[TheRealThing]

Nor does it take into account the delegates in those states that Cruz will win and the delegates who will drop Trump like a hot potato if he fails to win the nomination on the first ballot. Your analysis also ignores the possibility that Kasich will pick up the never Trump votes and delegates in areas where Cruz does not.

At this point, I don't believe that Trump will win half of the delegates in California. In fact, Cruz has a great shot at winning most of the delegates in California because of his strong ground organization there.

The current delegate score in Colorado is:

Cruz 21, with more to come
Trump 0
Kasich 0

Cruz will be speaking today to the Colorado Republican state convention, where he has a shot at capturing another 13 of the state's delegates (another 3 are awarded to party leaders). Trump was invited to speak but declined. That was not a smart move for somebody who hopes to win Colorado in November. Showing up would have given Trump a chance to appear courageous and to show that he is not the sore loser that we saw following his losses in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Trump is a celebrity candidate who does not play well at caucuses and conventions. He is an old dog who needs to learn some new tricks if he expects to be competitive at a contested convention. For Trump, it is 1,237 delegates on the first ballot or bust.

^^Just pointing out the inescapably obvious.

I think you have chosen to ignore the real threat of a contested convention... Paul Ryan or somebody like him. If the establishment gives Cruz any support, it is meant only to deny Trump the nomination at the convention and create the chaos needed to shroud their true intentions. They, the Rove-esque puppet masters, would love to parachute in their fav in the person of Paul Ryan and in that you and they are evidently on the same page. Because Cruz might not have the oomph to win, even on an (unclear how many) number of ballots, they may feel they'd have to make up a plausible cover to look justified. I believe they think they can just run over those who support Trump, so no apologies necessary, but in Cruz's case, who even though he would have much more work to do than Trump in delegate wrangling, it seems that they think they'll need the cover.

Unlike Charlie Sykes, Erick Erickson, Rich Lowry, and the rest of the sky-is-falling #NeverTrumpsters, I chose the non-hysteria route to the Republican nomination. One guy (Trump) came out speaking the truth plainly and he is the only one to have done so since Reagan. And in so doing shaped to no small degree, the campaigns of his opponents. Of course, Trump is the only one threatening to upset the media's lucrative apple carts, so it's not hard to see why they've had so much in the way of criticism for Mr Trump. But all the character assassinating perpetrated against Trump on both sides, has been horrific. An outcome I predicted with clarity when he announced. To give honor where it is due however, Reagan was slammed mercilessly too. One of his notable predecessors JFK, was no slouch in the area of truth telling either and received his own ample share of incoming. Oh for a few of those noble politicians in our time. But there is one glaring point to all this, and though I have asked, nobody has ventured to come forth with the explanation. Where were all the clairvoyants mentioned above, and unmentioned, who are leading the present charge against Trump when Obama was rising? I don't get it. All of a sudden those who can see into the future with precise clarity woke up as the result of the strong medicine of ObamaCare, or what happened? I think they all had it wrong in Obama's case, and in in poetic irony, they're attempting to lay the criticisms applicable to the amateur hour muppets of this administration at the feet of Mr Trump, whose only vice to date, has been a strong desire to right the ship. The whole thing looks like a political reenactment of Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.

By all reports Wisconsin was an outlier, and posed a unique challenge that Trump will not see again this election season. None the less, there are 879 remaining delegates to be had on the Republican side. Cruz having amassed 520 would need to win 717 of them to reach 1237. To say that is not likely is a bit of an understatement. On the other hand Trump with 743, only needs to win 494 more to reach 1237. Taking into account the likely Trump wins in New York and California, which total 267, Trump's total without Pennsylvania or the New England area will leave him only 227 delegates short. It's just an easier path and the polls, scientific or not, show it.