[Stardust]

Dullahan
Why he can win: No horse finished faster than he did in winning the Blue Grass. He had excuses when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup, and racing on dirt will not be an issue. His dam already has produced a Derby winner in 50-1 Mine That Bird.

Why he can’t: He finished like a grass horse in the Blue Grass on Polytrack because, in the end, that’s what he is: better on turf or poly. No mare ever has produced two Derby winners. Since 1955, only two Derby winners needed more than four starts to win a race. Dullahan took five (of course, that came in a Grade I race).