[Hoot Gibson]

I seriously doubt the thing between Trump and Megyn has the first thing to do with fear. I'd say it's more like hate, and I am still quite comfortable in my analysis of that situation. John Bolton was the first one I heard make the suggestion that Trump supporters will rally behind him even more over the Megyn Kelly deal. Who knows?

I actually think Cruz will win the point with regard to Trump declining to a debate between them. But, if I was Trump I wouldn't because every other candidate will then make the same charge and why would he risk ceding a nearly insurmountable lead with a world class debater? He by all accounts, has won the debate phase of the campaign to date, why risk flushing what he has worked so hard to achieve in the establishment arena, in some sort of unsanctioned grudge match?

Cruz and Trump have been virtually deadlocked in the most recent Iowa polls. That is why Cruz's challenge will get more attention. Trump is not leading in Iowa and he will be weakened by dodging the Fox debate and declining Cruz's challenge to a cage match. IMO, in a real debate, Cruz would beat Trump senseless. Cruz has a knack of getting under people's skin while remaining calm himself. Trump's instinct is to hurl personal insults to fill time. That will not work for 90 minutes, so I agree that Trump would be a fool to debate Cruz in a true one on one debate.

There are no good options for Trump that I can see. He can look weak by not debating, he can lose face by showing up for the Fox debate, and/or he can debate Cruz and be embarrassed. Maybe Trump has been planning this for some time and will put on a good show for the Wounded Vets in Iowa, but it is hard to see how he gains ground on Cruz in Iowa.

Iowa is probably do or die for Cruz. If he wins, then he has a good shot to finish second in New Hampshire. That would build his name recognition and attract voters to his bandwagon going to South Carolina. If Trump wins and learns to control his mouth, then he could run the table if he takes Iowa.

I am still not sure that Trump did not enter the race as a distraction for Hillary. His behavior today was bizarre, even before he pulled out of the debate. It is the kind of thing a candidate would do if they did not want to win an election. I hope that he is not just taking a dive for some other candidate.