[PHSFAN]

I just read Chris Bailey's weather blog on wkyt.com...below is his entry for today.


Posted by Chris Thursday 1/5/06 1PM e-mail Chris: [email]chris.bailey@wkyt.com[/email]

Good afternoon on another ugly day here in the bluegrass state. Can we really complain, though? I mean we were near 60 Yesterday under sunny skies.

I know all of my fellow snow birds out there are probably fed up with this winter already. We totally waisted a cold December and now January is starting off very mild across much of the country. As I mentioned in my winter outlook... a rather extended period of above normal temps was expected in late January into early February with a change of cold soon after carrying us over into March. It is now my contention that this mild up has now started earlier than I anticipated. I was expecting roughly a 3 week window of milder air. We are in week 2 of the current run of mild temps meaning we should see another week or so of mild temps.

Moral of the story is we still have some mild times to go through to get to the middle and end of January. That is when a much colder pattern should be setting up for much of the country. I have talked about how the Pacific and Atlantic water profiles are now looking very good and are likely indicators as to what is to come. Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the oceans and their effects on the atmosphere.

Here is the usual breakdown:

Today into the overnight will feature some drizzle changing over to somw snow flurries and snow showers. Temps overnight will head into the upper 20s with snow showers increasing a bit. Some minor ac***ulations will noted across the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky. Snow flurries will taper off on Friday as highs reach the low 30s.

The weekend looks okay right now. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 30s. Sunday has me a bit befuddled as there may be some sort of a system shearing out across the Ohio Valley. Temps will head well into the 40s. Will there be a late day shower? Possibly.

Next week finds quite a model war going on as the Canadian is drawing in some really cold air by the end of next week while the GFS is very mild. I think both are off and a comprimise of temps is the way to go and that is what the European is showing. Basically we will see several shower chances with temps normal to above.

It is interesting to note that all of the models are showing winter returning by day 10. This would fit nicely as it would be at the end of my 3 week mild period.

That's all I have for now. See you on Friday.