[Tomcat68]

I'm by no means an expert, but I'm going to try to post the significant wins and losses by each team.

Cincy record -> 19-12

Record over the last 10 games ->

Cincy wins vs. possible tourney teams (5)

Murray State
LSU
Marquette
Syracuse
West Virginia

Cincy Losses to possible tourney teams (8-10)

Memphis
UCONN
Syracuse (2)
Xavier
Georgetown
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Seton Hall

Cincy record against other teams that will or may make the tourney

between 5-8 or 5-10 (dependent on Seton Hall and Xavier)


Kentucky record -> 20-11

Record over the last 10 games -> 5-5

Kentucky wins vs. possible tourney teams (4... and counting dependent on SEC tourney results)

West Virginia
Iona
Arkansas
Tennessee

Kentucky losses to possible tourney teams (8-9 dependent on Indiana.  Will increase to 9-10 if they don't win SEC tourney)

Iowa
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Alabama
Florida (2)
Tennessee
LSU

Kentucky record against other teams that will or may make the tourney

As good as 7-8
As bad as 4-10


At this point, it looks like a big tossup to me.  Dependent on how UK plays in the SEC tourney they could take a commanding lead, or fall well behind.  UK gets the favorability of a tougher overall schedule I believe and the best single win.  But, Cincy is playing in the much tougher conference top to bottom which is where most of their losses to tourney teams has come.  Both teams have done a fairly good job of taking care of the opponents they were supposed to beat.  The two losses by UK to Vandy is the biggest difference between them being a lock and on the bubble.  Cincy's biggest problem that has put them on the bubble was an opening round loss in the conference tourney because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality.