[Stardust]

Mark Valeski
Why he can win: He ran the entire Louisiana Derby without a front shoe and lost by only a half-length. He lost the Risen Star by a nose to El Padrino, who is a legit contender.

Why he can’t: Since 1971 only 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 earned his first stakes victory in the Derby (we’re giving Alysheba credit for finishing first in the ’87 Blue Grass, though disqualified).