[AtlPirateFan]

Let's see if I can find a place to post some football talk without stepping in anything.

Improvement (Bourbon) and regression (Belfry) has been the theme behind a lot of opinions I have read so I am going to tackle those two in a rather lengthy analysis.

note: any stats mentioned from last year will be at this point in the season, going into week 14 with any week 14 or week 15 stats removed for accuracy.

Bourbon Co
Combing over the stats I see a few things that stand out about Bourbon Co. Offensively they are better than last years unit, slightly. This years offense has gained 600+ more yards coming into week 14 than they did at this same time last year, it has only netted them 10 extra points on the season. One thing that feels different about this Bourbon team is that it's not all hyped around one player. Offensively they have experience and weapons. Pope and Holman are great players.

Defensively Bourbon has been touted as "much improved" and "not the same thing" when compared to last years Bourbon Co team. I see a defense that has allowed more yards, especially on the passing end than last years team. The yards gained against them are covered up by the fact they have allowed about 25 fewer points than they had at this time last year. The difference? Bath was a decent team last year and put up some points that they did not get this year. Dakota Mitchell is the man to look out for on Defense, his numbers are down from last year and Holman who was the second best tackler on the team last year does not seem to be playing as well on defense this year.

I also see last years Bourbon schedule as being slightly better than this years. Neither have been trying.

The biggest takeaway is that Bourbon has not been tested this season at all. They have run and thrown all over weaker competition. That however does not mean they can no win.

Belfry
On paper and in the eyes of some (even Belfry fans) this Belfry offense looks to be significantly weaker than the past 2 years. Scoring 75 fewer points, 626 fewer rushing yards and 177 fewer passing yards. Thats how things look at a glance at the KHSAA stats, oh wait we need to add in the PCC playoff stats. Now we have scoring 28 fewer points, 124 fewer rushing yards and 144 fewer passing yards. Looking at the fact that Belfry has been working with several different backfields this season due to injuries and the upgraded schedule I would say this offense is almost as good as the last few years when it is clicking, the passing game isn't the same, but we didn't need it to beat Bourbon last year either. Turnovers have been an issue this year with a lot of fumbles during stretch in the middle of the season. Is it over?

Defensively Belfry is very young and the pieces have been toyed with all season long to bring us to were we are now. The current starting defense has given up 0 points in the playoffs. All three TD's (1 in each games) was scored in garbage time when the depth of the team was getting some playoff reps. Belfry's defense has faced the pass a lot this season and have overcome it fairly well. My brother and I talked earlier in the year that it seemed like the Pirates had not gotten the turnovers like they did last year. Funny part about that statement now (2012 30 takeaways and 2013 31 Takeaways). What is missing is a ball hawk like Josh Robinson.

Final thoughts
I don't care how good your offense is, how weak Belfry's defense appears to be on paper, Haywood will have them ready. Belfry has been a team working on defeating speed and balance since they ran into the Central wall in 2007. In 2010 a pretty bad (by Belfry standards) defense helped beat an undefeated Somerset team that threw up almost 700 points and had a very balanced offense. That 2010 team did not have an offense on the other side of the ball as good as this years Pirate offense. I'm not trying to say that because Belfry beat Somerset in 2010 they will win this year at Bourbon. I am simply stating the fact that this Belfry team is not as mediocre or overrated as some would have you believe and that even in their most mediocre of recent years (2010) they still game planned for and won against a heavy favorite.

Bourbon likes to hang their hats on the "we know what's coming" comments. Let me tell you that you don't. When you came to the CAM last year you saw Carr and Hatfield. A lot! While Carr is a workhorse and Hatfield a beast you saw nothing like what you are about to see when JJ and Dari join those two in the backfield rotation. Speed, power, finesse and pure determination.

Bourbon wins this game if Belfry's offense makes the same mistakes they made in the mid-late regular season and the defense fails to wrap up on tackles. They also will have to stop the machine that is the Belfry backfield, all of them.

Belfry wins this game by wrapping up the tackles and getting some pressure to Pope early. Belfry is ver physical, Pope is coming back off an injury and from what I hear has a pretty good baseball career that he needs to protect. Belfry needs to rattle him early and often to make this a one dimensional game.