[DollarBill]

CovCath seem to have a good team, a great 3 year starter (and potential Division 1 college) QB and are off to a good start albeit against some rather average competition so I understand your enthusiasm but overall history and the odds are against them with respect to winning state. History tells us that Highlands has won 7 straight against CCH and 18 of the last 21 games by an average margin of 20 points (35-15). Over the 18 years since the seniors on these teams have been alive CCH has beaten Highlands a total of 4times and twice in one year exactly one time. So far this year Highlands has scored 50+ each game against the two teams it has faced (both ranked top 3 in the state in upper classes) something that happened to those two teams a total of once to either of them last year (Scott Co. to Trinity in state finals)(In fact, both Boyle co and Scott teams gave up more than 20 points in only two games each last year including the Scott Co/Trinity game and Boyle co's loss to Highlands--so only once each to teams not named Trinity or Highlands). Add in the fact that Lexington Catholic and Boyle Co both have great teams this year and the statistical odds of running the table and beating Highlands, LexCath/Boyle Co and the state championship game in three consecutive weeks is low (e.g., if you assume a 50% chance of winning each game is 12.5%). Also, if they would lose their regular season game on the road to Highlands (who have won 42 straight games at home) that likely would send CCH on the long road trip to Johnson Central in the second round who has beaten CCH in the last 3 consecutive playoff games (2008-2010) so you can't call that game a lock either although the CCH should be a favorite so that would further reduce their statistical chances of winning state to under 10%. Bottom line it is going to be a tough road for them and really all the top 4 teams in 4A that have to go through 2 of the other top 4 teams just to get to the state championship game. A good chance that the result ultimately may depend on the health/injury status of the teams and turnovers, special teams, penalties when these teams meet up in the playoffs.