[Hoot Gibson]

One of two things are certain.
Either a lot of people polled for Trump wont actually vote and Cruz will win.
Or Trump will win. Its really that simple IMO.

Turnout is a key but the polls are not a good indicator of how caucuses work. Cruz will gain more delegates whose candidates not make the cut in the first round of voting because Cruz is a more popular #2 pick than Trump.

There are a couple of other factors that could be big.

First, snowfall could depress turnout, which would work against Trump.

Second, Gov. Branstad is a big supporter of the ethanol use mandate and he plans to have members of his campaign helping Trump Monday night.

Cruz is the only candidate who opposes subsidies for ethanol and it may cost him the state. I prefer driving older low mileage used cars and burning more ethanol in such cars will cause engine problems. There is no logical reason to force us to pay more for fuel, food, and almost every manufactured product with increased use of ethanol. It is just one reason that I am vehemently opposed to Donald Trump. He is the only candidate who advocates increasing ethanol blending with gasoline.

Iowa polls often miss the results of the caucuses badly.