[DragonFire]

The 2011-2014 alignment used the two latest years of enrollments available prior to their draft alignment, and that is the standard procedure they have used for at least the last few. The draft alignment is typically released in January of the year prior to the last year of the current alignment, once the current year numbers are released. What this means is that the numbers the initial post is looking at are from the average of the 2008-2009 & 2009-2010 school years. A LOT has changed since then and six classes introduce more volatility than we were once used to. Unless the KHSAA revises the way they do the classes or the numbers they use (and at this point there's no reason to believe they will), the statement that if a team isn't on the list they are unlikely to be moved is inaccurate.

The two years that are likely to be used for the next enrollment is the numbers from the 2012-2013 & 2013-2014 school years. We already have 12/13, and 13/14 should come out sometime this month or the next. You can get some idea of where teams may fall by looking at the single year that we do have, which will be half the equation (http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/201...enroll.pdf).

Some teams have taken massive jumps. Take Jeffersontown for example. They were just on the high side of the midpoint of 5A in the last alignment with an average of 627.5 males. They had 619 in the last of the two years used in the average (09/10). They enrolled 820 males last year, putting them just south of the midpoint in 6A, jumping from one midpoint to the other. There are a few cases like this. Fairdale and Owensboro have taken large jumps. South Warren is considered likely to jump from 3A all the way to 5A. Some have taken large drops, such as John Hardin. In 2009/10 they had 610 males. Last year they enrolled 492. They'll be in 4A for the next alignment barring one unbelievable leap in enrollment for this year.

Look at those enrollment numbers linked from 2012/13 and you'll get a decent idea of what teams may or may not be moving.