[TheRealVille]

AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
To be sure, anything can happen in the coming days to influence the Nov. 6 election.

[Image: http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/RRpBE7...00ced6.jpg]

The AP analysis isn't intended to predict the outcome. Rather, it's meant to provide a snapshot of a race that has been stubbornly close in the small number of competitive states all year. The analysis is based on public polls and internal campaign surveys as well as spending on television advertising, candidate visits, get-out-the-vote organizations and interviews with dozens of Republican and Democratic strategists in Washington and in the most contested states.
The analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama's team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he's paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
"I'm counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!" Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: "I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio."
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before Nov. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until Nov 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state's 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Romney's campaign began airing advertisements last week in Minnesota, arguing he was staking a claim in likely Obama territory. But even GOP strategists acknowledged the move was aimed at hitting voters in western Wisconsin and pressuring Obama to follow suit. By Friday, Obama's campaign had done just that, although the president has a healthy lead in both polling and organization in Minnesota.
"We have to keep working those other states, in case Ohio doesn't come through," said veteran GOP presidential strategist Charlie Black, who is advising Romney's campaign.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney's strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama's criticism of Romney's opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney's position on the aid. Obama's internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio's largely blue-collar electorate.
"That is a killer,'" Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. "And it's going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election."
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that's set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies' $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president's team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney's standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.

http://news.yahoo.com/advantage-obama-hu...ction.html

[Bob Seger]

These polls are certainly all over the place, aren't they?

November 6th is certainly a day that will be full of heartaches and surprises.........lol

[TheRealVille]

These polls are certainly all over the place, aren't they?

November 6th is certainly a day that will be full of heartaches and surprises.........lol

Yea.


BTW, I keep trying to help build your reps back, but it won't let me click it. :biggrin:

[Hoot Gibson]

Obama will be lucky to hang on and win Minnesota and it is not even considered a battleground state. The fact that Obama has not even reached the magic 50 percent number in Minnesota is a bad sign for Obama. He is campaigning like a challenger, not like an incumbent who expects to win.

Obama behaved and continues to behave in a cowardly fashion with regard to the Benghazi terrorist attack. Romney can escalate that issue anytime that he wants and the Obama campaign knows it. I think that Romney will win on his economic and energy plans but if he goes after Obama on Benghazi, our shrinking president has no good answers.

[INDENT]

Minnesota Poll: Obama leading, but Romney sees gains

The president's 3-point lead in state is within poll's margin of error.

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

[/INDENT]

[TheRealVille]

I didn't say he would win. I said the percentage of probability is higher for Obama, and almost all political analysts say the same. One link, Fivethirtyeight lays down a pretty good analysis of how Obama has the better chance. One place I read gave Obama 74% to Romney's 26%. Maybe I even saw it on fivethirtyeight, I can't remember.

[Bob Seger]

Yea.


BTW, I keep trying to help build your reps back, but it won't let me click it. :biggrin:

Well keep tryin. I want to be sure I have a clean record when that next mod job comes open.:biggrin:

[Harry Rex Vonner]

I didn't say he would win. I said the percentage of probability is higher for Obama, and almost all political analysts say the same. One link, Fivethirtyeight lays down a pretty good analysis of how Obama has the better chance. One place I read gave Obama 74% to Romney's 26%. Maybe I even saw it on fivethirtyeight, I can't remember.

Fivethirtyeight is the New York Times. It has no credibility. Of course, you would say Fox News has no credibility. Most likely, we would both be right.

All the media is doing its part for its candidate rather than reporting the news. Romney has Fox News. Kardashian has all the rest.

[TheRealThing]

Yea.


BTW, I keep trying to help build your reps back, but it won't let me click it. :biggrin:

Well keep tryin. I want to be sure I have a clean record when that next mod job comes open.:biggrin:

Somebody's got a lid on it. Nothing happens when I click your rep box either.

[Bob Seger]

Somebody's got a lid on it. Nothing happens when I click your rep box either.

Must be a conspiracy. I'm just glad that WC23 is out there beatin the "Bush's" for my sake.

[TheRealThing]

Obama will be lucky to hang on and win Minnesota and it is not even considered a battleground state. The fact that Obama has not even reached the magic 50 percent number in Minnesota is a bad sign for Obama. He is campaigning like a challenger, not like an incumbent who expects to win.

Obama behaved and continues to behave in a cowardly fashion with regard to the Benghazi terrorist attack. Romney can escalate that issue anytime that he wants and the Obama campaign knows it. I think that Romney will win on his economic and energy plans but if he goes after Obama on Benghazi, our shrinking president has no good answers.

[INDENT][/INDENT]

Obama has all but conceeded Florida, Ohio is an actual dead heat not a statistcal dead heat, Wisconsin is also a tie, Romney is up two in Virginia, up 4 in Colorado, up 5 in North Carolina and Iowa is another tie. On a different front, liberals love candidates who show a gift for lying and getting away with it, as is evident in the Mass Senatorial race between Scott Brown and white girl turned Cherokee indian and Harvard Prof, Elizabeth Warren, who is up 5 on republican encumbent Brown.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Guys, you cant click on the actual little red box.

You have to click on the "rep" tab down next to the quote, reply, and like buttons.

Than you can "add" rep plus a reason...

[TheRealVille]

Guys, you cant click on the actual little red box.

You have to click on the "rep" tab down next to the quote, reply, and like buttons.

Than you can "add" rep plus a reason...

That's what I try to click. I can rep anybody but Bob. Bob, it's a conspiracy, they have your reps blocked.

[RunItUpTheGut]

I can do it, but im a mod nicker: