[Cactus Jack]

Commence soothsaying for the SEC Tournament's seeding and eventual outcomes.


Format:

Round 1:
11 vs. 14
12 vs. 13

Round 2:
8 vs. 9
5 vs. 12/13 winner
7 vs. 10
6 vs. 11/14 winner

Round 3:
1 vs. 8/9 winner
4 vs. 5/12/13 winner
3 vs. 6/11/14 winner
2 vs. 7/10 winner

Round 4:
1/8/9 winner vs. 4/5/12/13 winner
3/6/11/14 winner vs. 2/7/10 winner

Round 5:
1/4/5/8/9/12/13 winner vs. 2/3/6/7/10/11/14 winner

---

Seeds that are probably locked in:

12 - Georgia (5 conference wins to date)
13 - Vanderbilt (2 conference wins to date)
14 - Missouri (0 conference wins to date)

---

Current League Record/Rank & Remaining Schedule:

1. Alabama (11-3):
@Ole Miss, vs. Tenn., @Florida, vs. Ark.

2. Tennessee (10-3):
vs. Texas A&M, vs. Auburn, @Alabama, @South Carolina, vs. Kentucky

3. South Carolina (10-4):
@Texas A&M, vs. Florida, vs. Tenn, @Miss St.

4. Auburn (9-4):
vs. Georiga (currently lead by 14+), @Tenn., vs. Miss St., @Missouri, vs. Georgia

5. Kentucky (9-5):
@Miss. St., vs. Arkansas, vs. Vanderbilt, @Tennessee

6. Florida (9-5):
vs. Missouri, @South Carolina, vs. Alabama, @Vanderbilt

7. Mississippi St. (7-6):
@LSU, vs. Kentucky, @Auburn, @Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss

8. Texas A&M (6-7):
@Tennessee, vs. South Carolina, @Georgia, vs. Miss St., @Ole Miss

9. LSU (6-7):
vs. Miss St., vs. Georgia, @Vanderbilt, @Arkansas, vs. Missouri

10. Ole Miss (6-8):
vs. Alabama, @Missouri, @Georgia, vs. Texas A&M

11. Georgia* (5-8):
vs. Auburn (currently trail by 14+), @LSU, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss, @Auburn

12. Arkansas* (5-9):
vs. Vanderbilt, @Kentucky, vs. LSU, @Alabama
*Georgia is 11 but losing badly to Auburn during a game in progress... Arkansas owns head-to-head tie breaker

[Cactus Jack]

Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina have tough remaining schedules and each dropping two-plus games us entirely feasible.

Kentucky and Auburn have softer trips leading in to the SEC.

Very surprised that Mizzou had yet to win an SEC game. Think that they have at least two wins (regular season and SEC Tournament) left in them.

Arkansas is much better than the 12th best team in this league.

Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss also have the capability to win one to two more.

I honestly don't think that Kentucky winning out to close the regular season is off the table either. I'll go as far as to say that I think Kentucky either wins in Knoxville or gets them in a blowout in the SEC Tournament.

Teams I'd like to see Kentucky avoid in the SEC Tournament: Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama.

Teams I'd love to see Kentucky match-up with: South Carolina, LSU, and Florida.

Still plenty up in the air at this point, will update with a post on potential match-ups once the picture comes more into focus.

[Old School Hound]

Whether SEC Tourney or NCAA Tourney , Kentucky needs to avoid any team that wants to win in a tough, physical half court rock fight style of a game. The Cats can outpace any team that wants to get up and down the court and push the tempo , finesse over physicality type game (Exhibit A: Alabama) but will struggle against a grind it out in halfcourt scrum type of game(Exhibit B: South Carolina).

Racehorse basketball, baby!!!

[jetpilot]

You forgot Exhibit B: Tennessee in Rupp

[Old School Hound]

Mississippi State DESTROYED LSU in Baton Rouge yesterday. They have a "white out" planned for Kentucky this week at the Hump. These dogs team are a lot better than the Tigers we lost to last week. CAUTION AHEAD!!!

[Cactus Jack]

I don't like the story that the early MSU line is telling. Expected more than UK -2.5 to open.

[jetpilot]

I don't like the story that the early MSU line is telling. Expected more than UK -2.5 to open.

UK +2.5 to open. Now up to +3.5.

[Cactus Jack]

I don't like the story that the early MSU line is telling. Expected more than UK -2.5 to open.

UK +2.5 to open. Now up to +3.5.

You are correct. I must have had fat fingers on the keyboard yesterday.

[jetpilot]

I don't like the story that the early MSU line is telling. Expected more than UK -2.5 to open.

UK +2.5 to open. Now up to +3.5.

You are correct. I must have had fat fingers on the keyboard yesterday.

I knew what you meant. Agree don't like the story it is telling. MSU red hot. I put a bet on UK on the 3.5 and on the money line +150 and I never bet on UK.

[Cactus Jack]

I knew what you meant. Agree don't like the story it is telling. MSU red hot. I put a bet on UK on the 3.5 and on the money line +150 and I never bet on UK.

Kentucky needs to hold serve here. Still sitting at the #5 spot for the SEC Tournament. Alabama and especially Tennessee don't exactly have the easiest remaining schedules either.

I don't know that the seeding picture comes entirely into focus until the final buzzer sounds on the last night of the regular season, but I do feel that this Kentucky team needs a favorable seed/draw to do well in March-- that starts with a good showing in the SEC Tournament.

If the Cats can't get a Top 4 seed in a favorable region, I would just as soon see them as a 6, 7, or 10 in a weak region... lately the 4/13 & 5/12 games seem like death traps for Power 5s against tough mid-majors & the 10 seeds look reserved for Power 5's backing their way in.

Would certainly want to avoid the #8/9 line and seeing a 1 seed in the 2nd Round (unless we got Purdue in Rupp).

[Old School Hound]

I knew what you meant. Agree don't like the story it is telling. MSU red hot. I put a bet on UK on the 3.5 and on the money line +150 and I never bet on UK.

Kentucky needs to hold serve here. Still sitting at the #5 spot for the SEC Tournament. Alabama and especially Tennessee don't exactly have the easiest remaining schedules either.

I don't know that the seeding picture comes entirely into focus until the final buzzer sounds on the last night of the regular season, but I do feel that this Kentucky team needs a favorable seed/draw to do well in March-- that starts with a good showing in  the SEC Tournament.

If the Cats can't get a Top 4 seed in a favorable region, I would just as soon see them as a 6, 7, or 10 in a weak region... lately the 4/13 & 5/12 games seem like death traps for Power 5s against tough mid-majors & the 10 seeds look reserved for Power 5's backing their way in.

Would certainly want to avoid the #8/9 line and seeing a 1 seed in the 2nd Round (unless we got Purdue in Rupp).

Cats aren't getting a 8/9 seed. Not happening. I look for a 4 or 5. Outside chance for a 3. 6 seed if we finish poorly.

---

I don't like the story that the early MSU line is telling. Expected more than UK -2.5 to open.

UK +2.5 to open. Now up to +3.5.

You are correct. I must have had fat fingers on the keyboard yesterday.

I knew what you meant. Agree don't like the story it is telling. MSU red hot. I put a bet on UK on the 3.5 and on the money line +150 and I never bet on UK.

If I was a betting man, I would have bet as you did. However, this season it's far from a sure thing. I think the Cats will win but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lose by 8 or 10.

[Cactus Jack]

@Old School Hound don't think we'll be an 8 or 9 either, but Purdue doesn't scare me. Three bigs to throw at Edey & don't know that they are built to withstand runs and play from behind-- if we can't handle them, we weren't going far anyway.

Purdue's three losses are to Nebraska, Penn State, and Ohio State, so not exactly Murder's Row despite some of their nice wins early.

I haven't trusted a Big 10 teams not named Michigan State in years and haven't been torched yet.

Teams I don't want to see: Houston, UConn, Marquette, Baylor, and if they're anything like last year, San Diego State & Florida Atlantic.

[Cactus Jack]

Tennessee defeats Auburn and suddenly their SEC record matches Kentucky's. Could be a big night for the Cats standing with betting favorite Texas A&M currently tied with South Carolina late and Ole Miss leading Alabama at the half.

Best hope for a top seed might now be seeing Tennessee win out (save for Kentucky's game in Knoxville), which would give Alabama and South Carolina at least one more loss. In that scenario, it's possible that Tennessee goes in as the #1 and Kentucky at the #2. I'm assuming that Kentucky would own the tiebreaker over Alabama and Auburn due to head-to-head victories.

Florida hung on against Missouri and could still have control of their own destiny with remaining games against South Carolina and Alabama.

Here's to hoping Ole Miss and Texas A&M can help us out.

[Cactus Jack]

Promised an update, but it's also a bit late.

Kentucky is in a four-way tie for 2nd to 5th at 12-5.

Tennessee is locked in at the #1 slot, regardless of the outcome of Saturday's game with Kentucky in Knoxville.

Auburn (vs. UGA), Alabama (@Ark.), and South Carolina (@Miss. St.) are tied with Kentucky.

Florida (@Vanderbilt) is sitting behind Kentucky at 11-6.

Everyone that Kentucky is locked into a race with is likely favored in their upcoming matchup. I still think Kentucky gets Tennessee at least once this season-- either in Knoxville or in the SEC Tournament.

[Old School Hound]

Promised an update, but it's also a bit late.

Kentucky is in a four-way tie for 2nd to 5th at 12-5.

Tennessee is locked in at the #1 slot, regardless of the outcome of Saturday's game with Kentucky in Knoxville.

Auburn (vs. UGA), Alabama (@Ark.), and South Carolina (@Miss. St.) are tied with Kentucky.

Florida (@Vanderbilt) is sitting behind Kentucky at 11-6.

Everyone that Kentucky is locked into a race with is likely favored in their upcoming matchup. I still think Kentucky gets Tennessee at least once this season-- either in Knoxville or in the SEC Tournament.

Who gets the tie-breaker between KY and FLA  and SC in a three-way tie? I can see those three finishing with the same record after tomorrow's games. What about KY-FLA in a two-way tie?

[Cactus Jack]

Who gets the tie-breaker between KY and FLA  and SC in a three-way tie? I can see those three finishing with the same record after tomorrow's games. What about KY-FLA in a two-way tie?

A couple of links on the tie-breakers and the tournament schedule (including game times and networks). To answer your question on the tiebreakers (if the information I've found is accurate, it's going to be complicated and dependent on how well Kentucky fares against Tennessee and on the outcome of not only other games, but other tie-breakers as well).

https://www.secsports.com/news/2017/10/t...iebreakers

https://www.secsports.com/championships/...ampionship


Two-Team Tie

The following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken:

    Won-lost results of head-to-head competition between the two teams.
    Won-lost record of the two teams versus the No. 1 seed (and proceeding through the No. 14 seed, if necessary).
    Coin flip by the Commissioner.


Three-Team Tie (or more)

When three or more teams are tied, the following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken. If two teams re- main tied after a tiebreaker provision, the two-team tiebreaker formula will be used.

    Best winning percentage of games played among the tied teams (Example: Team A is 3-1, Team B is 2-2 and Team C is 1-3 - Team A would be seeded highest, Team B second-highest and Team C lowest of the three).
    Best winning percentage of the tied teams versus the No. 1 seed (and proceeding through the No. 14 seed, if necessary).
    If two teams remain, coin flip by the Commissioner.
    If three or more teams remain, draw by the Commissioner.

For the purpose of seeding, if an institution is precluded from participating in the tournament, such institution will automatically be seeded last. However, for the purpose of breaking ties, that team will remain where it finished in the regular-season standings BEFORE being seeded last.

[Cactus Jack]

Current lines for tomorrow's games (that could have a large effect on Kentucky's seeding):
-Tennessee (-7.5) vs. Kentucky
-Mississippi State (-4.5) vs. South Carolina
-Alabama (-14.5) vs. Arkansas
-Auburn (-16.5) vs. Georgia
-Florida (-10.5) vs. Vanderbilt
-Ole Miss (-1.5) vs. Texas A&M
-LSU (-7.5) vs. Vanderbilt

A South Carolina loss would be huge for Kentucky, as they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cats and they've beaten the #1 overall seed (Tennessee); this will probably all still be moot if Kentucky and South Carolina each lose, as I think South Carolina would still own the tiebreaker (unless there's a convoluted scenario where there's a three way tie between Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida that would give the Cats the edge).

I think that if Kentucky wins tomorrow and South Carolina loses, then the Cats are a lock for #2, as they'd own the head-to-head over Auburn and Alabama. That one is a very simple, but realistic scenario. If so, the Cats would be the #2 and the Vols the #1 and wouldn't be able to meet again until the SEC final. I don't think that the league office would mind this scenario-- if the Cats and Vols split, we probably still see Tennessee as the lowest #1 or highest #2 and see Kentucky as a low #2 or high #3 given the SEC Tournament wins that each would have to pick up along the way.

There are probably some of these scenarios that are mathematically impossible (i.e., Florida getting to the #2 or even #4, Ole Miss getting the #7) but it's late and I'm not running each and every scenario when we're a few hours away from things really coming into focus. With that said, here are the locks--
Locks:
1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky/Auburn/Alabama/South Carolina/Florida
3. Kentucky/Auburn/Alabama/South Carolina/Florida
4. Kentucky/Auburn/Alabama/South Carolina/Florida
5. Kentucky/Auburn/Alabama/South Carolina/Florida
6. Kentucky/Auburn/Alabama/South Carolina/Florida
7. LSU/Mississippi State/Texas A&M/Ole Miss
8. LSU/Mississippi State/Texas A&M/Ole Miss
9. LSU/Mississippi State/Texas A&M/Ole Miss
10. LSU/Mississippi State/Texas A&M/Ole Miss/Georgia/Arkansas
11. Ole Miss/Georgia/Arkansas
12. Ole Miss/Georgia/Arkansas
13. Vanderbilt
14. Missouri

[Cactus Jack]

If tomorrow's games are chalk (the team who is favored, as indicated above, is victorious) then the standings would go as follows:
1. Tennessee (15-3)
2. Alabama (13-5)
3. Auburn (13-5)
4. Kentucky/South Carolina/Florida (12-6)... tiebreaker to South Carolina for wins against Kentucky and Florida
5. Kentucky/South Carolina/Florida (12-6)... tiebreaker to Kentucky for win % against Alabama being > Florida's win %
6. Kentucky/South Carolina/Florida (12-6)... tiebreaker leaves Florida
7. Mississippi State/LSU (9-9)... tiebreaker to Mississippi State for win against LSU
8. Mississippi State/LSU (9-9)... tiebreaker leaves LSU
9. Ole Miss/Texas A&M (8-10)... tiebreaker to Ole Miss for wins against A&M
10. Ole Miss/Texas A&M (8-10)... tiebreaker leaves Texas A&M
11. Arkansas/Georgia (6-12)... tiebreaker to Georgia for their win % against South Carolina being > Arkansas' win %
12. Arkansas/Georgia (6-12)... tiebreaker leaves Arkansas
13. Vanderbilt (3-15)
14. Missouri (0-18)


***I think that this is the most likely scenario, but did find it interesting that none of the fan sites (including KSR, Alabama, or Auburn blogs) mentioned what would happen in the event that Kentucky and South Carolina both lose while Alabama and Auburn both win. I'm guessing that this is because they were just doing scenarios for their own teams (as opposed to the league as a whole). **KSR has a separate article where they talk about Kentucky getting the #4 if the Cats and South Carolina lose while Alabama and Auburn win, but I don't see how this is possible and think that they've wrote this in error (or just used very poor syntax in saying "if Alabama OR Auburn win")... If Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida each win, South Carolina wins the tie-breaker because they are undefeated against the Cats and Gators; that'd leave the latter two to go through a separate tie-breaker, which would go to the Cats.

If the favorites win out tomorrow, then this is our bracket:
Round 1:
Georgia vs. Missouri
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt

Round 2:
LSU vs. Ole Miss
Kentucky vs. Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
Florida vs. Georgia/Missouri winner

Round 3:
Tennessee vs. LSU/Ole Miss winner
South Carolina vs. Kentucky/Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner
Auburn vs. Florida/Georgia/Missouri winner
Alabama vs. Mississippi State/Texas A&M winner

Round 4:
Tennessee/LSU/Ole Miss winner vs. South Carolina/Kentucky/Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner
Alabama/Mississippi State/Texas A&M winner vs. Auburn/Florida/Georgia/Missouri winner


If this comes to pass for the Cats, it'd mean needing to beat Arkansas or Vanderbilt (most likely Arkansas) for a third time in the first round. They'd need to beat South Carolina (who I don't worry about like the rest of you do) in round two. Then it's most likely on to Tennessee in round three. Fourth round is whoever comes out of the Alabama/Auburn/Florida/Mississippi State side; at that point, you'd have to think that Kentucky would have earned the SEC title. I have confidence in this team and think that it could be done, but getting the #5 and needing to rattle off four straight against Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Auburn/Alabama would be a big ask. It may also be a bit draining to go through all of that (including the Sunday final) then have to jump right into the NCAA Tournament.

Lets hope that the Cats can take care of Tennessee tomorrow and Mississippi State beats South Carolina. If that happens, Kentucky is the #2 and avoids a potential rubber-match with Tennessee until the final. At the #2, they'd probably open up with the winner of Mississippi State and Ole Miss, then likely see Alabama in the semi. From there, it'd be whoever came out of the top (Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina). Not an easy road, but one that I like much more than the alternative.

[Cactus Jack]

Arkansas holding on against Alabama could be a very good thing for Kentucky. The Hogs lead 71-65 with 2:30 remaining in regulation.

Kentucky would own a head-to-head or three-way tiebreaker with Alabama and/or Auburn.

---

Well, thanks for nothing Arkansas. They go to OT and can't hang on against Alabama.

South Carolina currently leads Mississippi State 9-4 and Texas A&M leads Ole Miss 27-15.

[Cactus Jack]

Kentucky leads Tennessee by 10 in the second half. Florida leads Vanderbilt by 3 early in the second half.

South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Alabama were all winners in the earlier games.

In tonight's late games, Auburn is a heavy favorite against Georgia and the outcome of Missouri at LSU will also have seeding ramifications (at least at the moment). I'll try to update everything once the Kentucky game goes final.

[Cactus Jack]

As I'm getting things prepped, Vanderbilt upsets Florida. Don't know if this will actually help or hurt Kentucky overall, as it could have been beneficial to have them in some tiebreakers with others.

---

33-27, Pikeville leads at the half. For Pikeville, Slone with 12 and Fitzer with 4.

[Cactus Jack]

Locks:
1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky
3. Alabama
4. Auburn
5. South Carolina
6. Florida
7. Texas A&M
8. LSU
9. Mississippi State
10. Ole Miss
11. Georgia
12. Arkansas
13. Vanderbilt
14. Missouri


Thoughts:
Would have loved to see the Cats have an opportunity to get revenge against what I feel is an overrated South Carolina team. I don't care how well they may be able to defend when playing well, they need to score to win. Still, I think that the Cats can handle another shot from Alabama. Not scared by a rematch against Texas A&M or another shot from an Ole Miss team that needed to win today but couldn't. Florida/Georgia/Missouri is about the best combo of "I'd hate to see Kentucky play them if they got hot" that I could have picked from the field.

Given where we were last night (read: the possibility of needing to win four straight with the "easiest" game being an opener against Arkansas), I think that this has turned out as well as you could have drawn it up.

[jetpilot]

Withdrew all my winnings but $500 which I will try to run into something in the postseason. Put $150 on Kentucky to win SEC tournament +400, $25 on S Carolina +6000, $25 on Texas A & M at +10000. Tennessee +130 and Kentucky +400 is stupid.

[Cactus Jack]

Fun tournament so far.

Kentucky gets a rematch with Texas A&M, so we get a peek at how much we've actually improved.

Rick Barnes is in March form, having now lost two straight going into the NCAA tournament.

I was not worried about a rematch with South Carolina in the least and they are getting exposed as the fraud they are by Auburn. Mississippi State gets the winner of that one and will need a win to keep feel comfortable about getting in, so hopefully they at least soften up an Auburn team (who I'd like to avoid a rematch with) in the semi.

Florida/Alabama could be a fun watch. Hoping to see the Gators and a shot at revenge if the Cats advance. If Kentucky loses, we should probably be rooting for an Alabama-Auburn final so the overall of two of our biggest wins doesn't drop.

In the event that Kentucky and Alabama win, I think we match up well with them and don't know that anything other than a blowout loss would drop us too far.


Prediction:

Kentucky doesn't cover against a hungry A&M team, and narrowly beats Alabama (who squeaked in a cover against Florida) in the semifinal.

In the top bracket, Auburn continues their beat down of South Carolina and gets to rest some starters late. That helps propel the Tigers to a backdoor cover against a hungry Mississippi State team.

Unfortunately, the Tigers bring the Cats back to Earth as they defeat Kentucky and cover in the final.

[Old School Hound]

KY-AUB final wouldn't surprise me at all. UK matches up well with Bama. I could see the disgusting Pearl hoisting the Sankey Cup on Sunday.