[Old School Hound]

As someone who likes to delve into numbers and analytics, let's dive,  shall we?

ALABAMA:

Record:  19-7 ( 11-2, SEC , 8-5 NonC)

AdjEM :   + 26.30 (#6)

AdjOE :  127.4 (#1)

AdjDE:  101.1 (#71)

AdjT  :  72.4  (#14)

LUCK: -0.018 ( # 234)

SOSAdjEM :  +11.62(#5)

NonConSOSAdjEM : +8.50 (#18)



KENTUCKY:  18-8 (8-5 SEC, 10-3 NonC)


AdjEM :   + 19.25 (#23)

AdjOE :  120.5 (#9)

AdjDE:  101.3 (#77)

AdjT  :  71.9 (#18)

LUCK: -0.057 ( # 310)

SOSAdjEM :  +7.18(#58)

NonConSOSAdjEM : -0.055 (#189)




What do the numbers tell us?

1. Both teams can score the basketball. Alabama is the most efficient team in the nation on offense. UK is not too shabby at #9.

2. Both teams struggle to get stops on defense. Bama is slightly better on D , but only six spots higher than UK, which is at #77.

3. Both teams like to push the tempo. Bama averages 1.81 possessions per minute and UK is at 1.80 ppm. Both of these are top 20 tempo teams. Compared to Houston or UConn, both Bama and UK get eight or nine more possessions per game. More possessions mean a higher scoring game.

4. Both teams are ranked very low in the luck category, which means that both teams' records could very easily be much better with a few lucky bounces. These teams have a combined 15 losses but they are much better than what those records indicate.

5. Strength of Schedule--- big advantage to Bama, especially in the non-conference. The Crimson Tide has played the tougher schedule. 

Their five NonConf. losses were to Arizona(#4), Purdue(#2), Clemson(#24), Ohio State(#68), Creighton(#11). Average KenPom of NonConf opponents in losses=  21.8  .  Kentucky lost to  Kansas(#17), Gonzaga(#19), and UNCW(#102). Average KenPom of NonConf Opponents in losses =  46.0 .

Alabama's eight  NonConf wins were against teams with an average KenPom of 139.1 .  UK's ten NonConf wins came against teams with an average KenPom of 199.4  


CONCLUSIONS:  Both of these teams like to play at a very fast tempo and score quickly. Neither team does defense very well. Look for a score in the 80's or 90's, at least. Both teams could easily have 22 or 23 wins with some better luck in their close losses.  Bama has played a significantly tougher schedule than have the Cats. Look for a tight, high-scoring affair , with the team making some clutch plays or getting key stops down the stretch coming out on top.

On paper, it looks like a bit of an advantage for the Crimson Tide. But, as we all know, games are not played on paper. They are played on TV sets. 

For all the blue-haired , blue  blooded elites occupying the lower area seats today, put down away your crochet needles, crossword puzzles, and Words with Friends app on your $1500 smartphone, and make some damn noise.

GO CATS!!!  ROLL THE TIDE!!!