[Cactus Jack]

I don't think that Cal gets fired regardless, but I see a continuum:

- Upset by a 12-14 seed in the round of 64 and people will lose their ever-loving minds; If so, few Calipari defenders remain and fans become are still so vocal at the beginning of next season that the eventual separation becomes inevitable and everyone (fans, administration, and Cal) is utterly miserable for the one to two years that it takes to get there as things get uglier along the way;

- Lose in the round of 32 and fewer lose their minds, but everyone complains; save Reed Sheppard staying and stumping for fans to support Cal and/or next year's team starting strong and eventually getting to a Final Four or better, then it's going to be tough for Cal to ever regain most fan's trust and support, and even then it might be temporary. This is still "point of no return" territory for me;


- Upset in the Sweet 16 and it's going to be bad; people will still support the program, but lots of Cal defenders are going to be worn out and start taking a hard look at whether everyone they've had "the post-2015 Cal argument" with was right all along. There's a much more muted public tone from Calipari supporters and the detractor's voices are amplified going further. This may be the best scenario for everyone if we're looking at an immediate exit strategy. This is the perfect spot for an administration looking for a way out, as fans would be ambivalent (at best) about seeing him go, yet he'd still have enough steam to convince a Michigan-type to open up the checkbook;

- Upset in the Elite Eight and we're not far from the previous scenario-- I don't like the word "upset" and think it leaves a worse taste in fan's mouths though. If Kentucky goes in as a #3 or #4, that'd mean the highest seed that they could be upset by in this round would be a 7 or 8. This is the first point on the continuum where the end result could be incompatible with how far the team actually advanced;


- Lose to a higher seed in the Sweet 16 and it won't be pretty, but it won't be as ugly as an upset; this is probably the mid-point, and there'd be some variation depending on how close the game was and how far the team who beat us advanced (for instance, a last second heart-breaker to #1 overall seed and eventual champion Houston would be much different than going in as a 5 and taking a sixteen point loss to 4th seeded Illinois);

- Lose to a higher seed in the Elite Eight and we're essentially in the same boat as the last scenario, but the waters aren't quite as choppy. If we're a #4 or #5 seed, we'd be unable to meet a #1 here, so it'd have to be a #2 or #3; if we go in as a #3, then a losing to a #1 is still in play;


-Upset in the Final Four and people are heartbroken; some are upset, but most in the group were already there prior to this loss; others see moderate success and see a Final Four as an achievement in and of itself. Here, few fan's opinion of Cal changes and everyone uses the result to further dig into their position. I also don't know that a coach has been fired (without cause) in the off-season immediately following a Final Four run and think that this would buy Cal at least two more years;

-Lose to a higher seed in the Final Four and fewer are upset, plus there may be some Cal skeptics or apologists who see this as enough of a reason to soften their stance and jump to the other team, or at least reserve judgment for awhile;

-Upset in the National Championship: Pretty much the same scenario as above, just with the wrinkle of being "upset". Cal haters would be unhappy at being upset by someone of an equal or lower seed (especially if we go in as a #4), but others would discount them and the season would be seen as an overall success once the sting wore off;


-Win a National Championship: Keep dreaming.