[Hoot Gibson]

RealClear only has Clinton up 4 and Rasmussen has her up 2. That's within the margin, how am I doing so far Fermat?

You are flunking basic statistics and lying again. If I were grading, I would suspend you for a semester for academic fraud.

The RCP average has Clinton up by 5.8 in both a 2-way and a 4-way match-up with Trump. Even if the RCP showed Clinton up by 4, that would not be within the margin of error. If you average multiple polls taken in the same time frame, the confidence level is not the same as it is for the individual margin of error for the individual polls.

Calculating the margin of error for the average of polls precisely is not even possible because the polling methods and questions are never identical - but averaging poll results is the rough equivalent of increasing the size of the sample, which always reduces the margin of error of the individual polls. The MOE of an average of multiple polls is always much smaller than the MOE of a single poll. In other words, the average of 10 polls, each with a margin of error of 4, is not 4. That is just not how statistics work.

Trump is getting trounced in the polls. Cherry picking one or two polls that show results that make you feel warm and fuzzy does not change that fact and neither does misstating the RCP average of poll results.

RIUTG found a poll that shows that Trump is running away with the race. I am surprised that you chose to post the Rasmussen results instead of following his lead. Obviously, if Trump was in a statistical dead heat with Hillary, then she would be the candidate playing musical chairs with her campaign managers instead of Trump.

BTW, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 272 electoral votes to Trump's 154 total. With no toss-up states, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 362 electoral votes.

Real Clear Politics