[EKUAlum05]

I keep seeing high score predictions for the Belfry win. Belfry may very well win this game, but I would be VERY surprised if they put up big numbers in doing so.
IMO this will be one of the quickest defenses they have seen all year, and their scores will come off long sustained drives, and not quick hits. Belfry is going to grind Bourbon out 3-4 yards at a time, and if they are going to be successful, its their defense not their offense that will need to be big. Bourbon is a quick hitting team, and can put up points in a hurry. Belfry will need to stop Hopkins at the line of scrimmage, teams that have kept it close were successful at stopping Hopkins before he got to the second level, because once he gets to linebacker level, he is deadly. The biggest mistake Belfry can make is single in on Hopkins. Bourbon is full of athletes (Hopkins is maybe the 3-4 most athletic player on the team) and any of those guys are capable of taking it to the house in a flash. We'll see on Friday, but I think a lot people on this board are going to be shocked at what they see from Bourbon Co. and the balance of their team. They could come out and lay an egg, but I just don't see it happening.

Belfry won't single in on Hopkins. They rarely, if ever, adjust their defense to play a single person. What will be variable is whether they use their OLB/DE's for run support/penetration...or use them more in a pass coverage/read role.

When Belfry plays running teams they have a 5-2 Defense...without changing any players...they run a 3-4 against spread teams and stand up Messer/Hatfield as more of a LB.

I have sang the praises of Bourbon County on here for a while, and the Colonels are not only capable of beating Belfry, I could see them winning by a fairly large margin if they got up early and Belfry started turning the ball over. The Colonels have big play threats at every skill position. In my opinion they have the best offensive team in 3A this year, or at the very least the most balanced.

With that said, just as you say Belfry fans are underestimating Bourbon, I feel you may be underestimating Belfry. Belfry is going to be the fastest, most disciplined, most physical, and most explosive team Bourbon has faced. The Harris kid from Madison Southern is certainly the best skill player the Colonels have seen, but Belfry will probably bring numbers 2-7 to the table at the very least. As good as the Caudill kid from Garrard is at LB, Belfry has two of him in Mullins and Ghormley.

What I saw out of Bourbon is a team who makes impressive plays with their skill players and a team who struggles when they are asked to put together long drives. The Bourbon line is good for big plays. They give the QB just enough time to get the ball out to his WR's who either make a play in the open field or simply run past DB's. They hold their blocks just long enough for Hopkins to use his speed to get the edge. They are just quick enough to stay with the play and get just enough of a defender for Hopkins to break a tackle in the 2nd level and get off to the races. At no point do you see them manhandle an opposing defense or impose their will. When the Pirates want to apply pressure or try to disrupt plays in the backfield, I see them doing so. For Bourbon to win the key is going to be to maintain balance and force Belfry to honor an intermediate passing game. That is the only way you keep Messer and Hatfield floating in space on defense and out of the backfield, which should in turn give more chances for Hopkins to make a play in the running game, and subsequently open up the deep ball on offense.Defensively, I see a Bourbon DL who scraps and fights and occupies blockers, but does not necessarily make plays. They do a good job of keeping lanes clean for LB's to fill, but at not point do they show the ability to be a disruptive force on their own.

I can see this game being a blowout for Belfry where they physically exhaust Bourbon and the Colonels offense works against them to give Belfry more chances to drive the football and good field position.

I can also see Bourbon jumping on Belfry and forcing the Pirates to play their tempo, where they subsequently blow Belfry out.

I think the way it most likely plays out is in that middle ground. I see Belfry moving the ball consistently, and hurting Bourbon with some big gashes either with the play action passing game or when the Colonels blow an assignment. I see Bourbon getting a couple stops either by blowing a play up in the backfield to force long yardage, or piggy backing a Belfry penalty that the Pirates can't pick up the necessary yardage. I see Bourbon hitting some home runs offensively, but with the Pirates getting them off the field fairly quickly on a few drives.

What I think this comes down to is familiarity. I think the Pirates are more familiar with the landscape of this game and will be less suspect to make mental errors brought on by nerves or trying to force things. I think Belfry is more familiar with playing an equal class of competition, whereas Bourbon will have to adjust to the speed of the game and the physicality. I think this is the recipe for critical turnovers and assignment errors that make the difference between otherwise two equal, but opposite opponents.

My prediction:
Belfry 33
Bourbon 24

Pirates clinch it with a late, long scoring drive against a tiring Colonel defense.