[Big Daddy Bull]

Looks like we've both made it through district with no losses. Actually kind of unusual for that to happen, at least for me.

Haven't been any huge upsets yet either-- the biggest might be Beechwood over Holy Cross in the 9th. University Heights going down was a bit unexpected, but they’d only beaten Christian County by 2 earlier. Didn't expect North Hardin to go down but I didn't really consider picking them and doubt others did either.


Boyd County and Ashland are still the two best teams in the 16th. Russell losing their district to a Lewis County team that came into the postseason with nine wins by 16 points shows that.  

Martin County eked out two games against teams with losing records that make me feel better about Pikeville in the 15th. I've always thought Rodney Rowe was an underrated coach, and Shelby Valley might be the team I'd pick if you took the Panthers out of the field. I can't tell if Pike Central is a sleeper or paper tiger, but thinking it's probably the latter.

Hazard took care of business in the 14th. I think that Al Holland guy knows what it takes to win that one, as he's got one in four different decades.

North Laurel still looks like the best in the 13th and it will take someone’s A-game on their off night to take them out. Maybe they have a game where Harlan County, Harlan, South Laurel, or Corbin plays well and keeps it closer than the Jags would like for awhile, but it's just as likely that they roll through the region. I see their biggest test being against a Harlan County team that tries to keep it low-scoring, but gradually falling behind before North hits a big run that shuts the door on any doubt about the outcome.

Lincoln County survived a scare on their home floor from Danville in the 12th. The Ads are kind of unique from most of the rest of the 12th (one of the few competitive city/independent schools and usually have better years when multi-sport athletes make up their core), so maybe it isn't something too look into too much. Nothing would surprise me in this region, and West Jessamine could be a nice sneaky pick that makes someone who picked against Lincoln and Pulaski look really smart.

The 11th was chalk despite Western Hills' best efforts. Would consider Frederick Douglass, Lexington Catholic, Madison Central, or Great Crossing going down in the first round as an upset. I have a nagging feeling that Madison Central is a good team with inconsistent results; I don’t think they win it, but I think that they spoil someone’s plans. I still like Douglass to pull the slight upset, but would concede that Lexington Catholic is the favorite. 

Nothing happened to change the collision course that George Rogers Clark and Mason County are on in the 10th. The region is at the Fieldhouse and all the pressure will be on the defending champions, so I'll stay with the Royals.

Biggest upset (above) was in the 9th. I do think that it is a region with some interesting teams that makes it a minefield. I could see a Lloyd or Newport pulling an upset but losing to a Conner or Highlands just as easily. I'd probably still take Covington Catholic in a redraft, but I don't think that they're the lock that others seem to. Outside of not having to play (and potentially lose to) Holy Cross in the district final, Beechwood's upset might have hurt the Colonels more than it helped by taking a contender out of the other side of the regional bracket and giving a Lloyd or Newport (who isn't used to going to the region every year) a chance to get in a warm-up against a weaker opponent that allows them to survive a game that they could have lost and then get hot. 

No surprises in the 8th, but Woodford County could become one.

The 7th was chalk. Still Ballard, Male, and Trinity as the favorites and a draw that's going to have a big say in who comes out and how beat up they are once they've made it.

The Western/DeSales matchup put one of the contenders out early in the 6th. I'd imagine that all of the district winners are hoping to avoid DeSales in the first round. I watched a bit of the Evangel Christian district final out of curiosity for what they had-- they didn't look bad-- have some length and didn't look as though they mind getting up and down the floor. Their big has to be one of the best players in Louisville and they have some talent around him that looked like they can score the ball. I still like the Eagles, but they aren't a lock. The only non-contender in the regional tournament (Moore) will be in the opposite bracket. PRP, Butler, DeSales, Fairdale and Jeffersontown are all capable. 

Larue County and Taylor County's box scores weren't very impressive. Wouldn't call them a lock by any means, but this all makes me feel better about Elizabethtown in the 5th.

Warren Central took care of business in the 4th. Bowling Green is capable and I’d be shocked if it weren’t those two in the final, but give me the Dragons. They look dialed in and are my pick to leave Rupp winners. 

Owensboro Catholic didn't take care of business in the 3rd. They lost by 14 to an Owensboro team that they'd beaten by 20 exactly two weeks ago. Ohio County would have to go through both and they just lost to a Muhlenburg County team that'd won six games going into the postseason.

Lyon County’s hold on the 2nd gets a little stronger with the UHA team who eliminated them in the All A going out. I could see a Christian County or one of the larger schools giving them fits from a stylistic standpoint. Playing in a game at an extreme tempo can bring mental fatigue, and there'll be a lot of pressure on them. I could see them being extremely vulnerable if they get off to a slow start against a team who can pressure them and speed up the game (which would also take the ball out of Perry’s hands more and tire him as he works back to it). They'll probably pull it off, but I'm guessing that the ideal draw for them is one that avoids Christian County and Hopkinsville and runs through a smaller school like Webster County once they get to a round where meeting one of the better teams is inevitable. It may not be this year, but something tells me that the Lyons don't three-peat. 

If I could change one of my picks, it'd probably be Tilghman in the 1st; it looks like McCracken just has their number, but if they meet again, that's the only game that will really matter. Caught some of the Marshall County/Calloway County game-- from what I've seen so far, Tilghman and Murray probably match up well with one another, as do Marshall County and McCracken County.

Man that's long lol, but good info. I can only speak for the 11th- I think its Lex Cath to lose. Douglas just rely on athleticism don't really run any sets or anything tough to do against really good well coached teams. Great Crossing is long, but most of there decent bench players have left the team, not much depth or killer instinct. Lex Cath and Madison Central have the best and most experienced Coaches in the region so I wouldn't be surprised if Madison Central came out either. Best time of the year if you love basketball.