[TheRealThing]

Like Trump, you do not seem to understand how the convention rules work. Trump has won 37 percent of the popular vote, which overstates his appeal when you consider the caucus and convention states that Cruz has dominated. (Most caucuses require participants to devote at least a couple of hours to cast a vote, which holds down the turnout numbers.) For most of the primaries, the conservative vote was split among several strong candidates, whose positions were more similar to Cruz's than Trump's. Trump had the liberal Democrat lane to himself and did not pick up much support as conservative candidates dropped out.

Unlike Trump, Cruz has built a real national grass roots organization that does not rely on celebrity. Even if Trump had a strong national organization equal to Cruz's, his real support among delegates, once they are no longer bound would be no more than his share of the popular vote. But the Cruz organization is far superior to Trump's because he has never really understood the political process. Cruz has dominated in states like Colorado and North Dakota, not only because of his organization, but because he has taken time to make personal requests for their votes. Trump was a no show in North Dakota and he is a no show in Colorado today. Most likely, he will get shutout in Colorado and he won a single delegate in North Dakota.

Many of Trump's delegates will vote for Cruz if Trump does not win on the first ballot. Most of the unbound delegates who will vote on the first ballot will vote for Cruz.

Because Cruz is building so much support among delegates, he will be well represented on the rules committee. The GOPe establishment would prefer somebody besides Trump or Cruz, but there will not be major rules changes before the second ballot of the convention unless Cruz and Trump approve them.

Thinking that Cruz is just being used by the GOPe to install somebody like Ryan as the nominee is just silly. Cruz will have a fair shot. If neither he nor Trump get the support of 1,237 delegates after several ballots, then somebody else will get a shot. Even if the GOPe could kick both Trump and Cruz aside, it would be a stupid move politically. If they are going to lose in a landslide, then the establishment would be better served by a scapegoat as the nominee.

I think the nomination is Cruz's to lose if there is a second ballot at the convention. There is no way that somebody as unpopular among the delegates that will be attending the convention will win once the delegates are released to vote for their personal preference.

The only thing that worries me about the convention is that Trump will bribe unbound delegates with free helicopter rides or visits to one of his resorts or strip clubs. There is little or no federal regulation over lobbying for delegate support, and money has always been Trump's political tool of choice.

If Trump fails to win on the first ballot, I think there is a good chance he will claim the fix is in and go home before the second vote is taken. Trump does not lose gracefully and if he loses one ballot, he will lose all of them.

Oh I think I have my ducks in a row just fine, thank you very much. Silliness however, would seem to have been your latent speciality all along. As your affinity for conspiratorial based nonsense continues to be amply demonstrated in many of your anti-Trump rants. Likewise, the continued assertion that a majority of Republicans share your views is just not correct either. The truth is most will accept either or if the voters perceive the convention is shenanigan free and orderly. And BTW, after the fiasco of the Romney candidacy, since when was there any doubt that a bent for the suicidal, or the politically stupid, or the terminally politically correct, not seem seem to characterize the machinations of the major players within the Republican hierarchy?


My positions on most of what I have posted about Trump are widely shared by many respectable analysts and though they may seem silly to you, I remain none the less confident in my own cognitive prowess. On March 31st, Karl Rove by way of testing the water, tried floating the idea of a "fresh face" alternative, to either Cruz or Trump emerging from the convention. Do you really expect anybody on here to buy into the ridiculous notion that he is in any way lacking where it comes to a working knowledge of convention rules? :please:

Trump has been lacking however, where it comes to running his campaign. If he'd been advised correctly he would certainly be in the driver's seat by now. His ignorance about the rules may prove to have been his Achilles Heel, we'll soon find out. The real question now is can his 'new hires' reel him in and manage him in a way which will yet get him the nomination. Where others hold back, Trump lays waste to goofiness, a trait many of his supporters like. In the Soaps, the characters are always dressed impeccably and manners ala Emily Post abound. None the less, their motives and the constant schemes frothing just beneath the façade, are worthy of Satan's own praises. Give me the plain spoken.