[Grannyshot]

Before folks go dismissing the CalPreps computer system, let me give the perspective from a pure mathematical and statistical point of view.

If you just blindly picked games throughout the season, picking the team with the better record, and in cases of equal records, picking the home team, you are going to have a percentage of correct picks of about  69.8% . 

In 2022, the CP computer system had a correct percentage in all games nationwide of 83.2% ( 42,089-8,497).  In Kentucky, it did even better with a correct percentage of  85% .  Without going into a lot of advanced statistics, confidence intervals, and statistical significance, let me just leave it at this---  anything in the 75-80% range would be considered quite good, so 85% is some damn good work by the CALPREP computer, which I nickname JTG("Jimmy the Geek"). 

Although six games is a small sample size, based on its overall work this season, "Jimmy the Geek"  should predict five of the six state final games correctly. The expected value of number of correct predictions would be 4.9  if we go by the  83.2% nationwide correct percentage for 2022  ;  5.1 if we go by the  Kentucky correct percentage for 2022.  So,  5 correct out of six looks favorable.

Based on its work predicting games in Kentucky this season , there is a 37.7% chance that it correctly predicts all six of these games and a 39.9% chance that it correctly predicts exactly five of the games correctly. Thus,  there is a 77.6% chance that the computer gets FIVE OR MORE correct !!!! NOTE: This is assuming the computer equals it's 85% correct projections in Kentucky games up to this point in the season.  However, that probability will be skewed high  because in the regular season you are going have more games that are easier to predict than these games are.  A better measure will be to use historical data , based on the percentage of teams that actually won games , given a predicted margin of victory by the computer.

When I get the time, I will compute the probability that five or more of these games will be predicted correctly based on historical data using the percentages given in the initial post. That will give us a more accurate probability than the overstated probability above.

So you are telling me there is chance!