[HSFOOTBALL]

Belfry won't single in on Hopkins. They rarely, if ever, adjust their defense to play a single person. What will be variable is whether they use their OLB/DE's for run support/penetration...or use them more in a pass coverage/read role.

When Belfry plays running teams they have a 5-2 Defense...without changing any players...they run a 3-4 against spread teams and stand up Messer/Hatfield as more of a LB.

I have sang the praises of Bourbon County on here for a while, and the Colonels are not only capable of beating Belfry, I could see them winning by a fairly large margin if they got up early and Belfry started turning the ball over. The Colonels have big play threats at every skill position. In my opinion they have the best offensive team in 3A this year, or at the very least the most balanced.

With that said, just as you say Belfry fans are underestimating Bourbon, I feel you may be underestimating Belfry. Belfry is going to be the fastest, most disciplined, most physical, and most explosive team Bourbon has faced. The Harris kid from Madison Southern is certainly the best skill player the Colonels have seen, but Belfry will probably bring numbers 2-7 to the table at the very least. As good as the Caudill kid from Garrard is at LB, Belfry has two of him in Mullins and Ghormley.

What I saw out of Bourbon is a team who makes impressive plays with their skill players and a team who struggles when they are asked to put together long drives. The Bourbon line is good for big plays. They give the QB just enough time to get the ball out to his WR's who either make a play in the open field or simply run past DB's. They hold their blocks just long enough for Hopkins to use his speed to get the edge. They are just quick enough to stay with the play and get just enough of a defender for Hopkins to break a tackle in the 2nd level and get off to the races. At no point do you see them manhandle an opposing defense or impose their will. When the Pirates want to apply pressure or try to disrupt plays in the backfield, I see them doing so. For Bourbon to win the key is going to be to maintain balance and force Belfry to honor an intermediate passing game. That is the only way you keep Messer and Hatfield floating in space on defense and out of the backfield, which should in turn give more chances for Hopkins to make a play in the running game, and subsequently open up the deep ball on offense.

I can see this game being a blowout for Belfry where they physically exhaust Bourbon and the Colonels offense works against them to give Belfry more chances to drive the football and good field position.

I can also see Bourbon jumping on Belfry and forcing the Pirates to play their tempo, where they subsequently blow Belfry out.

I think the way it most likely plays out is in that middle ground. I see Belfry moving the ball consistently, and hurting Bourbon with some big gashes either with the play action passing game or when the Colonels blow an assignment. I see Bourbon getting a couple stops either by blowing a play up in the backfield to force long yardage, or piggy backing a Belfry penalty that the Pirates can't pick up the necessary yardage. I see Bourbon hitting some home runs offensively, but with the Pirates getting them off the field fairly quickly on a few drives.

What I think this comes down to is familiarity. I think the Pirates are more familiar with the landscape of this game and will be less suspect to make mental errors brought on by nerves or trying to force things. I think Belfry is more familiar with playing an equal class of competition, whereas Bourbon will have to adjust to the speed of the game and the physicality. I think this is the recipe for critical turnovers and assignment errors that make the difference between otherwise two equal, but opposite opponents.

My prediction:
Belfry 33
Bourbon 24

Pirates clinch it with a late, long scoring drive against a physically exhausted Colonel defense.

I agree with the entire post except the bold part. Go through the last 5 pages of this thread and see how many people picked Bourbon. Bourbon is supposed to lose and according to most people (sans you) lose big. You can't underestimate such an overwhelming favorite. I am simply letting those fans, who are not as informed as you, know that Bourbon isn't a slouch and if Henry Clay and Ashland beat Belfry because of their athleticism, then this could be a recipe for disaster. You can watch all the game film of the first Garrard game that you want, but if you watch Bourbon's last 3 games, you will understand that this team is on a mission, and I don't think the bright lights and loud crowd of CAM stadium is going to effect the performance given. Should be a doozy!