[Old School Hound]

I'd like examine the Corbin-Boyle game , not from a score prediction, but from a probability of victory perspective. I know a pretty good majority on here , probably over three-quarters, think Boyle will win. Some have even predicted a blowout.  What I want to hear is the probability number that you would assign to each team chances of winning, with 50%-50% being a complete coin flip and 99.9% to 0.1% being one team has almost no chance of winning.  0%  is not a legitimate assignment of probability because, as we know, this outcome is most certainly not a certainty. 

I think with home field advantage(don't know how much that adds to a team's likelihood of victory) and with a clear coaching advantage, the meter moves well above the 50% mark for Boyle. Even if Corbin is the better team(which may or may not be true), Boyle still gets the edge for being in their home digs and having the better football minds on the sidelines.  If this game were at Corbin , I would have it much closer to 50-50. If it were at Corbin AND Haddix was coaching the Hounds, I would have Corbin at 58+.   But the game is in Danville and Haddix is in black, not red.

In terms of probability I'm thinking Corbin probably maxes out somewhere between 1/3  and 2/5  chance of winning. That's if some things go their way.  They are gonna need some turnovers and some breaks(unless , it turns out they are just simply the better team, which is possible). 

I keep landing on something like :  

Boyle:  68%

Corbin 32%


Btw,  for a neutral field game, Calpreps   has it   Boyle 61%   Corbin 39%.    Again, how much does home field matter?   If you add 6 points for home field, then the calpreps probability goes to 75-25. My assignment of probabilty falls right between the calpreps neutral field prediction and the cal preps 6 points added for home field prediction.  If you add just 3 points for home field, calpreps would have it at 72-28 in favor of the Rebs.

What probabilities would you set for Corbin and Boyle in this big game?


Thanks , in advance, for playing the numbers game.

[Bull got out!]

Interesting numbers....

[Old School Hound]

Interesting numbers....

Bull, honest question, here.  How much do you think home field matters in a game like this?  Does it 3 pts, 6 pts?  more ?  for the home team. I honestly don't know the answer.  Btw, everyone else feel free to give your thoughts, as well.

[BBN2021]

I think 60% - 40% in favor of Boyle. Like last year I don’t think there is much of a talent gap on either side. It comes down to coaching and Haddix wins that battle more times than not. For Corbin to win they have to win the turnover battle and win the big moments in the game. Haddix will roll the dice on 4th down even in his own territory and if Corbin can get a stop or two in those situations they have a chance.

[Old School Hound]

I think 60% - 40% in favor of Boyle. Like last year I don’t think there is much of a talent gap on either side. It comes down to coaching and Haddix wins that battle more times than not. For Corbin to win they have to win the turnover battle and win the big moments in the game. Haddix will roll the dice on 4th down even in his own territory and if Corbin can get a stop or two in those situations they have a chance.

I think your assessment is spot on. Excellent post!

[Hatz]

Would the "naked toilet" effect the probability if Boyle had one for the Hounds???

[Bull got out!]

Interesting numbers....

Bull, honest question, here.  How much do you think home field matters in a game like this?  Does it 3 pts, 6 pts?  more ?  for the home team. I honestly don't know the answer.  Btw, everyone else feel free to give your thoughts, as well.

Honestly, I think the home teams where they don't have to get on a bus and travel is probably the biggest advantage. Corbin is not that far away and I don't think Jett Leg will be a issue. But I always been told you have to be 14 points better than the other team and refs on the road. Whether that is actually true or not is one thing but I know teams mentally prepare that way. This being a 3rd Round Elimination game where both teams know whats at stake, I think really it comes down to preperation, big plays, momentum and turnovers.

[Old School Hound]

Would the "naked toilet" effect the probability if Boyle had one for the Hounds???

Maybe. I don't know how much an advantage the naked toilet adds. lol  I'm thinking it wouldn't move the meter much either way.

---

Interesting numbers....

Bull, honest question, here.  How much do you think home field matters in a game like this?  Does it 3 pts, 6 pts?  more ?  for the home team. I honestly don't know the answer.  Btw, everyone else feel free to give your thoughts, as well.

Honestly, I think the home teams where they don't have to get on a bus and travel is probably the biggest advantage. Corbin is not that far away and I don't think Jett Leg will be a issue. But I always been told you have to be 14 points better than the other team and refs on the road. Whether that is actually true or not is one thing but I know teams mentally prepare that way. This being a 3rd Round Elimination game where both teams know whats at stake, I think really it comes down to preperation, big plays, momentum and turnovers.

Do you think refs tend  to be affected by the home team's venue? In other words, do they tend to favor home teams on questionable calls , more often than not?

[HighViz]

How many diff threads can one make up about a single game?

It’s gonna be played and we will know in about 31 hours. What are we gonna know? I think we find out again and again just how dumb our leaders are.

[Old School Hound]

How many diff threads can one make up about a single game?

It’s gonna be played and we will know in about 31 hours.  What are we gonna know? I think we find out again and again just how dumb our leaders are.

I hope our kids don't believe that our leaders are dumb(even if our leaders are).  I hope they buy in to the fact that they are an ultra talented football(probably one of the two best in the state of KY) who can go on the road and beat another ultra-talented team. If they go into this game with Viz' mindset, our young lads will have no chance.  I hope our youngsters haven't read a word of what you have written for three months(although some of what you've written has a lot of truth to it).

---

How many diff threads can one make up about a single game?

It’s gonna be played and we will know in about 31 hours.  What are we gonna know? I think we find out again and again just how dumb our leaders are.

How many different Corbin/Boyle threads can you click on and suggest that our kids have little shot against the heavenly Rebs and the King of Kings, Coach , Justin Haddix because we have sucky leaders like Greer, Mouser, Hart, Foley and Tremaine?

[TrojanMan69]

100% chance that Coach Haddix continues to own Tommy Greer.

[KnoxvillesFinest]

Thanks for starting a new thread on this. Was worried we wouldn’t get a new one this week.

[Old School Hound]

100% chance that Coach Haddix continues to own Tommy Greer.

You don't understand mathematics.  This is not a certain outcome. You might want to say "highly likely" but not 100%. There is , at least, some degree of uncertainty about this outcome.

---

Thanks for starting a new thread on this. Was worried we wouldn’t get a new one this week.

You might get ten more before 7:30 tomorrow night. Thanks for continuing to show evidence of being KNOXVILLES WORST.  UT sucked against Missouri !!!  

How many Corbin/Boyle threads can you click and comment on to disparage the OP or his team?

[Iggyfan]

99.99% Boyle
00.01% Corbin



.

[Old School Hound]

99.99% Boyle
00.01% Corbin



Bull butter, Iggy Poop.

[64SUR]

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

[Diablo]

How much a difference will it make with the Smith Twins playing both sides of the ball for Corbin this week? Heard 0 is at WR and 99 at RB with Bailey.

[Bull got out!]

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

 The Cannon is my favorite... 100% It gets me everytime it goes off...

[Corbin]

I don’t think home field will factor much in this game. Both teams will have about the same amount of fans. It’d be the same if the game were at Justin Haddix Field at Mike Whitaker Stadium on the banks of Lynn Camp creek as well.

[TD Hounds]

How much a difference will it make with the Smith Twins playing both sides of the ball for Corbin this week?  Heard 0 is at WR and 99 at RB with Bailey.

That would be huge but I’m not gonna count on that until I actually see it, sounds like more of a misinformation campaign, kinda like we’re gonna be a pass first team that I hear every year…

To answer some of what old school is saying I don’t think it’s gonna be much different than last year, stop Haddix’s trick plays and even more so his 4th down gambles and we can definitely win…The flip side is if we get down 14-21 points quick, and with Boyles offense it’s possible, it’s gonna be hard to come back from….I honestly don’t see it being more than 7 points either way but it’s just my opinion and it won’t even bye you a cheeseburger at McDonald’s….

[know1]

How much a difference will it make with the Smith Twins playing both sides of the ball for Corbin this week?  Heard 0 is at WR and 99 at RB with Bailey.

Sounds like desperation to me. If the do that I bump my prediction up to Boyle by 28.

---

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

 The Cannon is my favorite... 100% It gets me everytime it goes off...

It's not a cannon. It's fireworks.

[Old School Hound]

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

While I appreciate the details, 64, sum it up in one line, please.


Give me an overall probability of winning.  Boyle =?  Corbin= ?    I don't give a gosh d#mn about who has the better waterboy , mascot, or toilets.

[Bull got out!]

How much a difference will it make with the Smith Twins playing both sides of the ball for Corbin this week?  Heard 0 is at WR and 99 at RB with Bailey.

Sounds like desperation to me. If the do that I bump my prediction up to Boyle by 28.

---

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

 The Cannon is my favorite... 100% It gets me everytime it goes off...

It's not a cannon. It's fireworks.

Are you serious. I thought the entire time it was a dang cannon. I know when I am not expecting it, gets me every time. I need some of them so I can wake some up that lives in town......LOL 

[Rebel55]

Just my opinion but if you are planning on doing something different that you have not done all season could spell trouble.  Haddix is in a lot of peoples heads this week.

[smoke1015]

100% chance that Coach Haddix continues to own Tommy Greer.

He owns more talent on the field is all I've seen him own. Anyone that thinks Boyle doesn't have better athletes, speed, D1 prospects all over, etc.. is just in flat denial. I guess the facts are facts, one guy has got, what, 1-0 on the other? Or is it 2 or 3 and 0? Last year was razor close, and I thought Boyle should have won that game by 4 TDs.

[Holy Bull]

I'd like examine the Corbin-Boyle game , not from a score prediction, but from a probability of victory perspective. I know a pretty good majority on here , probably over three-quarters, think Boyle will win. Some have even predicted a blowout.  What I want to hear is the probability number that you would assign to each team chances of winning, with 50%-50% being a complete coin flip and 99.9% to 0.1% being one team has almost no chance of winning.  0%  is not a legitimate assignment of probability because, as we know, this outcome is most certainly not a certainty. 

I think with home field advantage(don't know how much that adds to a team's likelihood of victory) and with a clear coaching advantage, the meter moves well above the 50% mark for Boyle. Even if Corbin is the better team(which may or may not be true), Boyle still gets the edge for being in their home digs and having the better football minds on the sidelines.  If this game were at Corbin , I would have it much closer to 50-50. If it were at Corbin AND Haddix was coaching the Hounds, I would have Corbin at 58+.   But the game is in Danville and Haddix is in black, not red.

In terms of probability I'm thinking Corbin probably maxes out somewhere between 1/3  and 2/5  chance of winning. That's if some things go their way.  They are gonna need some turnovers and some breaks(unless , it turns out they are just simply the better team, which is possible). 

I keep landing on something like :  

Boyle:  68%

Corbin 32%


Btw,  for a neutral field game, Calpreps   has it   Boyle 61%   Corbin 39%.    Again, how much does home field matter?   If you add 6 points for home field, then the calpreps probability goes to 75-25. My assignment of probabilty falls right between the calpreps neutral field prediction and the cal preps 6 points added for home field prediction.  If you add just 3 points for home field, calpreps would have it at 72-28 in favor of the Rebs.

What probabilities would you set for Corbin and Boyle in this big game?


Thanks , in advance, for playing the numbers game.

I thought earlier in the year that Corbin would be really tough out because of their size but after watching the FD game where Boyle was outsized in nearly every position, they still dominated.  That fact alone leads me to believe Corbin is not going to be able to come into town and bully them around. Boyle's speed is the obvious difference maker but turnovers could be a big factor and have to go Corbin's way for them to have a chance. That being said, I believe Boyle will create more turnovers as that is an area they excel at and Corbin doesn't. Not worried about the Smith twins on either side of the ball. I'm sure they will knock some passes down, but if they start running, they are going to get hit like they haven't been before and my guess is a fumble will surely occur.  I think Corbin needs all the breaks like JC got in the championship game a few years ago where Boyle had 5 turnovers, a ton of penalties and a missed extra point by one of the state's best kickers and still only won by a single-point.  Not sure the home field makes much difference as Boyle seems to get more penalties at home than the visitors. 

My percentage: Boyle 73%, Corbin 27%.  Hopefully, it's a good game, well officiated, no one gets hurt and everyone gets home safely.

[BEChargers]

(Qb) 55% Boyle …….45% Corbin
(Rb) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
(Wr) 75% Boyle………25% Corbin
((OL) 60% Corbin…….40% Boyle
(DL) 60% Corbin………40% Boyle
(DE) 65% Corbin………35% Boyle
(LB) 55% Boyle………..45% Corbin
(Db) Boyle 50% ……….50% Corbin
(Special Teams) Boyle 55% Corbin 45%
( PT)*Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
( KT )* Boyle County 80% Corbin 20%
(Assistant Coaches) Boyle 85 Corbin 15%
( Biggest Team ) Corbin 80% Boyle 20%
(Fireworks) Boyle 100%
(Water boy) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Equipment Trainer) Boyle 80% Corbin 20%
(Home field advantage) Boyle 100% Corbin
(Mascot) Boyle 50% Corbin 50%
(Head Coach) Boyle 100% Corbin 0%

* Pt…….Punt returners
* KT……Kick off returners

Lol…..Lol go ahead an chew me up OSH




(

Chain Crew Boyle 99% Corbin 1%

---

I'd like examine the Corbin-Boyle game , not from a score prediction, but from a probability of victory perspective. I know a pretty good majority on here , probably over three-quarters, think Boyle will win. Some have even predicted a blowout.  What I want to hear is the probability number that you would assign to each team chances of winning, with 50%-50% being a complete coin flip and 99.9% to 0.1% being one team has almost no chance of winning.  0%  is not a legitimate assignment of probability because, as we know, this outcome is most certainly not a certainty. 

I think with home field advantage(don't know how much that adds to a team's likelihood of victory) and with a clear coaching advantage, the meter moves well above the 50% mark for Boyle. Even if Corbin is the better team(which may or may not be true), Boyle still gets the edge for being in their home digs and having the better football minds on the sidelines.  If this game were at Corbin , I would have it much closer to 50-50. If it were at Corbin AND Haddix was coaching the Hounds, I would have Corbin at 58+.   But the game is in Danville and Haddix is in black, not red.

In terms of probability I'm thinking Corbin probably maxes out somewhere between 1/3  and 2/5  chance of winning. That's if some things go their way.  They are gonna need some turnovers and some breaks(unless , it turns out they are just simply the better team, which is possible). 

I keep landing on something like :  

Boyle:  68%

Corbin 32%


Btw,  for a neutral field game, Calpreps   has it   Boyle 61%   Corbin 39%.    Again, how much does home field matter?   If you add 6 points for home field, then the calpreps probability goes to 75-25. My assignment of probabilty falls right between the calpreps neutral field prediction and the cal preps 6 points added for home field prediction.  If you add just 3 points for home field, calpreps would have it at 72-28 in favor of the Rebs.

What probabilities would you set for Corbin and Boyle in this big game?


Thanks , in advance, for playing the numbers game.

I thought that if they played the game 10 times Boyle would win either 6/10 or 7/10.  So I guess that means I'd put it at Boyle 65% Corbin 35%.  Just my opinion of course.  


Plus since the game is tomorrow I'll say this.  I've read for 11 months now that Haddix owns Tommy.  I understand the history of Justin's departure as it has been VERY WELL chronicled on this site.  I am very happy that Coach Haddix came to Boyle and I hope he is here for many years to come.  But.........the state championship game last year was VERY close.  One or two plays made the difference.  Boyle didn't have it in hand until the last minute and a half or so.  I think Boyle should win tomorrow and I think they are the best team in 4A if not all classes.  But I don't think they are so good that they don't have to play well to win.  Turnovers, blown coverage's, dropped passes etc is enough to cost you in these types of games.  Boyle, Corbin, PT, CovCath are all capable of winning 4A this year.

[Footballfan33]

This Boyle team is way better than last year. They didn't have both the Brown boys on the team. That being said I still think this games goes down to the wire. Boyle's receivers are way better than the ones they had last year. And faster! Corbin has some dang good ones too. Yeens better get ready for a war. Smith twins said they wanted to beat Frederick Douglass and Boyle a reason why they wanted to move back. And of course win a championship. This is step 2 of 3.

[know1]

My probability estimate/guess is Boyle 75% chance of winning.

I always thought those computer models added 3 points for home field. I didn't think it was 7, but I could be wrong.

[Rebel55]

My probability estimate/guess is Boyle 75% chance of winning.

I always thought those computer models added 3 points for home field. I didn't think it was 7, but I could be wrong.

What ever the advantage is I'll take it.  If these two are equal 50/50 home field pushes the dial over to Boyle.  The Rebels are very fortunate to get this game at their place.  IMO the RPI gods have done Boyle a favor.