[Hoot Gibson]

A second major poll has Ted Cruz leading among likely Iowa caucus attendees. I just finished A Time for Truth: Reigniting the Promise of America a few days ago and Cruz is running his campaign exactly as he ran his winning U.S. Senate bid in Texas. Trump is running his campaign much like Cruz's Texas opponent, TX Attorney General, David Dewhurst ran his.

I expect that Trump will increasingly sling mud at Cruz and that Cruz will continue to campaign on issues before calling Trump out on his mudslinging face-to-face during a future debate. That is the way that the Texas campaign went and this one seems to be playing out the same way. Trump would be smart to study how Cruz overcame huge odds to win his Senate seat and avoid Dewhurst's mistakes - but I don't think that will happen.

[URL="http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r64LeSt1xPPk"]BLOOMBERG POLITICS/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL
Cruz 31 percent
Trump 21 percent[/URL]

This is the second recent Iowa poll that shows Cruz leading Trump among likely caucus attendees. A Dec. 7 Monmouth poll showed Cruz leading Trump 24% to 19%.

The results of a CNN/ORC poll was also released on Dec. 7, which has Trump with a 33% to 20% lead over Cruz, but that poll covers 11/28 through 12/6, compared with the sampling period of the latest DMR/Bloomberg poll, which covered 12/7 to 12/10. The trend is definitely running in favor of Cruz, with Trump falling and most other candidates being nearly unchanged.