[Stardust]

Bodemeister
Why he can win: The 9½-length Arkansas Derby winner is the fastest horse in the race, the only one with three straight triple-digit Beyer speed figures. He’s by a Belmont winner, so distance shouldn’t be a problem.

Why he can’t: All the other speed will be the problem. Other Derby “rules” have fallen by the wayside, except for the granddaddy of them all: Only Apollo in 1882 won the Derby without racing at 2. He’s this year’s Bellamy Road, the 2005 Derby favorite after earning a huge speed figure in taking the Wood Memorial by 17½ lengths. Like Bellamy Road, Bodemeister is a classic “bounce” case.