[Hoot Gibson]

Fox News and his decision to duck the debate will be Trump's scapegoats if he loses Iowa tomorrow night. Last night, Trump spent his second night in Iowa since the campaign began. This morning, Trump seems to be lowering expectations by saying that he really does not need to win Iowa because he is running so far ahead in New Hampshire and the rest of the country. It sounds like his internal polls are not looking so good.

If Cruz or Rubio win Iowa, their name recognition and popularity will snowball. If Trump does not win or finish a close second, his poll numbers will begin to erode quickly. It is too late for Trump to begin managing his followers expectations after declaring himself a "Winner" thousands of times over the past few months. If Cruz wins, look for him to artfully weave the word "lost" and "Trump" into his speeches and ads immediately.