[DragonFire]

It would be close, but i think BG would be 4A all day.
BG is inly going to grow in male enrollments.

BG actually has less males now than they did in the 2006/2007 school year. Last year was a peak in the data we have available (since 10/11 is curiously missing) but 4 of the 6 years we have available from the start of 06/07 to now BG has bounced between 559 males to 582. After a huge jump they made in the middle of the 2000s, they've only trickled in their increases. The cutoff for a mythical 4A from the 2012-13 numbers (which will be part of the actual next alignment along with 2013-14) is Lincoln County with 591. BG had 566 males in 12-13, meaning if Lincoln County stayed flat BG would have to enroll 616. 591 would be more males than BG has had since the mid-1980's let alone 616. BG would no way be 4A in a 4 class alignment for the 2015 season. If they grew enough, maybe they'd have a shot in 2019.

It's all beside the point of course since the four class system is probably dead and buried. If I didn't have such a fascination in the alignment and numbers game I probably wouldn't have stuck my nose in.

For what it's worth, it would take a similar leap by the teams behind Bowling Green to push them down, but they'd be the 9th smallest school in 5A if the next alignment were based only on the 2012-13 enrollment. If the Warren County School Board continues to lower the number of the cap mentioned by Adopted Purple each year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that come the 2019 alignment (if they continue 4 year alignments) that Bowling Green could be in 4A - in a six class system.

Also worth noting, Covington Catholic would be the smallest 5A school based on 2012-13 numbers. They would have a defined NKY district with Conner, Cooper, and Grant County. But there would also be one in 4A with Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, and Scott close enough to each other. Highlands may or may not seek a jump to 5A to maintain that rivalry with CovCath, and if going by the rules that playing up is only for geographic purposes, may not be allowed regardless.