[Cactus Jack]

Sweet 16 Draw Show is coming up on Monday. I always like to pose this question prior to the draw (before we know what regions will match-up) so there's a frame of reference for later discussions on who got a good or bad draw. 

This won't be perfect, because some regions may have one really strong team but would send a terrible representative to Rupp if they were upset while others are more balanced. With that said, where do you rank them in terms of overall strength and/or who you'd most or least want your favorite team to draw? 

I'll post my thoughts later.

[Cactus Jack]

Splitting lots of hairs, but here goes. Current RPI for the highest ranked team in their respective region is in parenthesis.

Tier 1:
11th (.713)
7th (.667)
9th (.691)

Tier 2:
6th (.643)
2nd (.674)

Tier 3:
8th (.693)
4th (.665)
13th (.682)
10th (.676)
5th (.629)

Tier 4:
15th (.649)
16th (.663)
1st (.627)
3rd (.610)

Tier 5:
12th (.617)
14th (.638)


Toughest calls were what to do with the 3rd Tier. The 8th or 4th could go into Tier 2 just as easily. The 15th may be Tier 3 now, but their top team (Pikeville) had some tough losses early and I try to give weight to how the regions fared against one another head-to-head. Pikeville's 72-47 home loss to Ashland Blazer earlier this season was especially hard to look past.

Slotting the 13th was tough considering how well Harlan County played against teams like Male, DeSales, and even Bowling Green, but they've just lost to Pikeville and Frederick Douglass. At the end if the day, I don't know that they're deep enough for a region like the 11th or 7th to fear drawing them.

10th has GRC, who to date, has basically beaten Douglass but lost to South Laurel with lots of filler in between. We'll probably find out more about them soon with Madison Southern, Great Crossing, and Scott County on tap.


Metrics say the 5th isn't good, but this has been the case in the past and they've looked better than the analytics predicted once they got to Lexington. Unless there's a really strong field (read: few upsets), I just struggle to see them being one of the three worst teams in the field, especially if E'town and Ayden Evans get back.

[jetpilot]

Splitting lots of hairs, but here goes. Current RPI for the highest ranked team in their respective region is in parenthesis.

Tier 1:
11th (.713)
7th (.667)
9th (.691)

Tier 2:
6th (.643)
2nd (.674)

Tier 3:
8th (.693)
4th (.665)
13th (.682)
10th (.676)
5th (.629)

Tier 4:
15th (.649)
16th (.663)
1st (.627)
3rd (.610)

Tier 5:
12th (.617)
14th (.638)


Toughest calls were what to do with the 3rd Tier. The 8th or 4th could go into Tier 2 just as easily. The 15th may be Tier 3 now, but their top team (Pikeville) had some tough losses early and I try to give weight to how the regions fared against one another head-to-head. Pikeville's 72-47 home loss to Ashland Blazer earlier this season was especially hard to look past.

Slotting the 13th was tough considering how well Harlan County played against teams like Male, DeSales, and even Bowling Green, but they've just lost to Pikeville and Frederick Douglass. At the end if the day, I don't know that they're deep enough for a region like the 11th or 7th to fear drawing them.

10th has GRC, who to date, has basically beaten Douglass but lost to South Laurel with lots of filler in between. We'll probably find out more about them soon with Madison Southern, Great Crossing, and Scott County on tap.


Metrics say the 5th isn't good, but this has been the case in the past and they've looked better than the analytics predicted once they got to Lexington. Unless there's a really strong field (read: few upsets), I just struggle to see them being one of the three worst teams in the field, especially if E'town and Ayden Evans get back.

Hard to look past the 3rd game of the season? Pikeville is 13-2 since then with wins over Boyd Co. (21-4) by 24 and Harlan Co. (21-4). Only losses since then to a team from California and Evangel Christian. Pretty stout.

[Cactus Jack]

Hard to look past the 3rd game of the season? Pikeville is 13-2 since then with wins over Boyd Co. (21-4) by 24 and Harlan Co. (21-4). Only losses since then to a team from California and Evangel Christian. Pretty stout.

Yes. If it weren't so lopsided or if there was a good explanation (injuries) then I would give it less weight. I'm also not saying that I give it the same credence as games in the latter part of their schedule either. Just that it was a bad loss to another top mountain team. The early loss to Knott County Central doesn't help either.

I'm sure that they are a different team now, but their toughest competition was a two point home win over Harlan County and a 15 point loss to Evangel on a neutral floor.

The 15th was either going to be toward the end of Tier 3 or top of Tier 4. The difference was that the teams in Tier 3 had better wins and "not as bad" losses, plus they seem to have a little more depth.

[jetpilot]

Hard to look past the 3rd game of the season? Pikeville is 13-2 since then with wins over Boyd Co. (21-4) by 24 and Harlan Co. (21-4). Only losses since then to a team from California and Evangel Christian. Pretty stout.

Yes. If it weren't so lopsided or if there was a good explanation (injuries) then I would give it less weight. I'm also not saying that I give it the same credence as games in the latter part of their schedule either. Just that it was a bad loss to another top mountain team. The early loss to Knott County Central doesn't help either.

I'm sure that they are a different team now, but their toughest competition was a two point home win over Harlan County and a 15 point loss to Evangel on a neutral floor.

The 15th was either going to be toward the end of Tier 3 or top of Tier 4. The difference was that the teams in Tier 3 had better wins and "not as bad" losses, plus they seem to have a little more depth.

You forgot about the 24 point win over Boyd County (who beat Ashland twice BTW)

[Cactus Jack]

You forgot about the 24 point win over Boyd County (who beat Ashland twice BTW)

I don't think Boyd County is bad at all, but I'm not always impressed by mountain teams who only beat other mountain teams and no one else, at least for this type of discussion or these type of rankings.

[dodger]

I've seen multiple explanations on why the 14th is down, but man 12th is awful as well. Feels like that region shouldn't be that bad.

[Diablo]

13th is terrible to with the exception of Harlan County.

[RTruth]

Looks about right.

I will say Pikeville is a much better team. Kids have come into their roles and they play hard.

[Cactus Jack]

Looks about right.

I will say Pikeville is a much better team. Kids have come into their roles and they play hard.

I don't think Pikeville, Ashland, or Boyd County are bad. I think Pikeville has obviously improved as well.

I just don't see anyone saying "damnit, we drew the 15th!".

If you told any of the other regions that they had the choice of having to play the 15th or 16th to open the tournament or that they could take their chances with the draw, I think we all know what they'd be doing.

The same probably goes for any of the mountain regions, 13th included.

[jetpilot]

Looks about right.

I will say Pikeville is a much better team. Kids have come into their roles and they play hard.

I don't think Pikeville, Ashland, or Boyd County are bad. I think Pikeville has obviously improved as well.

I just don't see anyone saying "damnit, we drew the 15th!".

If you told any of the other regions that they had the choice of having to play the 15th or 16th to open the tournament or that they could take their chances with the draw, I think we all know what they'd be doing.

The same probably goes for any of the mountain regions, 13th included.

Pikeville beat a 28-7 John Hardin team in 2018 and a 28-5 North Laurel team with Reed Sheppard in 2022
the last two times they made it to Rupp. People can say what they want to about the draw, means little to nothing.

[Cactus Jack]

Pikeville beat a 28-7 John Hardin team in 2018 and a 28-5 North Laurel team with Reed Sheppard in 2022
the last two times they made it to Rupp. People can say what they want to about the draw, means little to nothing.

2018 team played Ballard, Doss, Taylor County, Cordia, and Madison Southern.

2022 team played Bowling Green and won the All A.

Both of those teams would have been ranked higher.

A better question may be who you think shouldn't be ahead of the 15th (or Pikeville).