[Cactus Jack]

This one is concerning. Exposed basically every flaw we have. And another thing that I’ve been worrying about, now that we have another player on the roster (Big Z) that’s gonna take minutes, and hopefully at some point Theiro back, isn’t there eventually gonna be some discontent creep in over playing time? All the Kumbaya of how well everyone gets along is great, but when playing time starts to decline, let’s see then.

Definitely have some major flaws. I don't think that this is a national championship caliber team. Too far to go defensively and too late in the game to figure it out. Even in a best-case scenario, the clock is ticking on just having everyone available and getting game reps together.

If you want to be optimistic, the 1998 team was somewhat of an unlikely champion, but they'd only lost four games all year-- by 15 to #1 Arizona in Maui, by 3 to Louisville, by 12 to Florida, and by 11 to Ole Miss-- the last three all in Rupp. UConn lost 8 games last season and won it all, and UK beat eventual champion Kansas by 18 in January 2022, but none of those teams had a terrible home loss to UNC-Wilmington or a 17-point road loss to a South Carolina. The Gamecocks weren't terrible, but Alabama beat them 74-47.

In the end, I think that this team is put out by an experienced, physical team that values possessions, plays aggressive defense, and gets a little hotter than normal to make enough shots against our not-so-great defense. Notice I didn't say "has a pro talent", "has a guy who does 'x' really well", or "can put us in 'x' situation". Not a good thought for a team who was already looking like they'd be on the 3 seed line going into the day. If they end up as a 3, 4, or 5, that's a pretty tough road given the types of teams they'd be facing out of the gate. I'd honestly rather be a 7 or 10 in a region close to home and draw a "bubble" team limping in from a Power 5 than the high 4 playing an experienced conference champion trying to be the next Cinderella. At least then, you get the chance at the 2 early and take their path if you beat them.


I don't think the amount of talent is the problem-- using the bench as a motivation to play defense and being able to ride the hot hand or weather foul trouble doesn't hurt. I just wonder if there's going to be a point where the right line-up clicks though.

Edwards still has a lot of things to figure out if he's going to be half the player he was expected to be. I was higher on him than any of the other incoming freshmen. You hope that he can put it together, and he will improve, but I don't know that he meshes well in a rotation where Reeves and Mitchell are also both playing lots of minutes (and you don't sit either of them for him).

Wagner is going to have some games where he looks great and other where he really struggles. Doesn't seem to be a ton of in-between with him. You see what Cal is going for playing him with Reeves and Dillingham/Sheppard together, but no combination of those four are going to set the world on fire defensively. Yes, Sheppard will get steals and make smart plays, but there's a difference in having great anticipation and being a great help-defender and being someone that you can stick on the other team's best player knowing that they'll work themselves to death to get within 70% of their average.

I hope I'm wrong, but Bradshaw doesn't look like he's it. Ivisic probably eats into his minutes as the year goes and we get a pu-pu platter of those two with stretches of Onyenso the rest of the way. Mitchell is playing a ton of minutes and is honestly out of position defensively, especially depending on the line-up. Thiero needs to get back and stay healthy if he's going to be a factor.

There are going to be plenty more games like this one, and seeding is going to be paramount unless you are banking on upsets.