[Cactus Jack]

The NFL is such a week-to-week league anymore. Just a little over a month ago the 49ers were in the midst of a three-game losing streak, including getting thrashed at home by the Bengals. Now they look like the best team in football. With the expansion of the season to 17-games, it has almost turned into who can be the healthiest at the right time. Look how many backup qb’s are starting right now. And I would bet the house we go to 18 regular season games in the not too distant future. I worry that at some point, the owners greed may kill our favorite sport.

Anyway, back to the original topic, I can’t get a read on the AFC, no one looks like anywhere close to a lock. Oh, for Joe Burrow to be healthy! The Bengals would have a real shot at making another Super Bowl. I can’t trust Lamar, Miami hasn’t beaten any good teams, Jacksonville just doesn’t seem like a team that can win it, and the Chiefs obviously are a shadow of themselves offensively. I could see a wild card team with a stout defense (hello Cleveland! But Joe Flacco?!?) win the conference.
On the NFC side, the Niners, Cowboys and Eagles, despite their little swoon, look better than any AFC team. Their wild card teams don’t look that threatening however, so I’ll take the Niners there.

Spot on with a week-to-week league that is about who is healthiest.

Baltimore and Miami will probably be playing for the AFC's #1 seed in Week 17.

To me, the 49ers are the best team in the league, but they have a lot of injury-prone guys who play huge roles and will be relying on a QB that will probably remind everyone that regular season and playoff football are two different things. Philly has been on a huge slide, but their remaining schedule is pretty soft. San Francisco still has a game with the Ravens and the Rams, so it isn't implausible to see them end up with the same record. Dallas' still has Miami and Detroit in back-to-back games before ending with Washington.

The Rams and Bills are surging right now; I don't see anyone wanting to draw them as the 6 or 7, which is where both essentially have to be (there's a 15% chance that the Bills could end up at #4, but there'd have to be some chaos).

Of the teams with the best records, Detroit is my dark horse. I could see them playing Dallas really well because they're built to play indoors.

Like you, I don't see the Jaguars, Browns, (or Texans) striking fear into anyone given the other possibilities. I can see Jacksonville or Cleveland winning one or two games because there are some things that they can do well, but they aren't very complete teams. I guess I could see the Packers or Buccaneers getting hot and beating someone, but I don't see them, the Saints, or the Vikings really doing enough to string together a few wins for the same reason.