[EKUAlum05]

IMO, two players on both sides of the ball that will be the X Factor in this one for Belfry, and may dictate whether the Pirates win or lose, will be Tony Messer and Sani Warren.

Offensively, we all know exactly what Breathitt will do when playing defense. They are going to chop down linemen with their DL, let the LB's fill the power gaps, and try to eliminate the Belfry interior running game and force turnovers with penetration. Warren has to be smart with his reads, but if there is any Pirate with the chance to bust a big play off the corner by selling a play fake it is Sani. I full expect Breathitt to be extremely prepared for the belly series and for the 2nd man through like always... but if there is one play Belfry has not used as much it is the QB keeper off tackle following that 2nd fake to the HB.


Breathitt is going to play their corners on an island with a single safety playing up primarily in run support. Messer being 6'4 will be a mis-match every time he goes down field for a pass. If the Pirate O-line can give Sani enough time the big play will be there with Messer in the passing game. It is just about Warren making the throw and Messer making the catch.




Defensively, Messer is a beast at DE and is the single best option for Belfry to pressure Trent or disrupt their running game. Belfry's Interior LB's are as good as you will find. If Messer can set the edge and force Trent back inside all night I like Belfry's chances. As good of a passer Trent is, the difference between his accuracy when he is either set or can watch his primary receiver get open is night and day.

Warren is Belfry's best cover guy and he will be challenged often as Breathitt loves throwing that deep fly and taking a shot downfield. Much like Messer on offense, Breathitt has very tall receivers that give them an advantage. It is crucial for Warren to play sensational coverage, but also to avoid PI's.

A side point this brings up is the officiating. I dont know what crew is working tonight or where they are from, but I would put good money they have not worked a game this year of this magnitude with such an electric environment. It is human nature for this to effect the officiating. Typically it means smaller things and plays in the mesh point get overlooked a little more (holding, offsides, procedure), whereas isolated judgement calls are flagged more frequently (PI, Late Hit, Black in the Back). I don't know if this favors either team, but it bares watching especially with the deep passes thrown by Breathitt and the outside running game of Belfry.