[EKUAlum05]

I will break down by Small Schools only (Bottom Half of Classes) soon.

Notes so far:
1. There was a clear delineation that Belfry and JC were the class of EKY since 2003, with Bell County being step for step while Dudley Hilton was the Head Coach. Bell took a slip once he left and if not for that time they would be right with the Top 2.

2. Ashland and Corbin were the next tier and they have done it with consistency. Neither has a Title to show for, but neither have had truly down stretches. They may have had 2 or 3 weaker seasons, but neither were ever non-competitive and both handled coaching change well.

3. Harlan County only has been around for 12 years, but their success has been surprising. Harlan County also illustrates the Larkey effect. Larkey's peak was just before these numbers at Rockcastle, so what we see is the taper off from his peak in his twilight at Rockcastle and then Harlan County. From 2003-2006 Rockcastle was as good as anyone in EKY including a #1 finish in 2005. Larkey carried that momentum for four years at Harlan County but then his slide was drastic and at Perry Central it only continued.

Harlan County also illustrates the role a bumper feeder crop can play. They have rebounded to respectability thanks to a current class of players how had success at the Middle School level.

4. Russell is kind of on their own island. The Red Devils are a good example of the tapering downward and upward that comes with replacing a legend and subsequently transition an entire systematic Offensive philosophy. The Devils were outstanding in the early 2000's with four straight Semi-Finals. Then you see the tail end of McGlone's run and the start of Maynard's era as they became a much less impactful force for a six year stretch from 08-13.

Now that Maynard has settled in you have seen Russell kind of ebb and flow with Senior experience. This pattern matches Maynard's time at Raceland as well! The Devils have had some solid Top 10 teams but have yet to find the success from McGlone's peak.

5. The next tier of teams is composed of the 1A powerhouses and some larger school teams who have yet to reach greatness.

First the small schools:
Anytime you are a 1A school it is going to be a tough draw in the Calpreps system. Your SOS will always be heavily dependent on your non-district games and you can't afford to take losses to other 1A teams. Pikeville and Hazard each had some Championship runs but also had some years where those variables caused their number to be negatively effected.

Pikeville's numbers trend is also the perfect example of a program stabilizing and evolving. MacNamee took over in 2010 on the tail end of their weakest three year stretch. It took MacNamee some time to get the ship righted, as his first four years were nothing special in the date. After those four years to get his first cycle of talent up and into the High School, you then see an immediate trajectory adjustment. Pikeville then takes a slight two year lull (common of most small schools) as some veteran talent leaves and the next wave enters then you see another surge to present day.

Hazard is a different story. They emerged, peaked, then stabilized under Dixon and followed this same "ebb and flow" pattern for small schools. It is clear Dixon raised the bard where both their highest highs and lowest lows were higher than previous, but you can see Hazard even out at the twilight factored in by Pikeville's emergence. From a statistical viewpoint, Dixon's departure makes sense for both parties. Hazard now must find the right guy or expect a negative trend back to where they were Pre-Dixon.

Raceland lost Maynard and suffered a transition, but now have stabilized. What is curious about Raceland is they are extremely consistent and are not seeing as much ebb and flow in variance. This should be both a optimistic and potentially worrisome thing for Rams fans. It's clear the program has built itself to be a consistent winner, but where d you go from here? Does Raceland push forward and become an elite school or will they regress?