[Hoot Gibson]

Polls serve a useful purpose for candidates, although the polls that the two parties pay for often show much different results than the publicly available polls. Candidates' internal polls in major elections have become an absolute necessity. If one party decided not to plan their campaign according to poll numbers, they would have little chance of winning a presidential election. It would be like going into a saloon full of armed gunslingers after checking your own gun outside the door.

According to the polls, Trump has about a 50-50 chance of winning the popular vote nationally next week. If he does, then the odds of him also winning the Electoral College vote will be overwhelming. It is mathematically possible for Trump to win the popular vote but lose the election, but it is very unlikely that will happen.

The problem with some public polls is that they do not always make a good effort to poll a random sample of likely voters and they also do not always poll enough people for the results to have a small margin of error. Polls of registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) are almost meaningless, IMO.

Also, I believe that the last polls taken by the major pollsters before the election tend to be the most accurate ones because accuracy is what attracts new business for the next election cycle.

[Old School Hound]

The Maga crowd have no problem in suppressing the vote.  A lot of the Maga crowd yearns for the good old days of the 60's, back when there were such things as Poll Taxes and Vouchers for certain Americans to be able to vote.

I yearn for a lot of things from the 60s.  Gas prices,  food prices,  price of building materials,  good job opportunities,  you knew your neighbors and family.  Some good times right there 

---

If the polls are showing Trump behind,  then I like his chances.  I don't like the polls nor do I trust them.  To me the polls,  surveys,  are a waste of time. Especially when it comes to politics. 

I'm going to touch on something Maga Nuts,  said earlier,  I agree with.  If most of the country's population voted,  Republicans may never win again.  That's going by the popular vote.  Like it or hate it,  the electoral college, is the only thing that gives us a shot.  Way more people are registered democrats.  I honestly believe,  if we ever do away with the electoral college,  us Republicans are screwed!

Democrats also register dead people to vote!  Along with alien's from other planets,  big foots,  birds,  deer, turkey,  squirrel,  grasshoppers,  probably why some of us had a yellow jacket apocalypse this year! Dems felt like they needed the extra votes!

I was just goofing off on that last paragraph 

^^^
I hope so.     I also hope you are against any party's attempt to suppress the vote of any eligible voting demographic.  Every person ellgible to vote should be able to do so without any hindrance from any group or party. Republicans want a low turnout among non-MAGAs. Dems want a high turnout. It's all about turn out, at this point. If enough non-MAGAs turn out, Harris will win. If they stay home, she loses.

[SEKYFAN]

Polls serve a useful purpose for candidates, although the polls that the two parties pay for often show much different results than the publicly available polls. Candidates' internal polls in major elections have become an absolute necessity. If one party decided not to plan their campaign according to poll numbers, they would have little chance of winning a presidential election. It would be like going into a saloon full of armed gunslingers after checking your own gun outside the door.

According to the polls, Trump has about a 50-50 chance of winning the popular vote nationally next week. If he does, then the odds of him also winning the Electoral College vote will be overwhelming. It is mathematically possible for Trump to win the popular vote but lose the election, but it is very unlikely that will happen.

The problem with some public polls is that they do not always make a good effort to poll a random sample of likely voters and they also do not always poll enough people for the results to have a small margin of error. Polls of registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) are almost meaningless, IMO.

Also, I believe that the last polls taken by the major pollsters before the election tend to be the most accurate ones because accuracy is what attracts new business for the next election cycle.

I agree, polls serve a purpose, but I don't have a lot of faith in them.  If Trump is close on the popular vote ,he will more than likely win the election.  All ribbing aside, I believe this one could go either way and possibly not even that close.  If Harris does win, I hope it's not close for obvious reasons.

[Hoot Gibson]

Polls serve a useful purpose for candidates, although the polls that the two parties pay for often show much different results than the publicly available polls. Candidates' internal polls in major elections have become an absolute necessity. If one party decided not to plan their campaign according to poll numbers, they would have little chance of winning a presidential election. It would be like going into a saloon full of armed gunslingers after checking your own gun outside the door.

According to the polls, Trump has about a 50-50 chance of winning the popular vote nationally next week. If he does, then the odds of him also winning the Electoral College vote will be overwhelming. It is mathematically possible for Trump to win the popular vote but lose the election, but it is very unlikely that will happen.

The problem with some public polls is that they do not always make a good effort to poll a random sample of likely voters and they also do not always poll enough people for the results to have a small margin of error. Polls of registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) are almost meaningless, IMO.

Also, I believe that the last polls taken by the major pollsters before the election tend to be the most accurate ones because accuracy is what attracts new business for the next election cycle.

I agree, polls serve a purpose, but I don't have a lot of faith in them.  If Trump is close on the popular vote ,he will more than likely win the election.  All ribbing aside, I believe this one could go either way and possibly not even that close.  If Harris does win, I hope it's not close for obvious reasons.

Nobody should have much faith in public polls, but candidates rarely share the results of the polls for which their campaigns pay.

The results of the last polls taken by the major pollsters immediately before the election will be a pretty good indication of how the election will go. If the poll results are within the margins of error, then they are not wrong, no matter which candidate wins, unless the winning margin is larger than the margin of error. So, if Trump leads the polls in every battleground state by 1 percent, but loses every one of the states by a couple percent, the polls will have been correct.

Where things get really complicated is when you start averaging the results of multiple polls. That is why I believe that the polls are looking very good for Trump at this time. If you are leading state by an average margin of 2 percent for three polls having identical margins of error, then that is a pretty solid lead, assuming that respondents were polled at random.

[King Kong]

The Maga crowd have no problem in suppressing the vote.  A lot of the Maga crowd yearns for the good old days of the 60's, back when there were such things as Poll Taxes and Vouchers for certain Americans to be able to vote.

I yearn for a lot of things from the 60s.  Gas prices,  food prices,  price of building materials,  good job opportunities,  you knew your neighbors and family.  Some good times right there 

---

If the polls are showing Trump behind,  then I like his chances.  I don't like the polls nor do I trust them.  To me the polls,  surveys,  are a waste of time. Especially when it comes to politics. 

I'm going to touch on something Maga Nuts,  said earlier,  I agree with.  If most of the country's population voted,  Republicans may never win again.  That's going by the popular vote.  Like it or hate it,  the electoral college, is the only thing that gives us a shot.  Way more people are registered democrats.  I honestly believe,  if we ever do away with the electoral college,  us Republicans are screwed!

Democrats also register dead people to vote!  Along with alien's from other planets,  big foots,  birds,  deer, turkey,  squirrel,  grasshoppers,  probably why some of us had a yellow jacket apocalypse this year! Dems felt like they needed the extra votes!

I was just goofing off on that last paragraph 

^^^
I hope so.     I also hope you are against any party's attempt to suppress the vote of any eligible voting demographic.  Every person ellgible to vote should be able to do so without any hindrance from any group or party. Republicans want a low turnout among non-MAGAs. Dems want a high turnout. It's all about turn out, at this point. If enough non-MAGAs turn out, Harris will win. If they stay home, she loses.

Agreed, that every eligible citizen has a right to vote,  and they should. 

Here's a piece of advice I received at a young age about voting. 
Let's go back a ways in time.  Imagine a young Kong sitting at the breakfast table.  Getting ready to vote in my first election.  I was 18 years old,  filled with anticipation. 

I was sipping on my oj.  Mother Kong was fixing bacon and eggs.  Father Kong sitting in his spot at the table,  sipping on coffee.  

Father Kong took a slurp of coffee.  He then turns and looks at me.  He says,  "Boy,  you're voting in your first election today.  I'm going to tell you something.  It's your right to vote however you see fit.  Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.  Doesn't matter if you vote the same as me, it's your choice and your right.  It's best to keep your choices to yourself."

My parents are in their 80s now.  That last line that dad said there,  about keeping to yourself about who your voting for.  He was spot on about that! He was spot on about the whole thing. 

Everyone that's eligible to vote,  it's there right.  Vote however you see fit.  Doesn't matter to me if we vote the same or not.  If I see ya broken down with a flat tire,  I'll stop and offer help.  Even if we vote different,  I'll still stop.  I won't be like,  well you voted for this candidate,  I'm outta here,  Good luck fixing this on your own!   I wouldn't do anyone like that,  most people wouldn't. 

I understand the polls importance.  I just don't pay any attention to them.  For one,  I don't understand how they can survey a group of people.  Then use that to predict how millions will vote.  Which I barely passed math in both highschool and college.  Believe both places passed me,  just to finally be rid of me 

Guy's I'm not a very serious person.  Many of my posts are for the purpose of laughter 

[Hoot Gibson]

After Joe Biden called Trump supporters "garbage," Trump delivered a campaign speech wearing a yellow reflective vest, while sitting in the passenger seat of a white garbage truck with his name printed on the door. 

I wonder who Joe Biden voted for? 

[Old School Hound]

Lots of great, great news for Democrats and our country released today:

More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans

Dems 10% more excited to pull the lever for Harris than Republicans for Harris or Trump.

Too, a Fox News poll seemingly insists the election is close. HOWEVER, if you drill down to the actual assumptions they make of the voting electorate, they're showing:

- one in four non-whites who voted in NC in 2020 to not vote in 2024. If POC vote in the same numbers they did in 2020, Harris is up +8.
- white people in NC to prefer Trump 60-40. In 2020, they preferred Trump 66-33. If that's the case (and they vote in the same percentage), Harris would be +10(!)
- Fox News' poll assumed an 80-20 POC split in NC in order to get to a relatively even split of votes. That hasn't happened since Black people were refused the right to vote.

- In PA, they have white people voting at 86% of the total PA population. That's five percent more than in 2020.
- They also showed 20% of Blacks favoring Trump. The last time that Blacks favored Republicans in a national election by that much? Suffice to say, it's been a long, long time. (1972, at least.)

Also, Politico's examination of PA's votes so far indicate that a third of all votes came from Democratic women who did not vote in 2020.




Also, Professor Lichtman, the guy who is uncanny at picking the winners of Presidential elections based on his 13 keys, a model that has picked winners dating back to 1860, is confident in a Harris win.  

It's looking damn good, folks!

[SEKYFAN]

Lots of great, great news for Democrats and our country released today:

More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans

Dems 10% more excited to pull the lever for Harris than Republicans for Harris or Trump.

Too, a Fox News poll seemingly insists the election is close. HOWEVER, if you drill down to the actual assumptions they make of the voting electorate, they're showing:

- one in four non-whites who voted in NC in 2020 to not vote in 2024. If POC vote in the same numbers they did in 2020, Harris is up +8.
- white people in NC to prefer Trump 60-40. In 2020, they preferred Trump 66-33. If that's the case (and they vote in the same percentage), Harris would be +10(!)
- Fox News' poll assumed an 80-20 POC split in NC in order to get to a relatively even split of votes. That hasn't happened since Black people were refused the right to vote.

- In PA, they have white people voting at 86% of the total PA population. That's five percent more than in 2020.
- They also showed 20% of Blacks favoring Trump. The last time that Blacks favored Republicans in a national election by that much? Suffice to say, it's been a long, long time. (1972, at least.)

Also, Politico's examination of PA's votes so far indicate that a third of all votes came from Democratic women who did not vote in 2020.




Also, Professor Lichtman, the guy who is uncanny at picking the winners of Presidential elections based on his 13 keys, a model that has picked winners dating back to 1860, is confident in a Harris win.  

It's looking damn good, folks!

Until Jan 6th when the seditionists strike again.


https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/maga-activists-preparing-undermine-election-if-trump-loses/index.html

[Maga Nuts]

Lots of great, great news for Democrats and our country released today:

More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans

Dems 10% more excited to pull the lever for Harris than Republicans for Harris or Trump.

Too, a Fox News poll seemingly insists the election is close. HOWEVER, if you drill down to the actual assumptions they make of the voting electorate, they're showing:

- one in four non-whites who voted in NC in 2020 to not vote in 2024. If POC vote in the same numbers they did in 2020, Harris is up +8.
- white people in NC to prefer Trump 60-40. In 2020, they preferred Trump 66-33. If that's the case (and they vote in the same percentage), Harris would be +10(!)
- Fox News' poll assumed an 80-20 POC split in NC in order to get to a relatively even split of votes. That hasn't happened since Black people were refused the right to vote.

- In PA, they have white people voting at 86% of the total PA population. That's five percent more than in 2020.
- They also showed 20% of Blacks favoring Trump. The last time that Blacks favored Republicans in a national election by that much? Suffice to say, it's been a long, long time. (1972, at least.)

Also, Politico's examination of PA's votes so far indicate that a third of all votes came from Democratic women who did not vote in 2020.




Also, Professor Lichtman, the guy who is uncanny at picking the winners of Presidential elections based on his 13 keys, a model that has picked winners dating back to 1860, is confident in a Harris win.  

It's looking damn good, folks!

Until Jan 6th when the seditionists strike again.


https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/maga-activists-preparing-undermine-election-if-trump-loses/index.html

Big difference this time around there won't be a sitting President cheering them on like the last time.

---

After Joe Biden called Trump supporters "garbage," Trump delivered a campaign speech wearing a yellow reflective vest, while sitting in the passenger seat of a white garbage truck with his name printed on the door. 

I wonder who Joe Biden voted for? 

Biden not running this time try to keep up.

[SEKYFAN]

Trump is now claiming he has a huge lead and that the only way he can lose is by voter fraud.  He and his followers and trying to plant seeds just in case they lose even as his inside pollsters are worrying about what they are seeing.  I guess he is listening to Sidney Powell again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...245a&ei=80

[Maga Nuts]

Trump is now claiming he has a huge lead and that the only way he can lose is by voter fraud.  He and his followers and trying to plant seeds just in case they lose even as his inside pollsters are worrying about what they are seeing.  I guess he is listening to Sidney Powell again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...245a&ei=80

Time to get the Cyber Ninja's out of retirement. Need donations bad to fight the steal.
I believe the Kraken will sit this one out. But they are a couple of BGR experts who are on standby.

[Old School Hound]

Trump is now claiming he has a huge lead and that the only way he can lose is by voter fraud.  He and his followers and trying to plant seeds just in case they lose even as his inside pollsters are worrying about what they are seeing.  I guess he is listening to Sidney Powell again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...245a&ei=80

Time to get the Cyber Ninja's out of retirement. Need donations bad to fight the steal.
I believe the Kraken will sit this one out. But they are a couple of BGR experts who are on standby.

I've been doing this a long time.  I'm confident that the turnout will be extraordinary, especially some demographics that will benefit Harris. MAGA Nuts, trust Old School on this one. Harris will be the next POTUS.

[jetpilot]

^^^Since you're a communist/socialist please bring a huge sack of other people's money to the polling place. Anyone who has ever signed the front of a paycheck wouldn't have her anywhere near their business.

[Old School Hound]

^^^Since you're a communist/socialist please bring a huge sack of other people's money to the polling place. Anyone who has ever signed the front of a paycheck wouldn't have her anywhere near their business.

A lot of young female voters, and voters who are voting for the first time are gonna help push her over the top. Lichtman is uncanny. He's thoroughly confident in a Harris win. I have already bought lots of wine and cheese for election night. Will be celebrating all night long. Old School is gonna be one happy and hilarious poster on election night.  I know you and Hoot want to make this liberal cry again but I'll be happy and very drunk come late Tuesday night. I will be posting on here all evening long. It will be must reading.

---

The ringed planet has gotten into the act and is forecasting a catastrophic loss for Donald Trump. I love you , Saturn!!!

[Hoot Gibson]

I am really here for the horse race. It is a waste of my time trying to persuade anybody not to vote for an empty pantsuit this close to the election.

OSH, I have to give you credit for putting a positive spin on a poll that apparently lacks the credibility to rate a place in the RCP averages.

Kamala drastically cut her campaign ad buys in North Carolina a few days ago. I to not believe that she did so because she thinks that she has the state locked up.

You're insistence that Kamala Harris is going to carry Arab-Americans, Asian-Americans, Latinos, and Black Americans at the same rate as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton did contradicts every poll that I have seen. It also contradicts the fact that black conservative social media content creators has exploded since Biden and Harris took office. I am probably subscribed to as many black conservative Youtube political channels and similar white channels. Those channels were far less numerous in 2020. With subscriptions to each channel numbering 400,000+, they will have an impact in this election.

I just watched J.D. Vance's interview with Joe Rogan. You can't buy effective publicity that a 3-hour+ interview with Rogan delivers for free. With a minimum of 30 to 40 million viewers for each interview, Trump will pick up votes across a broad demographic spectrum. If you think that Vance and Trump were "speaking to the choir," then you are wrong. Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2020. He has viewers, mostly male, across the political spectrum because he interviews people that he finds interesting and that he thinks will draw large audiences. Most are not politicians.

It is certainly possible that Harris will upset Trump in the election, but both the polls and the betting odds trends currently favor Trump. The more voters see of Harris, the less favorably they view her. Democrats should have pulled the bait and switch much later in the campaign.

[Ring'Em Up]

https://www.kidspickthepresident.com/#meet

[jetpilot]

^^^Since you're a communist/socialist please bring a huge sack of other people's money to the polling place. Anyone who has ever signed the front of a paycheck wouldn't have her anywhere near their business.

A lot of young female voters, and voters who are voting for the first time are gonna help push her over the top. Lichtman is uncanny. He's thoroughly confident in a Harris win. I have already bought lots of wine and cheese for election night. Will be celebrating all night long. Old School is gonna be one happy and hilarious poster on election night.  I know you and Hoot want to make this liberal cry again but I'll be happy  and very drunk come late Tuesday night. I will be posting on here all evening long. It will be must reading.

---

The ringed planet has gotten into the act and is forecasting a catastrophic loss for Donald Trump. I love you , Saturn!!!

HAhahahahah
1. Lichtman is bat shit crazy, I understand him being your guru. He cancelled his subscription to Washington Post because they refused to endorse Harris 
2. New female voters lol. Dems running out of low information voters
3. Saturn lol. Watch out for the Klingons around Uranus lol
4. Don't worry, Trump won't revoke your free government cheese

Harris Emhoff Walz and his crazy ass wife are the creepiest 4 people ever running in any race ever

[Old School Hound]

I am really here for the horse race. It is a waste of my time trying to persuade anybody not to vote for an empty pantsuit this close to the election.

OSH, I have to give you credit for putting a positive spin on a poll that apparently lacks the credibility to rate a place in the RCP averages.

Kamala drastically cut her campaign ad buys in North Carolina a few days ago. I to not believe that she did so because she thinks that she has the state locked up.

You're insistence that Kamala Harris is going to carry Arab-Americans, Asian-Americans, Latinos, and Black Americans at the same rate as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton did contradicts every poll that I have seen. It also contradicts the fact that black conservative social media content creators has exploded since Biden and Harris took office. I am probably subscribed to as many black conservative Youtube political channels and similar white channels. Those channels were far less numerous in 2020. With subscriptions to each channel numbering 400,000+, they will have an impact in this election.

I just watched J.D. Vance's interview with Joe Rogan. You can't buy effective publicity that a 3-hour+ interview with Rogan delivers for free. With a minimum of 30 to 40 million viewers for each interview, Trump will pick up votes across a broad demographic spectrum. If you think that Vance and Trump were "speaking to the choir," then you are wrong. Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2020. He has viewers, mostly male, across the political spectrum because he interviews people that he finds interesting and that he thinks will draw large audiences. Most are not politicians.

It is certainly possible that Harris will upset Trump in the election, but both the polls and the betting odds trends currently favor Trump. The more voters see of Harris, the less favorably they view her. Democrats should have pulled the bait and switch much later in the campaign.

Harris winning will be no more of an upset than Boyle beating Johnson Central or Corbin. If you look in the right place, you'll see Harris is a considerable favorite. Allan Lichtman's methodology takes 13 keys into consideration. These 13 factors are what drives election results, NOT polls. It takes the governing party(the Dems in this case) losing six keys to lose the election. Lichtman has Harris losing just four keys. It's not really a close call. These keys have accurately predicted every election since 1860( Lichtman's keys predicted 2000 Gore/Bush in favor of Gore. Turns out, Lichtman and his keys  was right. The SC handed the election, wrongly, to Bush. Tens of thousands of legitimate ballots cast for Gore were tossed out). So, his method is without a legitimate blemish.

Harris will be the next president. It's time for a female president. Men have screwed things up for way too long, now,

[Hoot Gibson]

Win or lose, Trump is running a very strong campaign, and his top surrogates are the best that I can remember in any campaign. Vivek Ramaswamy, J.D. Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard all are delivering top-notch interviews and stump speeches. I will not hesitate to vote for any of them when their time to run comes. Finding room in the campaign for RFK, Jr. and Elon Musk were also great strategic moves by Trump.

If Trump continues to attract and retain similar top talent after he wins the election, the next four years could be something special.

[jetpilot]

I am really here for the horse race. It is a waste of my time trying to persuade anybody not to vote for an empty pantsuit this close to the election.

OSH, I have to give you credit for putting a positive spin on a poll that apparently lacks the credibility to rate a place in the RCP averages.

Kamala drastically cut her campaign ad buys in North Carolina a few days ago. I to not believe that she did so because she thinks that she has the state locked up.

You're insistence that Kamala Harris is going to carry Arab-Americans, Asian-Americans, Latinos, and Black Americans at the same rate as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton did contradicts every poll that I have seen. It also contradicts the fact that black conservative social media content creators has exploded since Biden and Harris took office. I am probably subscribed to as many black conservative Youtube political channels and similar white channels. Those channels were far less numerous in 2020. With subscriptions to each channel numbering 400,000+, they will have an impact in this election.

I just watched J.D. Vance's interview with Joe Rogan. You can't buy effective publicity that a 3-hour+ interview with Rogan delivers for free. With a minimum of 30 to 40 million viewers for each interview, Trump will pick up votes across a broad demographic spectrum. If you think that Vance and Trump were "speaking to the choir," then you are wrong. Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2020. He has viewers, mostly male, across the political spectrum because he interviews people that he finds interesting and that he thinks will draw large audiences. Most are not politicians.

It is certainly possible that Harris will upset Trump in the election, but both the polls and the betting odds trends currently favor Trump. The more voters see of Harris, the less favorably they view her. Democrats should have pulled the bait and switch much later in the campaign.

Harris winning will be no more of an upset than Boyle beating Johnson Central or Corbin. If you look in the right place, you'll see Harris is a considerable favorite. Allan Lichtman's methodology takes 13 keys into consideration. These 13 factors are what drives election results, NOT polls. It takes the governing party(the Dems in this case) losing six keys to lose the election. Lichtman has Harris losing just four keys. It's not really a close call. These keys have accurately predicted every election since 1860( Lichtman's keys predicted 2000 Gore/Bush in favor of Gore. Turns out, Lichtman and his keys  was right. The SC handed the election, wrongly, to Bush. Tens of thousands of legitimate ballots cast for Gore were tossed out). So, his method is without a legitimate blemish.

Harris will be the next president. It's time for a female president. Men have screwed things up for way too long, now,

Voting for someone based on their gender is weak sexist desperate and dumb

[Old School Hound]

Lichtman's map reads:

Harris - 302
Trump - 236


He has Harris winning NC and GA, as well as sweeping the Big Blue Wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If Trump gets both NC and GA but Harris holds PA, Lichtman's numbers would be 270-268 for Harris. The 1 EC vote in the Nebraska district Dems are expected to get would keep it from being the nightmare scenario of 269-269. That would be constitutional crisis territory. But the Dems aren't losing their Nebraska district.

[Old School Hound]

If you are wavering on your vote, BGR, consider:

[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQFOPFW0AA4...=4096x4096]

---

---

For those who don't want to watch the above video about early voting, here's the condensed version:




According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)


Thanks, BZ.

---

Summary of the video I posted:


"According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)

Early Republican voters in PA also voted early in GOP nomination process-- and were largely Nikki Haley voters. Looks like they're going for Harris. Haley NC also largely voted early. "Some of that surge... appears to be Republicans voting for Harris, not Trump." Rosenberg points to Harris spending tons of time working on crossover voting from Republican voters. If she continues to do it, chances are there's a reason.

"There really isn't any good data for the Republican Party right now," said Rosenberg. Harris up 2.5 in independent polls, while Trump is up +1 in GOP/ Red Wave polls.

Bonier says women vote more often before Election Day. That said, if Republicans are indeed voting for Trump early, you'd expect the genders to get closer. They're not. Since Dobbs, younger women and women over the age of 65 are most committed-- and most likely to vote. Expect to see a large turnout operation for young Harris women, as they haven't yet been seen in the numbers. But they're likely coming in droves.

Rosenberg cautions us not to assume Trump overperforms all public polls. 2016 was changed by Comey; before he stuck his thumb on the scale, polling seemed to be right. (Not sure how he came to that conclusion. Seems questionable, at best.) Since Dobbs, there's been a consistent Dem overperformance from polls. Outer edge of Trump coalition struggling to vote for him. The non-MAGA can't quite pull that lever. (Similar to fascists in Europe, fwiw.) Internal data shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump's ugliness. Rosenberg optimistic that Dems are much more likely to win election. "


Ty, BZ.

[Maga Nuts]

Win or lose, Trump is running a very strong campaign, and his top surrogates are the best that I can remember in any campaign. Vivek Ramaswamy, J.D. Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard all are delivering top-notch interviews and stump speeches. I will not hesitate to vote for any of them when their time to run comes. Finding room in the campaign for RFK, Jr. and Elon Musk were also great strategic moves by Trump.

If Trump continues to attract and retain similar top talent after he wins the election, the next four years could be something special.

Let's hope it wasn't anywhere near his first 4 years. The covid disaster response over 1 million dead Americans under his watch, a attempted overthrow of the government, with holding money to investigate his political opponent, left office with less jobs than when he took office. Special now that's more like a horror story. 
Every who wins will inherit an excellent economy that's what Ruport Murdoch Wall Street Journal said. When you have the owner of Fox says the economy is excellent when a democrat is in the White House you have a story.


The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy - WSJ

[Hoot Gibson]

Win or lose, Trump is running a very strong campaign, and his top surrogates are the best that I can remember in any campaign. Vivek Ramaswamy, J.D. Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard all are delivering top-notch interviews and stump speeches. I will not hesitate to vote for any of them when their time to run comes. Finding room in the campaign for RFK, Jr. and Elon Musk were also great strategic moves by Trump.

If Trump continues to attract and retain similar top talent after he wins the election, the next four years could be something special.

Let's hope it wasn't anywhere near his first 4 years. The covid disaster response over 1 million dead Americans under his watch, a attempted overthrow of the government, with holding money to investigate his political opponent, left office with less jobs than when he took office. Special now that's more like a horror story. 
Every who wins will inherit an excellent economy that's what Ruport Murdoch Wall Street Journal said. When you have the owner of Fox says the economy is excellent when a democrat is in the White House you have a story.


The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy - WSJ

Not even Kamala Harris is stupid enough to blame Trump for COVID during this campaign. If Democrats thought voters would buy your arguments, then they would be running on them. Instead, Harris is promising to fight price gouging and promising to hand out money like breath mints to lower prices and make housing more affordable. Too many Americans remember the pre-COVID Trump economy for Harris to cruise into the White House. That is why she is running her Trump is Hitler campaign.

[Hoot Gibson]

If you are wavering on your vote, BGR, consider:

[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQFOPFW0AA4...=4096x4096]

---

---

For those who don't want to watch the above video about early voting, here's the condensed version:




According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)


Thanks, BZ.

---

Summary of the video I posted:


"According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)

Early Republican voters in PA also voted early in GOP nomination process-- and were largely Nikki Haley voters. Looks like they're going for Harris. Haley NC also largely voted early. "Some of that surge... appears to be Republicans voting for Harris, not Trump." Rosenberg points to Harris spending tons of time working on crossover voting from Republican voters. If she continues to do it, chances are there's a reason.

"There really isn't any good data for the Republican Party right now," said Rosenberg. Harris up 2.5 in independent polls, while Trump is up +1 in GOP/ Red Wave polls.

Bonier says women vote more often before Election Day. That said, if Republicans are indeed voting for Trump early, you'd expect the genders to get closer. They're not. Since Dobbs, younger women and women over the age of 65 are most committed-- and most likely to vote. Expect to see a large turnout operation for young Harris women, as they haven't yet been seen in the numbers. But they're likely coming in droves.

Rosenberg cautions us not to assume Trump overperforms all public polls. 2016 was changed by Comey; before he stuck his thumb on the scale, polling seemed to be right. (Not sure how he came to that conclusion. Seems questionable, at best.) Since Dobbs, there's been a consistent Dem overperformance from polls. Outer edge of Trump coalition struggling to vote for him. The non-MAGA can't quite pull that lever. (Similar to fascists in Europe, fwiw.) Internal data shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump's ugliness. Rosenberg optimistic that Dems are much more likely to win election. "


Ty, BZ.

That is a copious amount of wishful thinking. If we forget about the polls, which include the canvasing of early voters, Harris is acting like a very desperate candidate and Trump is acting like a candidate who is confident in a win but not easing up on the accelerator. If Harris was not being heckled so loudly at her major campaign events, if she was declining opportunities to court male voters such as those in Joe Rogan's audience, and if she was not so bad in the two or three real interviews that she has had, then maybe her behavior could be interpreted as a candidate with the lead playing it safe. The fact that she is arguably the worst campaigner in the history of presidential politics suggests that desperation is the better interpretation of her bizarre behavior during the final days of a close campaign.

[SEKYFAN]

If you are wavering on your vote, BGR, consider:

[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQFOPFW0AA4...=4096x4096]

---

---

For those who don't want to watch the above video about early voting, here's the condensed version:




According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)


Thanks, BZ.

---

Summary of the video I posted:


"According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)

Early Republican voters in PA also voted early in GOP nomination process-- and were largely Nikki Haley voters. Looks like they're going for Harris. Haley NC also largely voted early. "Some of that surge... appears to be Republicans voting for Harris, not Trump." Rosenberg points to Harris spending tons of time working on crossover voting from Republican voters. If she continues to do it, chances are there's a reason.

"There really isn't any good data for the Republican Party right now," said Rosenberg. Harris up 2.5 in independent polls, while Trump is up +1 in GOP/ Red Wave polls.

Bonier says women vote more often before Election Day. That said, if Republicans are indeed voting for Trump early, you'd expect the genders to get closer. They're not. Since Dobbs, younger women and women over the age of 65 are most committed-- and most likely to vote. Expect to see a large turnout operation for young Harris women, as they haven't yet been seen in the numbers. But they're likely coming in droves.

Rosenberg cautions us not to assume Trump overperforms all public polls. 2016 was changed by Comey; before he stuck his thumb on the scale, polling seemed to be right. (Not sure how he came to that conclusion. Seems questionable, at best.) Since Dobbs, there's been a consistent Dem overperformance from polls. Outer edge of Trump coalition struggling to vote for him. The non-MAGA can't quite pull that lever. (Similar to fascists in Europe, fwiw.) Internal data shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump's ugliness. Rosenberg optimistic that Dems are much more likely to win election. "


Ty, BZ.

That is a copious amount of wishful thinking. If we forget about the polls, which include the canvasing of early voters, Harris is acting like a very desperate candidate and Trump is acting like a candidate who is confident in a win but not easing up on the accelerator. If Harris was not being heckled so loudly at her major campaign events, if she was declining opportunities to court male voters such as those in Joe Rogan's audience, and if she was not so bad in the two or three real interviews that she has had, then maybe her behavior could be interpreted as a candidate with the lead playing it safe. The fact that she is arguably the worst campaigner in the history of presidential politics suggests that desperation is the better interpretation of her bizarre behavior during the final days of a close campaign.

Trump is acting confident because that helps his narrative of election fraud in case he loses, also because of his narcissistic personality disorder.  

Let's face it, there is not really a good choice to make in this election, it's more about the lesser of two evils.

[Maga Nuts]

If you are wavering on your vote, BGR, consider:

[Image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQFOPFW0AA4...=4096x4096]

---

---

For those who don't want to watch the above video about early voting, here's the condensed version:




According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)


Thanks, BZ.

---

Summary of the video I posted:


"According to Bonier and Rosenberg, Dem early voting is better than the media narrative.

They're running about even in battlegrounds with what they did in 2020, better in 4 of 8 purple states (including Nebraska).

Too, according to Bonier, low-propensity voters aren't showing up (yet), as the large early Republican votes have come from 2020 GOP voters who voted on Election Day. They're cannibalizing their day-of votes to stick close to Dems.

New Dem voters-- nearly 1M of them-- are doubling Republicans so far.

2 possible reasons why Harris is polling so well among early voters.

1.) Every pollster has oversampled Democrats.

2.) Probability is that there's a lot of crossover voting-- and many of them are voting Democratic. (Trust the exit polls, in other words.)

Early Republican voters in PA also voted early in GOP nomination process-- and were largely Nikki Haley voters. Looks like they're going for Harris. Haley NC also largely voted early. "Some of that surge... appears to be Republicans voting for Harris, not Trump." Rosenberg points to Harris spending tons of time working on crossover voting from Republican voters. If she continues to do it, chances are there's a reason.

"There really isn't any good data for the Republican Party right now," said Rosenberg. Harris up 2.5 in independent polls, while Trump is up +1 in GOP/ Red Wave polls.

Bonier says women vote more often before Election Day. That said, if Republicans are indeed voting for Trump early, you'd expect the genders to get closer. They're not. Since Dobbs, younger women and women over the age of 65 are most committed-- and most likely to vote. Expect to see a large turnout operation for young Harris women, as they haven't yet been seen in the numbers. But they're likely coming in droves.

Rosenberg cautions us not to assume Trump overperforms all public polls. 2016 was changed by Comey; before he stuck his thumb on the scale, polling seemed to be right. (Not sure how he came to that conclusion. Seems questionable, at best.) Since Dobbs, there's been a consistent Dem overperformance from polls. Outer edge of Trump coalition struggling to vote for him. The non-MAGA can't quite pull that lever. (Similar to fascists in Europe, fwiw.) Internal data shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump's ugliness. Rosenberg optimistic that Dems are much more likely to win election. "


Ty, BZ.

That is a copious amount of wishful thinking. If we forget about the polls, which include the canvasing of early voters, Harris is acting like a very desperate candidate and Trump is acting like a candidate who is confident in a win but not easing up on the accelerator. If Harris was not being heckled so loudly at her major campaign events, if she was declining opportunities to court male voters such as those in Joe Rogan's audience, and if she was not so bad in the two or three real interviews that she has had, then maybe her behavior could be interpreted as a candidate with the lead playing it safe. The fact that she is arguably the worst campaigner in the history of presidential politics suggests that desperation is the better interpretation of her bizarre behavior during the final days of a close campaign.

Trump is acting confident because that helps his narrative of election fraud in case he loses, also because of his narcissistic personality disorder.  

Let's face it, there is not really a good choice to make in this election, it's more about the lesser of two evils.

The BGR expert we know who that is still believes the Cyber Ninjas found fraud in Arizona in 2021

[Hoot Gibson]

Trump 312+. Republicans are not predicting a blowout win because they don't want to just win, they want to win a clear mandate.

[Hoot Gibson]

Still waiting on vector's prediction of the Electoral Vote totals. Could it be that he knows who is going to win but is afraid of a heaping plate of crow? 

[SEKYFAN]

During a CNN Town Hall meeting yesterday, Kamala Harris criticized Donald Trump for not getting the southern border wall built during his first term. She is now promising to get the wall built. You really cannot make this stuff up.

How much did Mexico pay for that wall?  I seem to recall Trump guaranteeing that they would pay...