[Westside]

Who is your pick to win the national championship?

[UKisN1]

Texas

[Old School Hound]

People still watch college football??? If UK or EKU ain't playin, I'm not interested.

[plantmanky]

I am rooting for Arizona State............but I dont see Oregon losing.

[King Kong]

I would've said Georgia,  but I think Beck maybe out the rest of the way.  The backup qb done a good job though.  Plus beating Texas 3 time's in a year if it comes down to it will be tough.  I really like Georgia and Texas defenses. 

Oregon has some of the fastest guys I've seen on a football field.  

Ohio St really throttled Tennessee.  Ohio St played Oregon tough earlier in the year.  I'm picking Ohio St to beat Oregon next week.  

Notre Dame,  I believe is somewhat being slept on.  

I believe either Georgia or Ohio St wins it all. Texas might slip in there and Oregon may very well go undefeated and win it all.  Kinda tough to call right now.  Even with a backup qb I believe Georgia's defense is good enough to slow opposing offenses down.

[Cactus Jack]

Oregon got a rough draw to be the #1 overall team-- they were the best team in the regular season but the deck is stacked against them right now. I'd think they'd have much rather played the winner of Notre Dame/Indiana or even Penn State/SMU before the winner of Ohio State/Tennessee. Ohio State is favored in the Rose Bowl by 2.5 points, which was a bit surprising to me. Ohio State really has nothing to lose at this point. There would definitely be much more pressure on them if this were the National Championship game and there was all the talk about Ryan Day not being able to win big games. As someone who loathes the Buckeyes, I worry that he's going to be due to win a big one at some point.

Texas is in the best spot. I'd be a huge upset if they were to lose to Arizona State in Atlanta. Assuming they don't choke this week, the toughest game for them the rest of the way is probably be the winner of Oregon-Ohio State, and that one is in the Cotton Bowl at Dallas. Would have to think they'd have a huge following there given the distance from Eugene or Columbus (and that OSU fans may be a bit fatigued after a home game and a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns have some holes, but they can do enough to beat anyone if they play well. If I had to pick anyone, they seem the safest by virtue of their path and depth-- what other team could survive an injury to one of their best players (Ewers) and replace him without really missing a beat?

Georgia is definitely going to be without Carson Beck the rest of the way, as he had a surgical procedure on his UCL ~2 weeks ago. Watching everyone this season, I thought Georgia had the most talent, and when they showed up ready to play, they looked better than anyone else. They also had a habit of playing down to their competition and coming into games with a lack of energy and focus. I'm not saying that they'd have won it if Beck were healthy because it honestly seemed like he'd lost the team at some points this season, but I am pretty skeptical about Gunner Stockton being able to win three straight, especially as film gets out on him and teams make adjustments. I think they'll survive Notre Dame in New Orleans, and maybe even survive their next one against the winner of Penn State-Boise State in Miami, but even against whoever makes it out of the top, I don't know that they have enough to win if it comes down to Stockton needing to play from behind or they get into a shootout where he needs to answer with points or long, sustained drives. It seemed like they were using a lot of smoke and mirrors when he was thrown into the Texas game; I wouldn't be shocked if they have to go to Jaden Rashada or Ryan Puglisi (read: their third and fourth string QBs at Thanksgiving) at some point, even if it's just to see if they can get hot or mix it up if Stockton stalls out.

Notre Dame is the team I've watched least, but I have a hard time seeing the eventual national champion being beaten by NIU. Until Notre Dame does two things, I personally won't count on them beating elite teams: 1. getting the type of speed at their skill positions that truly elite teams have; 2. actually beating someone and being worthy of the status that their fans and the media often thinks they have. Not saying they're terrible, but I think they're probably closer to Boise State or Arizona State than they are to Texas or Oregon-- what separates them from that tier usually isn't so much size as keeping everyone from running past them vertically. Even if their defense could hold up, they only put 27, 23, 31, and 31 on Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, and Louisville, so I can't see them scoring enough to beat a Texas, Ohio State, or Oregon.

Boise State is a cool story and they're giant killing underdogs who won't be intimidated or caught up in the moment. At the same time, there's a pretty big line favoring Penn State (-11), especially with a low over/under on total points (52). Penn State has a cross-country flight and their 7:30 ET kickoff will be 4:30 local time. I'd think they've been there for a few days at this point, but transnational flights have a pretty pronounced effect on NFL results (and the Big Ten expansion has shown that the collegiate game is following the same trend(s). I think they'd need to both get up early and get at least one defensive or special teams touchdown to really have a shot.

The above aside, I think Penn State will ultimately put away the Broncos. Low-key, this seems like a really nice dark horse to come out of the bottom bracket. Their biggest issue seems to be playing in shoot-outs or from behind. Boise isn't built to test them like that; re-read what I wrote about Notre Dame if you think they are; Georgia might be able to out-score them if they control the line of scrimmage and run the ball down their throat, but I think it's a big ask of their back-up that's known as more of a scrambler to execute a game plan designed around getting into an up-tempo game with them.


Predictions:
Oregon 28, Ohio State 27
Texas 35, Arizona State 17
Penn State 31, Boise State 21
Georgia 24, Notre Dame 13

Texas 30, Oregon 28
Penn State 21, Georgia 17

Texas 42, Penn State 30


The only things that would surprise me:
- Arizona State winning a game.
- Boise State winning more than one game.
- Notre Dame not ultimately being proven to be a fraud... again.
- Someone other than Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, or Georgia (with an electric back-up QB) winning the CFP.

Fun Fact:
If Oregon wins the natty, they'll be the first team to win their first NCAA Football Championship since Florida in 1996.

[Granny Bear]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

[Van Hagar]

I feel the exact same way, Granny. And please let it be any of these teams other than Ohio (gag) St.

[King Kong]

Oregon got a rough draw to be the #1 overall team-- they were the best team in the regular season but the deck is stacked against them right now. I'd think they'd have much rather played the winner of Notre Dame/Indiana or even Penn State/SMU before the winner of Ohio State/Tennessee. Ohio State is favored in the Rose Bowl by 2.5 points, which was a bit surprising to me. Ohio State really has nothing to lose at this point. There would definitely be much more pressure on them if this were the National Championship game and there was all the talk about Ryan Day not being able to win big games. As someone who loathes the Buckeyes, I worry that he's going to be due to win a big one at some point.

Texas is in the best spot. I'd be a huge upset if they were to lose to Arizona State in Atlanta. Assuming they don't choke this week, the toughest game for them the rest of the way is probably be the winner of Oregon-Ohio State, and that one is in the Cotton Bowl at Dallas. Would have to think they'd have a huge following there given the distance from Eugene or Columbus (and that OSU fans may be a bit fatigued after a home game and a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns have some holes, but they can do enough to beat anyone if they play well. If I had to pick anyone, they seem the safest by virtue of their path and depth-- what other team could survive an injury to one of their best players (Ewers) and replace him without really missing a beat?

Georgia is definitely going to be without Carson Beck the rest of the way, as he had a surgical procedure on his UCL ~2 weeks ago. Watching everyone this season, I thought Georgia had the most talent, and when they showed up ready to play, they looked better than anyone else. They also had a habit of playing down to their competition and coming into games with a lack of energy and focus. I'm not saying that they'd have won it if Beck were healthy because it honestly seemed like he'd lost the team at some points this season, but I am pretty skeptical about Gunner Stockton being able to win three straight, especially as film gets out on him and teams make adjustments. I think they'll survive Notre Dame in New Orleans, and maybe even survive their next one against the winner of Penn State-Boise State in Miami, but even against whoever makes it out of the top, I don't know that they have enough to win if it comes down to Stockton needing to play from behind or they get into a shootout where he needs to answer with points or long, sustained drives. It seemed like they were using a lot of smoke and mirrors when he was thrown into the Texas game; I wouldn't be shocked if they have to go to Jaden Rashada or Ryan Puglisi (read: their third and fourth string QBs at Thanksgiving) at some point, even if it's just to see if they can get hot or mix it up if Stockton stalls out.

Notre Dame is the team I've watched least, but I have a hard time seeing the eventual national champion being beaten by NIU. Until Notre Dame does two things, I personally won't count on them beating elite teams: 1. getting the type of speed at their skill positions that truly elite teams have; 2. actually beating someone and being worthy of the status that their fans and the media often thinks they have. Not saying they're terrible, but I think they're probably closer to Boise State or Arizona State than they are to Texas or Oregon-- what separates them from that tier usually isn't so much size as keeping everyone from running past them vertically. Even if their defense could hold up, they only put 27, 23, 31, and 31 on Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, and Louisville, so I can't see them scoring enough to beat a Texas, Ohio State, or Oregon.

Boise State is a cool story and they're giant killing underdogs who won't be intimidated or caught up in the moment. At the same time, there's a pretty big line favoring Penn State (-11), especially with a low over/under on total points (52). Penn State has a cross-country flight and their 7:30 ET kickoff will be 4:30 local time. I'd think they've been there for a few days at this point, but transnational flights have a pretty pronounced effect on NFL results (and the Big Ten expansion has shown that the collegiate game is following the same trend(s). I think they'd need to both get up early and get at least one defensive or special teams touchdown to really have a shot.

The above aside, I think Penn State will ultimately put away the Broncos. Low-key, this seems like a really nice dark horse to come out of the bottom bracket. Their biggest issue seems to be playing in shoot-outs or from behind. Boise isn't built to test them like that; re-read what I wrote about Notre Dame if you think they are; Georgia might be able to out-score them if they control the line of scrimmage and run the ball down their throat, but I think it's a big ask of their back-up that's known as more of a scrambler to execute a game plan designed around getting into an up-tempo game with them.


Predictions:
Oregon 28, Ohio State 27
Texas 35, Arizona State 17
Penn State 31, Boise State 21
Georgia 24, Notre Dame 13

Texas 30, Oregon 28
Penn State 21, Georgia 17

Texas 42, Penn State 30


The only things that would surprise me:
- Arizona State winning a game.
- Boise State winning more than one game.
- Notre Dame not ultimately being proven to be a fraud... again.
- Someone other than Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, or Georgia (with an electric back-up QB) winning the CFP.

Fun Fact:
If Oregon wins the natty, they'll be the first team to win their first NCAA Football Championship since Florida in 1996.

Very well said CJ.  You nailed it about the Georgia backup qb,  about him getting exposed as the playoffs go on.  There likely wasn't much film on him going into the SEC championship.  You also reminded me of some of Georgia's not so great performances this year.  Like when they only beat Kentucky by one.  If that team shows up in the playoffs,  Georgia will likely be in for a long night. 

For Notre Dame,  I'd say there probably couldn't be a better time for them to face Georgia,  given the qb situation.  Which idk if Notre Dame has faced a defense anything close to what Georgia has.  Will make for a interesting game. 

If Oregon beats Ohio St I guess they'd want to see Georgia over Texas,  in terms of facing SEC teams.  Which I can't remember exactly how the bracket is set up. 

The way the bracket has fallen so far,  it's almost like Penn St has hit the lottery. Them and Texas both. I know nothing really about Arizona St.  I'd be shocked if they beat Texas.  Boise has a great RB,  he was runner up in the Heisman contest.  I'd still kinda be shocked if they beat Penn State.  Although it's not out of the realms of possibility.  I can definitely see Boise winning a game before Arizona State.

[King Kong]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

I wouldn't mind at all to see Oregon win it.  They've gotten to the title game,  can't remember the year,  but fell just a little short.  I'd be okay seeing them win the title.

[Westside]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

I wouldn't mind at all to see Oregon win it.  They've gotten to the title game,  can't remember the year,  but fell just a little short.  I'd be okay seeing them win the title.

I'm a Buckeye fan.  I feel that they have the most talent and maybe the Michigan loss was a blessing in disguise.  GO BUCKEYES!!!!!

[Van Hagar]

Hate to go against you Westy, but I hope Cryin’ Day and the Suckeyes lose to Oregon 106-2.

[Westside]

Hate to go against you Westy, but I hope Cryin’ Day and the Suckeyes lose to Oregon 106-2.

Before long, I am going to bring you to the dark side.  You will join the Buckeye fan base.

[King Kong]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

I wouldn't mind at all to see Oregon win it.  They've gotten to the title game,  can't remember the year,  but fell just a little short.  I'd be okay seeing them win the title.

I'm a Buckeye fan.  I feel that they have the most talent and maybe the Michigan loss was a blessing in disguise.  GO BUCKEYES!!!!!

I'd love to watch a game at the horse shoe some time.  I've got some family that don't live to far from Columbus,  I've mentioned going to a game there to them before.  I've been by the stadium before but never stopped there.  I got a brother in law who used to live up there.  I can't remember if he worked for the university or if his company was contracted to do work there.  He was a mechanic.  He's worked on equipment inside the stadium right by the field! Not during a game,  but that was a pretty cool experience. 

The way Ohio State performed vs Tennessee,  they've gotta be one of the hottest teams in the country right now,  if not the hottest.  I'm not a OSU fan but have a have a great deal of respect for their history and tradition.

[plantmanky]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

I wouldn't mind at all to see Oregon win it.  They've gotten to the title game,  can't remember the year,  but fell just a little short.  I'd be okay seeing them win the title.

I'm a Buckeye fan.  I feel that they have the most talent and maybe the Michigan loss was a blessing in disguise.  GO BUCKEYES!!!!!

Explains so much.

[Westside]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

I wouldn't mind at all to see Oregon win it.  They've gotten to the title game,  can't remember the year,  but fell just a little short.  I'd be okay seeing them win the title.

I'm a Buckeye fan.  I feel that they have the most talent and maybe the Michigan loss was a blessing in disguise.  GO BUCKEYES!!!!!

Explains so much.

Granny Bear summed you up perfectly on another troll post you made.  LOL!!!

[jetpilot]

I'll go way out on a limb and take Notre Dame. They are very good.

[plantmanky]

I'll go way out on a limb and take Notre Dame. They are very good.

The Chaos created by Notre Dame winning it all, in the first year no less, would be outstanding.

Who needs conferences?

Im all about chaos.

[Granny Bear]

I think Oregon will take it.
That's what my head says; not what my heart says.

Boy, how wrong could I have been!!!!!

And how about Arizona State.  God love them.  I was rooting for them before that game was over!

[Van Hagar]

Arizona St. probably wins that game in regulation if not for the worst no-call on a targeting I’ve ever seen. And it was reviewed and still not called! If that play wasn’t targeting, then they need to get rid of the rule.

[Granny Bear]

Oh, it was definitely targeting!!! I'm blind, and even I could see that.

[Westside]

Arizona St. probably wins that game in regulation if not for the worst no-call on a targeting I’ve ever seen.  And it was reviewed and still not called!  If that play wasn’t targeting, then they need to get rid of the rule.

Oh, it was definitely targeting!!!  I'm blind, and even I could see that.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy_Mi5-fYD...FsbA%3D%3D

I like Arizona St., but I don't have a problem with the non-call.  The receiver was defenseless, but I don't feel the defender led with the crown of his helmet.  The call could have gone either way, and I would have been fine with it.

[-STAT-]

I'm the same way on the targeting, initially it looked like it, but replay showed he didn't fully lead with the crown of his helmet, from my understanding that's what they always look for, I also understand that it could've gone either way.

As for who wins it all? I'd love to say Penn St, but they've had a cakewalk to the semi-finals, whomever they play whether it be ND/UGA, we will see what they're really made of. Honestly didn't think OSU would be able to contain the speed and explosiveness of Oregon, but they really held that offense in check. OSU has an elite defense, as much as I hate to say it, I can see them doing the same thing to Texas. I think the winner of that game will be your eventual Champion. Can't really say who wins it tho, that'll be a toss-up. I think ND beats Georgia, especially with the QB situation UGA has, but the Bulldogs just have a ton of athletes on the field, the best matchup will be in the trenches, ND has a great offensive line, will be interesting to see if they contain that athletic D line of Georgia.

Also have to wonder what both teams psyches will be like after the game being delayed a day after the deadly attacks in New Orleans, I understand that both teams have to prepare for this game, but I'm sure the tragedy that occurred will be in the back of their minds, along with the coaches as well. Should make for an interesting game, and a very tense environment.

With all that being said, I still think the eventual champion will come from the UT/OSU game. I'll probably be wrong with all this :P , but those are my thoughts on it all.

[King Kong]

Arizona St leading up to this year,  only had like three or four wins each of the previous two seasons.  Picked to finish last in the conference this year.  Made the college playoff and received a first round bye.  Arizona St was way better than advertised.  Much respect to them. 

I too was pulling for Arizona St to win this game.  Man they put up a fight.  Hopefully they can continue to build off of this season and get back to the playoffs. 

Ohio St is the best looking team I've seen in the playoffs.  Them and Penn State so far.  Championship game could very well be a big 10 showdown.

[plantmanky]

Not targeting they got that call right.

Oregone laid a big duck egg.


Now I have to route for Notre Dame, makes me wanna puke.

[King Kong]

Notre Dame moves onto the semi's.  I didn't think Notre Dame had been receiving much attention,  not being talked about as much as other teams.  I didn't think they'd beat Georgia though.  Hat's off to Notre Dame on the win.  It'll be a good one vs Penn St. 

If I'm not mistaken,  all four teams that received first round byes,  are out of the playoffs,  without getting a single win. 

Maybe taking a extra week off does more harm than good.  Also there are no conference champions left.

[Westside]

The Ohio state vs Texas game should be a dandy.  It will be two rosters full of future NFL players going against each other.  I think it could go either way.

The Penn State vs Notre Dame should also be a good one.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm starting to think that the field expands to 14 before 16. If it doesn't, then SEC and eventually Big Ten teams will probably de-emphasize their conference championship or the path you take to get there.

Here's what the conference championship games did for each of the SEC & Big Ten teams:

Georgia took a 2nd loss to Texas and lost their starting QB in the process. Not saying they'd have beaten Notre Dame with him, but you'd think they'd be able to score more than 10 points.

Texas took another loss to Georgia. Their kicker missed 42 and 51 yard field goals and is 4 of 6 since missing a 48 yarder and a 38 yard walk-off against ASU. The Georgia loss gave them a game with #12 Clemson and a favorable 2nd round match-up against Arizona State, so it's not as if it really destroyed them. Given that the semifinal is in Dallas, it honestly worked out pretty well for them getting the Oregon-Ohio State winner there.

Oregon held on to the #1 overall seed by beating Penn State. They were rewarded with a bye and the winner of #8 Ohio State and #9 Tennessee. With a loss to Penn State, Oregon is #5 and gets Clemson coming cross-country to them, then Arizona State in the Rose Bowl. That’s more like the path they should have had at #1.

Penn State is probably the conference championship game participant who most benefited from their game. Playing close to undefeated Oregon probably gave them some confidence and ensured that they’d be no lower than #8.


Obvious beneficiaries of their conference championship games are: teams who needed a win to be in (Clemson, Arizona State); teams who would have been further exposed (Indiana); underdogs who possibly couldn't afford another loss (Tennessee).

Ohio State is so hot right now, I don’t think you can argue. They avoided a rematch with Oregon and seem to have had enough to time to regroup from a bad loss to a rival.


Why I think all this matters and where I see this going:

The SEC was in a tough spot this year with scheduling this season and is probably going to be one of the loudest voices for changing the seeding format or bracket. The best argument for revamping seeding will be that none of the top 4 seeds advanced past the first round.

This year, the committee seemed to reward the “most deserving” teams, but those and the “best” teams are two very different things. If we’re looking at the best teams, OSU, Tennessee, Indiana, and SMU are not seeded #8-11, respectively. SEC fans will look back and laugh if Texas beats Ohio State then stomps Notre Dame in the final, but if the Big Ten continues to have success, the calls for their teams being “deserving” are only going to grow louder.

The most likely quick fixes are allowing only one automatic first round bye for the non-SEC/Big Ten teams, an NFL-style re-seeding of the playoff field after each week, and/or also having the 2nd Round played on-campus.


Where this gets really interesting is if the bracket/seeding format mostly remains as-is. If so, the SEC is going to have to have to claw for everything they get for awhile. SEC teams beat up on one another all year-- the conference is just deeper than the Big Ten (even if you remove their two extra bottom feeders padding records). With eight conference games, unless you want to have a “top eight plays the bottom eight” type schedule that’s basically gerrymandered, it’s impossible for teams not to have a loaded schedule. It’s also a myth that SEC teams don’t play anyone in non-conference games***. As weak as Big Ten teams seem to think SEC teams have become, I doubt any are going to be running away from their cushy schedules and toward the possibility of a loss.


If things stay put, the SEC likely either:

1.) pivots and tries to schedule as many cupcakes from the ACC and Big XII as possible and alters their rule about having to play at least one out-of-conference game against select teams; or

2.) looks to expand by adding two more teams, ultimately having at least two divisions so that there’s more parity in scheduling.

One of those things is much less salacious than the other. The first depends on those teams actually wanting to schedule SEC opponents and the networks being willing to give up some big games in Weeks 1-3.


There’s a possibility that the SEC goes to four divisions, with each division having a winner and common non-divisional opponents in an NFL format. What better way to make sure there are four SEC teams in than just having each as the winner of their division, with head-to-head records letting two teams from the same division get in to the exclusion of another divisional champion?


If expansion, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina State, and Virginia Tech are all strong possibilities, as Sankey has made it known that he wants the SEC to remain in contiguous states. By that point, the Big Ten has absorbed anyone who mattered in the Pac 12 and likely adds the academic schools from the ACC (UNC, Duke, and Virginia) and the SEC has taken the best of what was once the Big XII and the best to middle of the ACC, meaning it’s no longer “SEC East” and “SEC West”, it’s “SEC/Big XII” and “SEC/ACC”.

I could see the SEC being hesitant to give Florida State and Miami a lifeline—Florida would be against either, there are marginal returns on adding those markets, and adding another program good enough to just beat up on everyone else before their non-playoff team’s players opt out of bowl games (that they lose) only worsens the situation that got us here. Also, if only one of the two is added, the other likely pushes for the Big Ten or Big XII, and letting either get too big and expansive for their own good is a winning strategy in the end.


What’s most likely in the end is a combination of all of those. Whether it’s paying players, absorbing other leagues (AFL merger), only giving the top team from each conference a bye, divisional scheduling and seeding, re-seeding the playoff brackets each round, or giving home field advantage deep into the playoffs, you’ll notice that most of everything basically ends up being a watered down version of “let’s do what the NFL does”.



***SEC non-conference games this season:

Vs. Playoff Teams:
Georgia vs. Clemson, Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, S. Carolina @ Clemson, Miss. State @ Arizona State

Vs. Bowl Eligible Teams:
Texas @ Michigan, LSU vs. USC, Miami vs. Florida, Oklahoma vs. Tulane

“Looked Okay When It Was Scheduled Years Ago”:
Alabama @ Wisconsin, Oklahoma vs. Houston, Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State, LSU vs. UCLA

[Granny Bear]

Wow!! Concise and extremely thorough!!
as usual

[-STAT-]

In terms of historical & traditional powers, this is definitely the CFP Semi-finals you'd want to see. Should be 2 great games between 4 great teams.

CFP, just like the BCS will always be flawed, no matter if you have computers, or the human element determining who makes it, fan bases, coaches, and analysts alike are always going to find something to complain about, now you add conference commissioners like CJ said by deemphasizing their respective conference championships.

Completely unrelated, but I'll never forget when Auburn played FSU in the 2013 National Championship, the final of the BCS era. Legendary Brent Musberger opened by saying "a perfect ending to an imperfect system"