[Cactus Jack]

I follow a few teams, with one of those being the Texans. They've been an absolute dumpster fire for reasons that have been discussed in great detail (Hopkins trade, Watson fiasco, etc.). The rebuild is going to take more than one year, as there's a reason that they currently share Vegas' lowest predicted win total for next season even after the Draft. The biggest factor in their long term outlook is ownership and management. I don't see their current situation being one that's going to attract free agents, so if they're going to acquire game-changing talent, it's likely going to be through the Draft.

I think CJ Stroud was the right pick at #2 if they were going to go with a quarterback, but I'm not in love with him. The history of #2 QB drafted in years where signal-callers have went back-to-back to open the draft isn't encouraging either.

I absolutely love Will Anderson being picked at #3, but they had to give up a lot of their abundant draft capital to get the only player to start at linebacker as a true freshman for Saban at Alabama. With Anderson and Stingley, you have two young game changers at crucial positions.

Houston traded away their 2024 First and Third Round picks to move to #3, so sitting Stroud behind Davis Mills and tanking doesn't really do anything to benefit them in next year's draft order.

In the NFL, Stroud's pockets won't nearly as clean and his receivers won't possess superior talent. I don't see him as one of the Top 10 QBs in the league for some time, and even at that point, I'd think he'd have toward the end of that list; I'm most worried, however, about the fact that he wasn't the sure-fire #1 pick over a 5'10 QB whose measureables aren't the prototype of what organizations look to draft. Even though he's a Buckeye, I hope that history shows my concerns with his ability to translate to the NFL were misplaced, or that a franchise whose recent history is filled with terrible decisions is able to reverse course and build their team to the point that their skill positions mask his deficiencies.

The depth of the 2024 QB Draft class will likely have a huge say in whether it would have been better to take Will Anderson at #2, a receiver such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba or defensive player at #12, and then go through another year of tanking with Davis Mills at QB in hopes of getting the best QB in 2024 to go along with the first rounder that they'd acquired from the Browns. At the same time, not having an early first round pick next season could give them more time to develop Stroud, as he won't have to look over his shoulder and no one will be calling for them to draft his replacement in 2024 unless the wheels fall off as Cleveland plays a tough divisional schedule.

I'm a bigger fan of the Xavier Hutchinson (WR, Iowa St.) pick and lower on the Tank Dell (WR, Houston) pick than analysts seem to be. I was a fan of Henry To'o To'o (LB, Alabama) in college and generally agree with the consensus on Dylan Horton (DE, TCU).

In all, I like the fact that they took a big swing and are at least trying to form an identity. The draft was balanced between offensive and defensive players, which is a sound strategy for a team with so many holes. I'll give them an B+ and hope that the fact that I don't have to sit through another year of out-right tanking is more comforting than thinking that Houston made a gamble and mortgaged the future with little to no return.


Best Case Scenario:
Stroud takes the starting job late in the season and shows promise and develops a rapport with John Metchie, who has made a full recovery from his bout with leukemia and looks like a high-end #2 receiver for any franchise. The offensive line is solid and opens holes for Pierce while keeping Stroud upright and healthy and the team isn't repeatedly blown out so often that morale is damaged. The Colts suffer from another abysmal season and the Titans can't recapture their previous magic, leaving the Texans as the strongest competitor to Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville. The wheels fall off as Cleveland loses handfuls of games in a tough division and the Texans go into the 2024 Draft with a Top 7 pick that lets them take a #1 target for Stroud or another stud to add to a nasty and improving defense. The team's ownership and management situation resolves and the city becomes a viable destination for free agents whose signatures could push the team over the top as Stroud and Anderson play out the ends of their cap-friendly contracts.


Worst Case Scenario:
Stroud doesn't develop, whether from being pushed too early, injured, or just not possessing the talent of a starting NFL QB. The fans suffer through an abysmal season with the sting of having the top draft pick go to another team. Stingley is again bitten by the injury bug. Management panics and makes more terrible moves (at the behest of the owners). The rift between the fans and ownership increases. Ownership sees firing another staff as a way of saving face and does so, meaning that the cycle begins again and the resentment only grows.