[Stardust]

Alpha
Why he can win: If you like Gemologist, you’ve got to like Alpha, who was a fast-flying second in the Wood. He’s absolutely bred for the distance. Most important, Godolphin is trying to win this Derby going the conventional route, not from Dubai.

Why he can’t: Only one horse (Smarty Jones 2004) has won the Derby after racing over Aqueduct’s inner track. He’s had gate issues, which is bad thing in the Derby. The last time he was at Churchill Downs before a big crowd, he was fractious at the gate and wound up 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.