[Hoot Gibson]

The anti Trump forces are using subliminal messaging in an effort to give his supporters in Iowa an reasonable excuse for staying home on caucus night. If you have noticed, the suggestion has been repeated over and over again that Trump supporters may not brave the elements to vote. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say if the elements are harsh on Trump supporters, they will be harsh for the other candidate's supporters too.

I've not heard it suggested even one time that the winter conditions or the personal discipline necessary to show up at the polls to vote will effect any candidate's supporters other than Trump. I guess the thinking is that if Trump supporters are tired or otherwise tempted to stay home next Monday night, the oft repeated messaging will reinforce their desire to take a pass. :eyeroll:

I don't know which Republican will prevail. I do know that whoever lands the job will find a rough row to hoe lying ahead. Dems will be filled with indignation and very likely unwilling to cooperate in the slightest. If recent history is any indicator, their special interest caucuses would rather wreck the place than to see a Republican administration succeed. That is the sad state in which I believe we find ourselves today, and it may well take a man with 'New York values' to get much of anything done. The granny knot with which Reid and Pelosi has the Congress tied will not yield easily. The job of straightening out this land may have indeed been started, but this is one job that is going to require dogged diligence and late hours to accomplish.

The experts in Iowa say that Cruz already has precinct captains for 97 percent of the precincts. Santorum won the caucuses with 58 percent of the precincts covered. Cruz is also the second choice of more voters than Trump. I do not know all of the rules, but candidates must get a certain share of votes, or another round of voting is held and those candidates' delegates are released to vote for one of the other candidates. That process will favor Cruz.

Steve Deace, a prominent Iowa conservative talk radio host says that Cruz's ground game and the number of voters that list him as their second choice makes him the favorite to win. The evangelicals are well organized and experienced with caucusing compared to Trump's organization.

Trump will need a historic turnout to beat Cruz on Monday. It is difficult to see how Trump's refusal to participate in the next debate will generate much enthusiasm among his supporters. Trump has placed them on the defensive with his action today. Cruz's base will be fired up headed into the caucuses.