[Hound05]

Let’s compare district opponents
Rock vs
Estill 18-13 (rain and lightning delay)
Jackson 56-22(JV allowed 14)
McCreary Central 49-14(JV allowed 7)
Garrard county 42-6
Estill county 50-14
215 points/ 43
69 points/ 14
43-14 average score + 29 (21 of 69 was on JV so really allowed 10 for + 33)

Bell vs
McCreary Central 56-6
Garrard County 39-0
Jackson County 45-0
Estill County 55-12
Garrard County 44-0
239 points/ 48
18 points/ 4
48-4 average score + 44

What this says is with the given common opponents Rock and Bell have clearly dominated the district and are the clear cut 1 and 2 and Rock can play with Bell if they come out and play like they are capable of. Regardless all this talk will be settled tomorrow night. Less than 24 hours until the war begins! This will be a war!

At first glance on paper it would appear Rock and bell are some what even, given the like opponents. But that’s the problem IMO. I don’t like comparing like opponents to predict an outcome of the two teams being compared. I’ve went into detail about it before, but to me it just doesn’t paint a true picture or an accurate/reliable one at that. There are way to many variables at hand to use that type of comparison. Very rarely does it ever it prove accurate but people still try to use it. I do think you can use it to judge overall how talented a team might be, but using it to determine if a team can win or play with another is just to much with to many outside factors not being considered. For instance, say Jackson county’s defense is suited to stop the run very well. If one team is a running team or majority running team, the score would be significantly lower if they played another team you’re trying to compare that’s say a heavy passing team. Weather could also play a huge factor in games against like opponents. Matchups are huge in HS football, if you look at say, Corbin. They beat Whitley county, who beat SW Pulaski On the road. But they lost to Pulaski at home by 3. Pulaski also lost to SW Pulaski twice. SW Pulaski got murdered by Wayne county. Corbin barely lost to Wayne. And barley lost to Pulaski. If you were comparing like opponents in all of that mess, you’d be mislead into believing an outcome that would show SW Pulaski shouldn’t even be playing this week, and also that Corbin should have beaten Pulaski co pretty bad. But instead, it shows that not only is comparing like opponents not accurate, it proves matchups are much more key.

I’m not a fan of Hilton, so I’m rooting for rock, but even with a more potent offense, logic would still show this matchup favors bell heavily. As bell was still able to put points up on rock in this Matchup, regardless of rocks offense. To me it their offense would have to be dramatically improved to be in this game. Good luck to both teams, but Bell will roll in this one because of the ability to score on rocks defense.