[More Cowbell]

Game 1 - Jair Jurrjens (Atl) (12-3) vs. Bronson Arroyo (Cin) (7-8) 7:10 PM

Game 2 - Derek Lowe (Atl) (6-7) vs. Homer Bailey (Cin) (4-4) 4:10 PM

Game 3 - Brandon Beachy (Atl) (3-2) vs. Dontrelle Willis (Cin) (0-1) 8:05 PM

The Reds are my 2nd favorite team, but there is no way they take game 1. I give them a chance to win the 2nd and 3rd, but game one belongs to Atlanta.

I agree, that pitching matchup on Friday looks to be tilted heavily in favor of the Braves. There's no way in the world I would ever pick the Reds to win that one, but when you read the ESPN preview of Friday's game the simulation only gives Atlanta a 52% chance of winning. That seems odd to me, home field advantage shouldn't count for that much, especially considering Jurrjens is one of the best in the league and Arroyo has really struggled, but maybe their simulator computer knows something we don't...

As for the other two matchups, I give the Reds a solid advantage on Saturday (Bailey over Lowe), and the Braves a decent advantage on Sunday (Beachy over Willis).