[RealJokersWild24]

Yes. And within the next 15 to 20 years. Who that will end up being and when it ends up happening is anyone's guess, but yes, I think so (and in 25 years tops).


Awhile back, I'd posted how most State winners had great programs, not just good talent, as it seems that anyone who has won State over the past 20 years (save Dunbar and Jeffersontown, both schools in more metro areas and loaded regions) have made at least a couple other trips to Rupp during that same class' window, and have won a game or two in those trips as well. That was even more true for mountain teams who'd had success-- those teams seemed to have decade-long spans where they'd dominated regional play.

If I had to pick the next "small" or "Mountain" program primed to dominate regional play for awhile and potentially be competitive enough to contend for State, I'd think that Pikeville would be as good of a pick as you could make. Justice is a young coach and has taken them two years in a row, and this year, was able to win a game against a heavily favored John Hardin team. I'd imagine that, with Paintsville's dynasty seemingly over and Shelby Valley's program's best days likely in the rear-view, Pikeville has the kind of sustainability (i.e., attractive school, boosters, community support) to take over the throne (if they haven't already). Once that happens, the question then becomes, does a once in a generation player (i.e., Division One talent) come along in a year when you have enough talent around them and the cards fall right in terms of draw, other teams that are "up", etc. Obviously, there are lots of variables, but I don't think it's asinine to think that, under the current format, everything falls into place once every twenty or so years.

Past Pikeville, I don't know if you'd consider South Laurel to fit the criteria of a 'small' or 'Mountain' school, but I think that Davis has shown that he can take them and compete on a State-wide level (i.e., made it to the Final Four a few years ago and beat Covington Catholic in regular season play this year). South Laurel has a lot coming back next season and might be getting even better.

Momentum and having the crowd on your side is huge once you get to Rupp, and people love seeing a small, rural school do well.

Over the past 26 years, you've had Paintsville ('96), Shelby Valley ('10), or even a Breckenridge County ('93... currently 4A), Marion County ('95... currently 4A), or South Laurel ('05... then a 4A and now a 5A) win it all. I would imagine that, in those years, the majority of the people who purchased tickets to the whole event were happy with that outcome.

Stretch that span to 35 or 40 years and you get Clay County ('87), Pulaski County ('86), Logan County ('84... currently a 4A). This isn't counting someone like a Hopkinsville ('85) or Elizabethtown ('00) that has a small enrollment but is in a more populous area of the State and (ahem...) might not be looked at by all as 'rural' in terms of demographics.


In short, there have only been 8 champions crowned since 2010 when Shelby Valley, who I don't think anyone would argue isn't cut from the the small, rural, "Hoosier" stereotype, won it all. If it's 2030 or 2035 (another twelve or seventeen years) and we haven't seen another champion from a similar mold, then it might be time to worry, however, historically, I think it would be hard to find a time that such has happened. Is it getting harder for smaller schools to win? Yes. I do think so, and because of lots of complicated and correlated factors coming into play (with mobility being among the most prominent). With that said, it's not impossible, and I think that it is unlikely to be statically significant enough to alter the format of the tournament anytime soon.