[BOBCAT]

I didn't get suspended, just a slap on the wrist so to speak. I just kind of kept quite for a while. I was treading deep water.
I didn't think Bobcat would last long after that last remark, that's why I edited mine.

What remark?This is my first post.How did I get suspended?

[raiderwave]

Looking at this next game purely in a statistical manner. No leaning either way, just pure numbers.....

Belfry has scored 567 points and allowed 128 points.
Breathitt has scored 487 points and allowed 207 points.

Belfry averages 43.6 per game, Breathitt 37.5

Belfry allows an average of 9.8 per game, Breathitt 15.9

Belfry's per game scoring is 6.1 points higher, while allowing 6.1 fewer points. Add those together and you get 12.2. Or, to get that same number, take each teams averages and subtract (example 43.6 minus 9.8 = 33.8. 37.5 minus 15.9 = 21.6. Then, 33.8 minus 21.6 = 12.2)

Either way, Belfry on average scores more and allows less.

Now look at common opponents: Shelby Valley and Johnson Central.

Belfry beat both (SV 47-6, JC 21-13) Breathitt split (SV 49-22, JC 14-26)

Total points for both: Belfry 68, opponents 19. Breathitt 63, opponents 48.

This shows a 5 point difference on offense, which is similar to the 6.1 for the whole season. Where there is a difference is on defense, where Breathitt allowed 29 more points to common opponents.

Both of Breathitt's common games were at home. Belfry's win over JC was on the road. Belfry beat SV by 41, Breathitt beat them by 27, a difference of 14. I know you cannot compare a loss to a win point-wise, but in the JC game Belfry allowed JC 13 points, Breathitt allowed them 26, a difference of 13 points there.

So in these type of comparisons, Belfry seems to be anywhere from a 12.2 to a 14-point favorite. And since Breathitt lost at home to a team Belfry beat on the road, I'd have to think there is some advantage to Belfry playing at home.

What I can glean from all of this is if both teams play as they have all year, Belfry wins going away by at least 2 TDs. Statistically, it would take Breathitt playing probably the best game of their entire year to win this game, but only if Belfry plays less than their average game. In my mind, entering this game Breathitt is a 14 point underdog, minimum.

I give Belfry 3 more above the 14 for playing at home. My prediction is Belfry 31, Breathitt 14........Which is exactly 1/2 the score from last year's game, huh?

I understand comparing scores, but if you really want to do that, they share a third common opponent in Lawrence County. Belfry won that game 20-13, Breathitt beat Lawrence 37-14. I just believe you can't compare scores. Anything can happen in the playoffs... Should be a really good game.

[ukcatfan88]

I missed the Lawrence Co. game, so that does throw it off somewhat. I'm not going to try and rehash all of that again. I was simply showing that numbers supported a Belfry advantage, rather than just come on here and say "Belfry will kill Breathitt!"

I think even with the Lawrence Co. numbers added in BHS still does have an advantage. I stick by my 17-point difference, though.

[blackcat_mvp6]

Breathitt and Belfry are both very good teams. They both have outstanding coaches who have made a living out of winning the big games. This Belfry team is just to much for the Bobcats. I mean Fugate is just one kid. Not taking anything from him. He is a great player and fun to watch. The Pirates just have to many weapons that can all have a break out play at any moment. They are hungry for that State Championship and I just can't see them losing in CAM Stadium. I say it will be close til the 4th quarter then Belfry will pull out a 2 TD lead and won't look back.

Breathitt 14

Belfry 28

[97baseball]

Beathitt in a close one.

[C.Clair]

I think this game will be alot closure then people think it will be. Belfry doesnt have that great of pass defense and Breathitt can come away from CAM with a win if they can exploit that kink in Belfry's armor, but they have to be able to connect on those passes is the only thing.

[SPORTS FAN 101]

Breathitt County 28 @ Belfry 24

I think Breathitt Co wins in a close game.

[cuppett777]

well i know rhat the last 4 out of 5 games that i have been to watch no one has scored on them by a pass...

[Poseidon]

well i know rhat the last 4 out of 5 games that i have been to watch no one has scored on them by a pass...

Who have they played that pass the ball? Not saying that Belfry does not have a good defense, but they have not played anyone that could pass the ball well. Breathitt is more of a spread-option team than a drop-back passing team this year and they are passing the ball a lot less.

[Poseidon]

I think this game will be alot closure then people think it will be. Belfry doesnt have that great of pass defense and Breathitt can come away from CAM with a win if they can exploit that kink in Belfry's armor, but they have to be able to connect on those passes is the only thing.

What is up with those uniforms? I see highlights on sports-overtime via the internet and it looks as if they have their practice jerseys on......Any plans on changing uni's...they look kinda cheap....

[EKUAlum05]

I think this game will be alot closure then people think it will be. Belfry doesnt have that great of pass defense and Breathitt can come away from CAM with a win if they can exploit that kink in Belfry's armor, but they have to be able to connect on those passes is the only thing.

I actually agree somewhat with you. Belfry's biggest QUESTION MARK is thier pass defense, I don't think anyone will deny it. With that being said, the only reason Belfry's pass defense is questionable is because you have to compare it to Belfry's run defense which will be unlike anything Breathitt has seen. Belfry in all honesty has a better pass defense than nearly any team in the mountains, Breathitt included, but Breathitt also has an above average passing team and even the best mountain pass defenses traditionally are still not very good.

[Crossbones]

What remark?This is my first post.How did I get suspended?

I wasn't referring to you. If this is your first post you should have known that. Read back through the thread and you will see. I said "Bobcat" (meaning Breathitt Bobcat) , not BOBCAT, spelled with all caps.

[footballcrazy08]

What is up with those uniforms? I see highlights on sports-overtime via the internet and it looks as if they have their practice jerseys on......Any plans on changing uni's...they look kinda cheap....

Belfry's uniforms have been this way for years and I don't see them changing anytime in the near future. It doesn't matter if you have the nicest fanciest jerseys out there what it comes down to is who gets that W at the end of the 4th quarter and Belfry has seen plenty of those W's this year. I believe the jersey represents the harworking, good 'ol country boy effect. So I think everyone would agree that the uniforms are just fine

[Belfry_99]

Belfry's uniforms have been this way for years and I don't see them changing anytime in the near future. It doesn't matter if you have the nicest fanciest jerseys out there what it comes down to is who gets that W at the end of the 4th quarter and Belfry has seen plenty of those W's this year. I believe the jersey represents the harworking, good 'ol country boy effect. So I think everyone would agree that the uniforms are just fine

I think he was refering to Breathitt's jerseys. I also noticed them on Sports OT, and I was thinking the same thing.

[bobcatfan22]

This is going to be one **** of a game. Both teams are loaded with talent and I see Breathitt winning this one. Their on fire right now and its gonna be hard for Belfry to stop Fugate. Breathitt 30-21

[GotMoney#1]

Lets go Belfry!!!!!!!!!!!! Channing fugate wont run on this teams defense!!

[PIRATE PRIDE]

belfry will win but it will be a hard win

[OutlawJoseyWales]

I think the difference in this game will come down to Belfry's overall quickness...especially on defense. I'm quite certain Breathitt hasn't faced a team who can penetrate and meet the runner in the hole like Belfry has done when motivated. Certainly, in some games the Pirates have given up yardage via the ground.....especially when playing inferior teams. Whether that 's been due to lack of motivation, effort or just the "general malaise" that all teams go thru....that's up for debate. However, even in those games....their defense has proven very stingy in the red zone.

Against higher caliber teams....Johnson Central, Sheldon Clark and Russell.....a completely different defensive mindset appeared. When this defense is on...they're extremely difficult to knock off the ball, exhibiting quickness as they effort to close a hole or pinch the outside.

The challenge Breahitt faces....and they may have an answer for is they must find someone else other than Fugate to carry the ball. Whether Haddix is capable of getting to the outside remains to be seen. The Fugate kid is a good looking back...alot of size....very capable of busting up the tackle gaps for good gainers. Whether he can do that against Belfry is the big question.

Believe me...if Fugate gets 200+ yards.....it could be a long night for Belfry. That kind of rushing yards would indicate long, sustained drives....keeping Belfry's offense....which I don't think Breathitt has any answer for defensively off the field.

In the end....it comes down to balance.......and I'm not convinced Breathitt has quite enough to upend the Pirates. I'm not saying they can't. Holcomb is an excellent coach...and a solid strategist.....however, in my mind, Breathitt is a year away from a trip to the finals.

[EKUAlum05]

This is going to be one **** of a game. Both teams are loaded with talent and I see Breathitt winning this one. Their on fire right now and its gonna be hard for Belfry to stop Fugate. Breathitt 30-21

Belfry is 14-0 and have won on the road at johnson Central and utterly dominated Sheldon Clark (twice) and Russell... I don't think Breathitt being on fire has alot to do with this one.

[footballcrazy08]

This is going to be one **** of a game. Both teams are loaded with talent and I see Breathitt winning this one. Their on fire right now and its gonna be hard for Belfry to stop Fugate. Breathitt 30-21

I watched film of the Breathitt Co. vs Estill Co. game and was not really that impressed with Fugate or Estill Co. He is very quick and stout and makes great cuts but Estill Co. was not playing great defense against the run unlike Belfry's defense against the run. Poor tackling from Estill Co. determined that game. Can't wait to watch that Angry Red Defense Friday Night!

[Poseidon]

Belfry's uniforms have been this way for years and I don't see them changing anytime in the near future. It doesn't matter if you have the nicest fanciest jerseys out there what it comes down to is who gets that W at the end of the 4th quarter and Belfry has seen plenty of those W's this year. I believe the jersey represents the harworking, good 'ol country boy effect. So I think everyone would agree that the uniforms are just fine

Breathitt's uniforms just seemed different to me from the last few years. I do think that a uniform does have a psychological affect on a team....... When dealing with teenagers half the job is psychology in my opinion....

[P.C.Defense]

I think everyone on here is forgetting one BIG thing.......IVAN LEE. He is bigger than Fugate,Faster than Fugate and a heckuva lot harder to stop. So why is everyone disrespecting him by not recognizing him.But its ok if Breatthit forgets about him LOL

Lee is hard to stop and a heck of a player. In no way is he faster or as versatile as Fugate.

[P.C.Defense]

I watched film of the Breathitt Co. vs Estill Co. game and was not really that impressed with Fugate or Estill Co. He is very quick and stout and makes great cuts but Estill Co. was not playing great defense against the run unlike Belfry's defense against the run. Poor tackling from Estill Co. determined that game. Can't wait to watch that Angry Red Defense Friday Night!

Alot of the poor tackling was Fugate's fault not Estill's. He is the hardest back to tackle I have seen on the high school level. Estill was very strong and very physical.

[EKUAlum05]

Lee is hard to stop and a heck of a player. In no way is he faster or as versatile as Fugate.

I'll agree with you on the speed and versatility... Fugate is also a fantastic pass catcher. It's rare you wil find a kid wth the size and build of Fugate, that has as much agility and balance.

BUT, Lee is very fast and I would give him the edge in terms of pure power.

[P.C.Defense]

Belfry is 14-0 and have won on the road at johnson Central and utterly dominated Sheldon Clark (twice) and Russell... I don't think Breathitt being on fire has alot to do with this one.

Beating Johnson Central was the exclamation game for Belfry. Big time win to establish Belfry as top dog in 3A with that win. Breathitt beat Estill twice who was rated in the top 10 in 3A. Breathitt beat Harlan Central twice who was rated in the top 10 in 3A. Breathitt beat L.C.A. who is rated in the top 2 in 1A.
Breathitt lost to Johnson Central first game of the year 26-14 and Prestonsburg 28-21 and both of these teams made it to the third round of the playoffs. Breathitt by far has played alot all around tougher schedule.

[Defender12]

i say that breathitt will win as long as channing fugate stays healthy. Channing fugate will run all over belfrey if they hit him high and dont do the fundimentals. But last week in the estill county game channing looked like he hurt his ankle but he played right on through it. I think the score will be Breathitt-14 Belfrey-13 itll be a last second play to!!

[P.C.Defense]

I'll agree with you on the speed and versatility... Fugate is also a fantastic pass catcher. It's rare you wil find a kid wth the size and build of Fugate, that has as much agility and balance.

BUT, Lee is very fast and I would give him the edge in terms of pure power.

Straight ahead power, Lee is a brute power runner and has good speed for a big back. Fugate is a big back as well but has the agility to hit the sideline and out run the defense. Both are exceptional but their styles are totally different.
Hard to compare Lee and Fugate because they are different styles.

[EKUAlum05]

i say that breathitt will win as long as channing fugate stays healthy. Channing fugate will run all over belfrey if they hit him high and dont do the fundimentals. But last week in the estill county game channing looked like he hurt his ankle but he played right on through it. I think the score will be Breathitt-14 Belfrey-13 itll be a last second play to!!

Have you seen a Belfry team play defense before? It would shock me if they hit high and are not as fundamentlly sound as possible.

[footballcrazy08]

Alot of the poor tackling was Fugate's fault not Estill's. He is the hardest back to tackle I have seen on the high school level. Estill was very strong and very physical.

I agree and disagree. Belfry's boys do not tackle like that so The Pirate Faithful has nothing to worry about.

[hoopfan1]

Belfry by 14