[EKUAlum05]

Unfortunately for Floyd Central the 1st 2 years are going to be based on the numbers from SF and AC added together which puts them in the top half of 3A (AC at 232 and SF at 153= 375. Belfry was at 380 in the alignment).

For Belfry and FC to drop into the 2A consideration they would have to have 20% declines vs the current average. That's huge. You have other schools well below them in enrollment that (I speculate) have decreased, such as Sheldon Clark, Magoffin Co, and Morgan Co. There is only going to be so much room in 2A and the number they will have to hit will be lower than the last alignment to do so. I will verture to say that they are going to be still 3A at the very bottom.

Morgan and Magoffin is not quite as reliant on the coal industry. Sheldon Clark will definitely be 2A.

One thing to consider is that a 20% isn't exactly as huge as it may seem.

The enrollment numbers are based off a calculated 4 year average. Where Belfry's average currently sits is higher than their current enrollment as the decline in the economy is right now at it's peak.

Floyd Central, I don't expect, will be as heavily hit as others due to one variable. Being a new school will have its ability to draw people. You may see kids who have lived in the SF or AC Districts that had chosen to attend Pburg, Betsy Layne, etc now come to the new school instead. Consequently, you may see kids who have been in the Betsy Layne or Pburg districts make the choice to come to the new school.

I still think you see Belfry come in at the low end of the 3A enrollments with the new alignment.