[oak 76]

Count me in the minority who actually thinks this game won't be a high scoring game for the Pirates.

Here's the midset I would follow of Chapman's:
- He knows that if Belfry controls the football on offense and the TOP his team simply does not have the line play or depth the survive 4 Quarters.

- Belfry may be vulnerable to the deep ball, but by going to the well too often it exponentially increases the likelihood of turnovers. It also reduces the odds of completions resulting in higher chances of 3 and Out's. Even if the deep ball produces a couple scores, you just forced your defense into a quick change situation where they are right back on the field against the Belfry grind.

- Pike Central simply does not have the interior DL to stalwart Belfry up the middle and allow the LB's and DE's to spread out and thus take away the outside. In order to shut down Belfry's running game they will need to pick which aspect they want to take away.

If they load the box they could forseeably take away Belfry's bread and butter up the middle, the issue then becomes giving up big plays on the outside and a premium on tackles up the middle. One missed tackle on misdirection = TD. One assignment error on the option= TD.It also means they become increasingly vulnerable to play action and their DB's are on an island by themselves. A corner bits on the playfake and Howie Dotson is wide open for a TD.

The other option is spread his defense out a bit. Belfry is not a dominant outside running team and can be contained as proven by Ashland. This also gives them more assistance in pass coverage and clearer views to watch Williams as he goes through his progressions. The downside is you run the risk of dying the death of a thousand cuts as Belfry rides Tre Willis 4 yards at a time down the field. This means more snaps. The positive for PC means more opportunities for Belfry to fumble or shoot themselves in the foot with a penalty, the negative means the Hawk interior defense will have a much higher chance of fatigue.

Ashland proved you can take away Belfry's outside game, but even if PC stacks the box it doesn't assure they will be able to keep Belfry from grinding yards anyway.

-Based on all this I expect PC to play Belfry wide on defense, and take a fairly conservative offensive approach. IMO, PC will try to shorten the game and keep their defense as fresh as possible. I think PC will try to establish their running game, use intermediate passing routes, and take very calculated risks downfield.

Based on all this I think the score stays fairly low unless PC starts to panic.

Belfry 27
PC 14

I don't know EKU but he knows a lot about football.