SEC away from each other will factor in and maybe pushing them to a low-3 or high-5. Florida began today as a #7, but their blowout of Alabama will boost them, and I could see them going as far as a high-4 if they can win the conference. South Carolina will be rooting for Auburn, and today's blowout probably locked them in at as a #6, but no better than a #5. 


Illinois can help themselves out, especially if they beat Purdue in the Big Ten championship; still, I don't think they'll get to the 2-line because of some bad losses that could sink them to a low-3 or mid-4 with an ugly loss to Nebraska or Indiana in their semi. Wisconsin began a #6, but could moves up to the high-5 line with a win against Purdue and in the Big 10 championship.


Kansas has two blowout losses that are fresh on everyone's mind, but they were short-handed in those, so we'll see how they're graded. I don't see them dropping past a low-5. They're a traditional power who'll bring fans and draw ratings, and the committee can do some different things with them and use the injury angle to justify the decision.


BYU and San Diego State intrigue me. They started the day as solid #5 seeds, and San Diego State just knocked off a ranked Utah State team who'd started the day on the #7 line and should be favored in their final.

Washington State began the day on the #5 line, but may be in play for a low-4 if they're able to win their semi and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 final. They currently trail Colorado, and I doubt their 5 gets any better if this result holds.

St. Mary's began today as a 6. We probably won't have a great idea where they end up until at least mid-day tomorrow, as they're going to be rooting against teams like Florida, Washington State, and San Diego State.


I'd group all of the teams mentioned in the three paragraphs above together when evaluating them, as most are in the far West, which will likely come into play for seeding/geographic preferences and podsites.

No way will Florida be a 4, imo.  5 is their ceiling. Championship game(if they make it) won't factor.