[Stardust]

In such a wide-open field as this Kentucky Derby, how can you tell which horses are peaking at the right time and are the best equipped to run 1¼ miles? One handicapping theory addresses that by looking at how fast horses are running at the end of their final prep races, usually at 11/8 miles.

Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 11/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths.

Twelve of the horses in today’s race came in under the 13.0 and 38.0 cutoffs, a sign of the depth of this field.

The final time of a race, which can be a function of track conditions and pace, is not considered as much of a factor with this theory.

In 15 of the past 21 years, including 10 of the past 13 in which the Derby winner’s final prep was at 11/8 miles, he ran the final furlong in 13 seconds or less. (Animal Kingdom, however, blew this theory by plodding the last eighth in the Vinery Racing Spiral in 13.4.)

Also, 15 of the past 21 Derby winners ran their last three-eighths in 38 seconds or less in their final 11/8-mile prep. (Again, Animal Kingdom bucked the trend, coming home in 39.3.)

The fastest finishing times in this field were by Toyota Blue Grass winner Dullahan (11.9, 35.7), though that came on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The fastest finishes on dirt were Bodemeister’s 12.0 in his Arkansas Derby victory and Creative Cause’s 36.0 in losing the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.

Bodemeister ran his last three-eighths in 37.3, while Creative Cause’s final eighth was 12.4.

Unbeaten Wood Memorial winner Gemologist is a split at 13.2 and 38.0, which is right on the three-eighths number. Alpha, the Wood runner-up, is right on the bubble in both categories at 13.0 and 38.0.

Only four horses fail to meet either criterion. Daddy Long Legs, winner of the 13/16-mile UAE Derby, and the sprinter Trinniberg did not run at 11/8 miles.

The computations take into account how far a horse is behind the leader at the finish and with an eighth-mile and three-eighths of a mile to go. It also assumes the accuracy of the Equibase race charts, for which human observation is used to determine margins at the points of call before the finish.

Synthetic surfaces such as Keeneland’s throw a wrinkle in this because their races often are run like grass races, which tend to start slowly and finish fast.

The fractional and adjusted final times this year were calculated by the Twitter feed @derbycontenders.

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